4 ms·

I think the point is more that most people don't know why they succeeded or fail.

superkuh 4y ago
The most predictive reason for failure or success is the commonly referenced https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15659076 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15659076 >Entrepreneurship is like one of those carnival games where you throw darts or something. >Middle class kids can afford one throw. Most miss. A few hit the target and get a small prize. A very few hit the center bullseye and get a bigger prize. Rags to riches! The American Dream lives on. >Rich kids can afford many throws. If they want to, they can try over and over and over again until they hit something and feel good about themselves. Some keep going until they hit the center bullseye, then they give speeches or write blog posts about "meritocracy" and the salutary effects of hard work. >Poor kids aren't visiting the carnival. They're the ones working it.
- dvt 4y ago
  Imo, this is completely false in the realm of software where anyone can launch a new app/project basically every other weekend and feel out what sticks & has traction.
  - thfuran 4y ago
    Did you know that some people spend their weekend working to make rent rather than launching apps that they hope might work?
    - dvt 4y ago
      Of course, but we're not talking about people in poverty, or that are homeless, etc. You're just bringing up a weird red herring that's orthogonal to my point--namely, that the bar is extremely accessible (esp. compared to ventures prior to the advent of computers).
      - thfuran 4y ago
        We aren't? Then next time you mean something other than "completely false", I'd recommend steering clear of the phrase "completely false".
      - giantrobot 4y ago
        More people than just those below the poverty line work on weekends. Launching an app over a weekend is easy...if you've got all of the required skills a priori and the leisure time available to do so. Launching an app over the weekend isn't a viable option for people lacking either of those two components no matter their distance from the poverty line.
      - 8note 4y ago
        Isn't this the same argument though? Youre saying that if you only consider the rich, then there's no difference between the rich and poor experience for making businesses
      - spencerchubb 4y ago
        > but we're not talking about people in poverty Um... the parent comment is in fact talking about that
    - throwawaysleep 4y ago
      If your day job doesn’t pay enough to make rent, you should move to another city.
      - UncleEntity 4y ago
        Seriously? The thing about not being able to make rent is that other things suffer — like being able to move to another city or, you know, eating.
    - renewiltord 4y ago
      This does not sound believable. Even assuming a 2 h / day commute each way, this person is working 56 h weeks with 28 h of commute? Introduce me to this poor person doing this (if they're within 50 mi of 94103) and if they have 2800 h of wages to show for last year, I will pay $1k just to talk to them for 2 h in a place of their convenience at a time of their convenience. I think it's much more likely that people who are too poor to participate cannot participate in gainful labour in a predictable fashion, i.e. their employment is sporadic, or shifts are unpredictable, or they are seasonal labour. i.e. they are not time-constrained, they are employment-constrained.
      - mrcrumb1 4y ago
        Surely you're aware that children and debt exist.
        renewiltord 4y ago
        Okay, it's true. People can make choices that close doors for them. That part is true.
  - dmitriid 4y ago
    That anyone at the very least needs access to a smartphone, powerful-enough computer, and internet. 18% of households in the US say they can't afford home internet service: https://ntia.gov/blog/2022/switched-why-are-one-five-us-households-not-online https://ntia.gov/blog/2022/switched-why-are-one-five-us-hous...
    - dvt 4y ago
      Not sure what this has to do with anything; my point was just that the bar is much more accessible, generally speaking, than it was prior to software being a thing. It wasn't some grand thesis about the affordability of internet or larger social problems (housing, poverty, etc.). Seems like you're just trying to grandstand.
    - riku_iki 4y ago
      > 18% of households in the US say they can't afford home internet service very hardly believable, unless they are chronically unemployed.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
toss1 4y ago
Plus, the fact that having the winning lottery ticket numbers being your parents' telephone number, means that you can fail quietly until you succeed, then everyone sees the success. Corollary: Nearly every "overnight success" happens 'overnight', sure. But the 'overnight' period is after decades of slogging it out in the trenches of obscurity. The ability to freely take risks with life with high potential payoffs is partly attitude, and partly being able to get up on the high wire with a net underneath, so you can try again until you succeed. Many end up succeeding without really knowing why, or noticing that they had the net to keep trying until they did.

The most predictive reason for failure or success is the commonly referenced https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15659076 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15659076 >Entrepreneurship is like one of those carnival games where you throw darts or something. >Middle class kids can afford one throw. Most miss. A few hit the target and get a small prize. A very few hit the center bullseye and get a bigger prize. Rags to riches! The American Dream lives on. >Rich kids can afford many throws. If they want to, they can try over and over and over again until they hit something and feel good about themselves. Some keep going until they hit the center bullseye, then they give speeches or write blog posts about "meritocracy" and the salutary effects of hard work. >Poor kids aren't visiting the carnival. They're the ones working it.

dvt 4y ago
Imo, this is completely false in the realm of software where anyone can launch a new app/project basically every other weekend and feel out what sticks & has traction.
- thfuran 4y ago
  Did you know that some people spend their weekend working to make rent rather than launching apps that they hope might work?
  - dvt 4y ago
    Of course, but we're not talking about people in poverty, or that are homeless, etc. You're just bringing up a weird red herring that's orthogonal to my point--namely, that the bar is extremely accessible (esp. compared to ventures prior to the advent of computers).
    - thfuran 4y ago
      We aren't? Then next time you mean something other than "completely false", I'd recommend steering clear of the phrase "completely false".
    - giantrobot 4y ago
      More people than just those below the poverty line work on weekends. Launching an app over a weekend is easy...if you've got all of the required skills a priori and the leisure time available to do so. Launching an app over the weekend isn't a viable option for people lacking either of those two components no matter their distance from the poverty line.
    - 8note 4y ago
      Isn't this the same argument though? Youre saying that if you only consider the rich, then there's no difference between the rich and poor experience for making businesses
    - spencerchubb 4y ago
      > but we're not talking about people in poverty Um... the parent comment is in fact talking about that
  - throwawaysleep 4y ago
    If your day job doesn’t pay enough to make rent, you should move to another city.
    - UncleEntity 4y ago
      Seriously? The thing about not being able to make rent is that other things suffer — like being able to move to another city or, you know, eating.
  - renewiltord 4y ago
    This does not sound believable. Even assuming a 2 h / day commute each way, this person is working 56 h weeks with 28 h of commute? Introduce me to this poor person doing this (if they're within 50 mi of 94103) and if they have 2800 h of wages to show for last year, I will pay $1k just to talk to them for 2 h in a place of their convenience at a time of their convenience. I think it's much more likely that people who are too poor to participate cannot participate in gainful labour in a predictable fashion, i.e. their employment is sporadic, or shifts are unpredictable, or they are seasonal labour. i.e. they are not time-constrained, they are employment-constrained.
    - mrcrumb1 4y ago
      Surely you're aware that children and debt exist.
      - renewiltord 4y ago
        Okay, it's true. People can make choices that close doors for them. That part is true.
- dmitriid 4y ago
  That anyone at the very least needs access to a smartphone, powerful-enough computer, and internet. 18% of households in the US say they can't afford home internet service: https://ntia.gov/blog/2022/switched-why-are-one-five-us-households-not-online https://ntia.gov/blog/2022/switched-why-are-one-five-us-hous...
  - dvt 4y ago
    Not sure what this has to do with anything; my point was just that the bar is much more accessible, generally speaking, than it was prior to software being a thing. It wasn't some grand thesis about the affordability of internet or larger social problems (housing, poverty, etc.). Seems like you're just trying to grandstand.
  - riku_iki 4y ago
    > 18% of households in the US say they can't afford home internet service very hardly believable, unless they are chronically unemployed.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

toss1 4y ago

Plus, the fact that having the winning lottery ticket numbers being your parents' telephone number, means that you can fail quietly until you succeed, then everyone sees the success. Corollary: Nearly every "overnight success" happens 'overnight', sure. But the 'overnight' period is after decades of slogging it out in the trenches of obscurity. The ability to freely take risks with life with high potential payoffs is partly attitude, and partly being able to get up on the high wire with a net underneath, so you can try again until you succeed. Many end up succeeding without really knowing why, or noticing that they had the net to keep trying until they did.