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> We had two such anti-technology jobs moral panics in the last 20 years — “outsourcing” enabled by the Internet in the 2000’s, and “robots” in the 2010’s. The

> We had two such anti-technology jobs moral panics in the last 20 years — “outsourcing” enabled by the Internet in the 2000’s, and “robots” in the 2010’s. The result was the best national and global economy in human history in pre-COVID 2019, with the most jobs at the highest wages ever. How much of this economy and growth was real and how much was free money from the FED? We’ve still got all that same stuff now, but the only difference is the free money is gone and things look a lot different. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

paulpauper 4y ago
People overestimate the potency of monetary policy. Japan's central banks had its foot to the pedal for 2 decades and only recently have things gotten better. 0% interest rates is not an elixir for growth. It's not that easy or simple. Same for other countries which had 'easy money' polices but far less success compared to the US, no Facebook or Aamzons coming out of the UK or Germany.
- Mistletoe 4y ago
  Japan is ahead of us in time. What they are we will be. Zero interest rates can’t fix massive debt, a graying population with low population growth, low immigration, and out of control property prices. https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencelight/2021/02/24/will-the-us-end-up-like-japan/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencelight/2021/02/24/will-t...
  - neilwilson 4y ago
    It can. Zero interest rates are the natural rate for money - since it is costless to produce. Therefore that is the optimal rate for the currency issuer. There is no need to pay people not to spend when you can tax them if they do. That's just basic income for rich people. Banks then discount assets into liquidity at a markup over zero and they can be allowed to compete fully and go bust which controls the net interest margin. If you optimise the system so it operates on maximum liquidity then you lower the cost of business investment while selecting for productivity by moving the business to where the people are rather than the other way around. That gets you around the greying population problem without destroying your society - by learning to do more with less. Japan has gone some way down this road, but not entirely.
    - Der_Einzige 4y ago
      "costless to produce" No, making coins or dollars, particularly the type which is resistant to counter-fitting, takes an awful lot of money to produce. Hell, pennies are worth significantly more than their face value, hence why we have people calling to ban the penny all the time!
      - neilwilson 4y ago
        Money is recorded electronically and is near costless to produce. Metalism lost the argument centuries ago. Money is a promise, not a thing.

paulpauper 4y ago

People overestimate the potency of monetary policy. Japan's central banks had its foot to the pedal for 2 decades and only recently have things gotten better. 0% interest rates is not an elixir for growth. It's not that easy or simple. Same for other countries which had 'easy money' polices but far less success compared to the US, no Facebook or Aamzons coming out of the UK or Germany.

Mistletoe 4y ago
Japan is ahead of us in time. What they are we will be. Zero interest rates can’t fix massive debt, a graying population with low population growth, low immigration, and out of control property prices. https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencelight/2021/02/24/will-the-us-end-up-like-japan/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencelight/2021/02/24/will-t...
- neilwilson 4y ago
  It can. Zero interest rates are the natural rate for money - since it is costless to produce. Therefore that is the optimal rate for the currency issuer. There is no need to pay people not to spend when you can tax them if they do. That's just basic income for rich people. Banks then discount assets into liquidity at a markup over zero and they can be allowed to compete fully and go bust which controls the net interest margin. If you optimise the system so it operates on maximum liquidity then you lower the cost of business investment while selecting for productivity by moving the business to where the people are rather than the other way around. That gets you around the greying population problem without destroying your society - by learning to do more with less. Japan has gone some way down this road, but not entirely.
  - Der_Einzige 4y ago
    "costless to produce" No, making coins or dollars, particularly the type which is resistant to counter-fitting, takes an awful lot of money to produce. Hell, pennies are worth significantly more than their face value, hence why we have people calling to ban the penny all the time!
    - neilwilson 4y ago
      Money is recorded electronically and is near costless to produce. Metalism lost the argument centuries ago. Money is a promise, not a thing.