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> This is very far from the main point: accuracy of the claim that AI will wipe out (in this case health-related) jobs (and/or make health-related services chea

> This is very far from the main point: accuracy of the claim that AI will wipe out (in this case health-related) jobs (and/or make health-related services cheaper). "involved" here is so vague as to be meaningless. Let me rephrase: AI is better at human beings at the sort of pattern-matching work that radiology entails, so the majority of radiologists will be unemployed (I'll say in 20 years, if you want to check back down the line a bit and see how I did). This will both improve patient outcomes (fewer mistakes) and lower costs. Some radiologists will remain in supervisory/research/needing to have a human to rubber stamp type roles. > It may be crystal clear to you that AI will bring the cost of popular education down, but it is not clear to me at all, and adding "clearly" and "obviously" to some future claim does not make it any more convincing. He's trying to work with existing trends and data, you are saying "clearly the trend will reverse just because". I'm not saying anything "just because." I'm saying that technological changes in the form of AI will cause the trend to change, as technological changes have caused numerous economic upheavals. Nonetheless, I will be more specific - AI will give everyone a completely knowledgeable, fully personalized tutor. It will be able to very specifically identify places where a student is having difficulty and create custom exercises that are tailored to not only the subject, but also the student's optimal methods of learning. It will be able to custom tailor curriculum to fit a student's specific knowledge and career goals. The relative inefficiency of the large-scale lecture model of higher education will be so significant that the value it'll retain will just lie in the brand cache of the institute of higher learning (effectively, you passed the Stanford admissions AI's muster, so you're smart).

yourapostasy 4y ago
> ...AI will give everyone a completely knowledgeable, fully personalized tutor. I want to see a GPT-based implementation of A Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer-like open world that constantly teaches. We have a lot of the precursors needed to attempt it and give it a shot.
- weard_beard 4y ago
  This is my life long dream. To get to work on gen1 of something like this. In place of paid mechanical Turk tutors I want to create an epistemological engine consisting of 3 main things: an inventory system of composable pieces of collected knowledge about the game world, a set of story writing design tools to create vignettes and connect pieces of narrative… a kind of narrative procedural generation system, and finally a set of original ui elements to showcase how the “knowbits” can be used to interact with the games narrative. AI will be used for character actors.
john_the_writer 4y ago
I find any time someone uses the word obviously they're either trying to force an opinion, or insulting you. If it is obvious to all, then the word is meant to point out how stupid the listener is. If it's not obvious to all then the speaker is just trying to shut down a conversation. Clearly I'm right about this. It's obvious.
- quijoteuniv 4y ago
  That is common sense and standard practice
twelve40 4y ago
Got it. According to BLS, there are 29,530 radiologists out of 20,736,000 total employed in healthcare in the US. https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes291224.htm https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes291224.htm But, i get the gist of it, we can probably find many more niches that might suffer. My take on the bigger point is, I wouldn't be so sure about the economy-wide apocalypse. I agree with what he said about the outsourcing scare of 2000's, and if pure cost+customization of education, for example, were an issue, you could conceivably hire a very good personal tutor (professor even) from a low-COL English speaking country, even like 15 years ago, or build yourself your own full custom curriculum for free from MIT videos and plentiful other information that has been around forever, mostly for free. Yet, colleges haven't been abandoned, people are taking on more and more debt every year just to be a part of that system. This is probably not technological in nature. Same for healthcare, there are so much money (and technology) getting poured into that but the system keeps getting more expensive and not too much more efficient, will probably start regressing at some point. My personal point of curiosity was that autonomous driving, which 10 years ago was promised to have fully arrived 5 years ago, among other things would have turned 2,000,000 not-very-retrainable-in-such-numbers truck drivers in the US into basically near-homeless people. Well, it hasn't really happened: > from 2020 you will become a permanent backseat driver https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driving-cars-bmw-google-2020-driving https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driv... We've been, too, promised that AI will revolutionize healthcare, e.g. that Watson will replace your doctor (at least, according to the IBM and friends' pitches). Watson turned out to be less than a rounding error in the healthcare equation (i think they got rid of parts of it by now). The point being, to me it's not very clear cut, and some of what MA pointed out seems really to be caused not by inferior pre-ChatGPT technology but for more societal/economical reasons and incentives (perverse or not).
sklivvz1971 4y ago
The statement that "AI is better than human beings at the pattern-matching work of radiology, so the majority of radiologists will be unemployed" oversimplifies the role of radiologists. While AI can assist with pattern matching and improve scan quality, radiologists are doctors who diagnose pathologies based on multiple factors, not just scans. They also interact with patients, make important judgments, and determine when further investigation is necessary, for example. While it is possible in theory for AI to handle these tasks, they are complex and difficult problems to solve. There is currently no evidence to suggest that AI will replace radiologists in the two decades. Therefore, it is important to recognize the valuable role that radiologists play in patient care and not underestimate the challenges that remain in developing AI technology that can effectively replicate their expertise.
- ruszki 4y ago
  > doctors who diagnose pathologies based on multiple factors This is part of “patterns”. Multiple factors are just patterns. > They also interact with patients, make important judgments, and determine when further investigation is necessary, for example. Judgements and determining further investigation can be just output of AIs. Interacting with patient can be important, but as we can and could see, that is not preferred by many people. For example, I used an AI in the past few years for every of my medical problems. It was better than my doctors averagely. I still followed my doctors advices, but they failed many-many times when it wasn’t a simple cold or injury. It’s a matter of time when something will click in my mind and I start to ignore doctors as the first contact points. Especially that there is a good chance that you get an asshole, or an idiot, who just causes more problems (both happened to me way more frequently than it should be acceptable).
- idopmstuff 4y ago
  I am 90% sure this is written by an LLM. The last sentence, particular the fact that it starts with "Therefore" really seals it for me.
  - fallingknife 4y ago
    I am 90% sure that some form of "this was clearly written by ChatGPT" will be the new go to comment for people who don't have a counterargument to people who disagree.

yourapostasy 4y ago

> ...AI will give everyone a completely knowledgeable, fully personalized tutor. I want to see a GPT-based implementation of A Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer-like open world that constantly teaches. We have a lot of the precursors needed to attempt it and give it a shot.

weard_beard 4y ago
This is my life long dream. To get to work on gen1 of something like this. In place of paid mechanical Turk tutors I want to create an epistemological engine consisting of 3 main things: an inventory system of composable pieces of collected knowledge about the game world, a set of story writing design tools to create vignettes and connect pieces of narrative… a kind of narrative procedural generation system, and finally a set of original ui elements to showcase how the “knowbits” can be used to interact with the games narrative. AI will be used for character actors.

john_the_writer 4y ago

I find any time someone uses the word obviously they're either trying to force an opinion, or insulting you. If it is obvious to all, then the word is meant to point out how stupid the listener is. If it's not obvious to all then the speaker is just trying to shut down a conversation. Clearly I'm right about this. It's obvious.

quijoteuniv 4y ago
That is common sense and standard practice

twelve40 4y ago

Got it. According to BLS, there are 29,530 radiologists out of 20,736,000 total employed in healthcare in the US. https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes291224.htm https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes291224.htm But, i get the gist of it, we can probably find many more niches that might suffer. My take on the bigger point is, I wouldn't be so sure about the economy-wide apocalypse. I agree with what he said about the outsourcing scare of 2000's, and if pure cost+customization of education, for example, were an issue, you could conceivably hire a very good personal tutor (professor even) from a low-COL English speaking country, even like 15 years ago, or build yourself your own full custom curriculum for free from MIT videos and plentiful other information that has been around forever, mostly for free. Yet, colleges haven't been abandoned, people are taking on more and more debt every year just to be a part of that system. This is probably not technological in nature. Same for healthcare, there are so much money (and technology) getting poured into that but the system keeps getting more expensive and not too much more efficient, will probably start regressing at some point. My personal point of curiosity was that autonomous driving, which 10 years ago was promised to have fully arrived 5 years ago, among other things would have turned 2,000,000 not-very-retrainable-in-such-numbers truck drivers in the US into basically near-homeless people. Well, it hasn't really happened: > from 2020 you will become a permanent backseat driver https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driving-cars-bmw-google-2020-driving https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driv... We've been, too, promised that AI will revolutionize healthcare, e.g. that Watson will replace your doctor (at least, according to the IBM and friends' pitches). Watson turned out to be less than a rounding error in the healthcare equation (i think they got rid of parts of it by now). The point being, to me it's not very clear cut, and some of what MA pointed out seems really to be caused not by inferior pre-ChatGPT technology but for more societal/economical reasons and incentives (perverse or not).

sklivvz1971 4y ago

The statement that "AI is better than human beings at the pattern-matching work of radiology, so the majority of radiologists will be unemployed" oversimplifies the role of radiologists. While AI can assist with pattern matching and improve scan quality, radiologists are doctors who diagnose pathologies based on multiple factors, not just scans. They also interact with patients, make important judgments, and determine when further investigation is necessary, for example. While it is possible in theory for AI to handle these tasks, they are complex and difficult problems to solve. There is currently no evidence to suggest that AI will replace radiologists in the two decades. Therefore, it is important to recognize the valuable role that radiologists play in patient care and not underestimate the challenges that remain in developing AI technology that can effectively replicate their expertise.

ruszki 4y ago
> doctors who diagnose pathologies based on multiple factors This is part of “patterns”. Multiple factors are just patterns. > They also interact with patients, make important judgments, and determine when further investigation is necessary, for example. Judgements and determining further investigation can be just output of AIs. Interacting with patient can be important, but as we can and could see, that is not preferred by many people. For example, I used an AI in the past few years for every of my medical problems. It was better than my doctors averagely. I still followed my doctors advices, but they failed many-many times when it wasn’t a simple cold or injury. It’s a matter of time when something will click in my mind and I start to ignore doctors as the first contact points. Especially that there is a good chance that you get an asshole, or an idiot, who just causes more problems (both happened to me way more frequently than it should be acceptable).
idopmstuff 4y ago
I am 90% sure this is written by an LLM. The last sentence, particular the fact that it starts with "Therefore" really seals it for me.
- fallingknife 4y ago
  I am 90% sure that some form of "this was clearly written by ChatGPT" will be the new go to comment for people who don't have a counterargument to people who disagree.