4 ms·

Absolute cope in the twitter comments, and it's weird seeing this on HN, which (at least historically) was a pretty entrepreneur-friendly forum. Yes, we get it,

by dvt 4y ago

Absolute cope in the twitter comments, and it's weird seeing this on HN, which (at least historically) was a pretty entrepreneur-friendly forum. Yes, we get it, Zuck and Gates and Jobs were "lucky." But that doesn't mean starting a business is like going to the race track, and this extreme oversimplification reminds me of equally-reductive positions (solipsism, nihilism, etc.) where zero knowledge is imparted, and therefore zero knowledge is gained.

SahAssar 4y ago
I think the point is more that most people don't know why they succeeded or fail.
- superkuh 4y ago
  The most predictive reason for failure or success is the commonly referenced https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15659076 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15659076 >Entrepreneurship is like one of those carnival games where you throw darts or something. >Middle class kids can afford one throw. Most miss. A few hit the target and get a small prize. A very few hit the center bullseye and get a bigger prize. Rags to riches! The American Dream lives on. >Rich kids can afford many throws. If they want to, they can try over and over and over again until they hit something and feel good about themselves. Some keep going until they hit the center bullseye, then they give speeches or write blog posts about "meritocracy" and the salutary effects of hard work. >Poor kids aren't visiting the carnival. They're the ones working it.
  - dvt 4y ago
    Imo, this is completely false in the realm of software where anyone can launch a new app/project basically every other weekend and feel out what sticks & has traction.
    - thfuran 4y ago
      Did you know that some people spend their weekend working to make rent rather than launching apps that they hope might work?
      - dvt 4y ago
        Of course, but we're not talking about people in poverty, or that are homeless, etc. You're just bringing up a weird red herring that's orthogonal to my point--namely, that the bar is extremely accessible (esp. compared to ventures prior to the advent of computers).
        thfuran 4y ago
        We aren't? Then next time you mean something other than "completely false", I'd recommend steering clear of the phrase "completely false".
        giantrobot 4y ago
        More people than just those below the poverty line work on weekends. Launching an app over a weekend is easy...if you've got all of the required skills a priori and the leisure time available to do so. Launching an app over the weekend isn't a viable option for people lacking either of those two components no matter their distance from the poverty line.
        8note 4y ago
        Isn't this the same argument though? Youre saying that if you only consider the rich, then there's no difference between the rich and poor experience for making businesses
        spencerchubb 4y ago
        > but we're not talking about people in poverty Um... the parent comment is in fact talking about that
      - throwawaysleep 4y ago
        If your day job doesn’t pay enough to make rent, you should move to another city.
    - dmitriid 4y ago
      That anyone at the very least needs access to a smartphone, powerful-enough computer, and internet. 18% of households in the US say they can't afford home internet service: https://ntia.gov/blog/2022/switched-why-are-one-five-us-households-not-online https://ntia.gov/blog/2022/switched-why-are-one-five-us-hous...
      - dvt 4y ago
        Not sure what this has to do with anything; my point was just that the bar is much more accessible, generally speaking, than it was prior to software being a thing. It wasn't some grand thesis about the affordability of internet or larger social problems (housing, poverty, etc.). Seems like you're just trying to grandstand.
      - riku_iki 4y ago
        > 18% of households in the US say they can't afford home internet service very hardly believable, unless they are chronically unemployed.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
- toss1 4y ago
  Plus, the fact that having the winning lottery ticket numbers being your parents' telephone number, means that you can fail quietly until you succeed, then everyone sees the success. Corollary: Nearly every "overnight success" happens 'overnight', sure. But the 'overnight' period is after decades of slogging it out in the trenches of obscurity. The ability to freely take risks with life with high potential payoffs is partly attitude, and partly being able to get up on the high wire with a net underneath, so you can try again until you succeed. Many end up succeeding without really knowing why, or noticing that they had the net to keep trying until they did.
jiveturkey 4y ago
I'm going to disagree; it is like going to the race track (I assume you mean horses). You might just be lucky, period, and still succeed. (Lightning does strike. ha, great name for a horse.) But your chances are FAR better if you are well prepared, know the stats, know the jockeys, have inside info on what a horse has been fed, maybe even that morning, and so on. You might be able to rig things in your favor via inside connections. But even with all your "skills" lined up, you still need luck and lots of it. I think what I'm taking issue with is your statement that winning at the race track is _mere_ luck. No, like being a successful entrepeneur, it also requires lots of preparation. Twitter by its nature is reductive. The position of the author here should really be read as: I know the other 5 lotto numbers. (baseline for a chance at success.) Now here is the 6th number, the random and lucky part that I'm taking credit for and that won't be reproducible by you.
- chmod600 4y ago
  "But your chances are FAR better if you are well prepared, know the stats..." Gambling is zero sum. Businesses, even failed ones, generally do some positive things along the way. Learning to do things that are useful and getting paid for them is really different from learning some useless information that happens to help you win at the expense of others.
  - jiveturkey 4y ago
    I generally have to agree with you, except for your denigration of betting. If it sharpens your analytical skills it isn't useless. And besides that, there is entertainment value. The "expense" comes against other willing bettors (addicted ones excepted perhaps -- but then lets also exclude negative value businesses like juicero, or basic supply hoarders during covid). Your characterization seems a bit extreme. Anyway, to be clear, this isn't the point I was arguing. Whether zero sum vs positive sum, where any benefit might lie (value to society, or to anyone at all) is not my point. It's that skill is clearly involved in both activities, as well as a large luck factor. Not only did I not like the race track analogy, I found the critical reading of the tweet to be too narrow to be useful. For the record and again, I generally agree with your comment. But as a reply to my own, I think you went off base from my argument.
hash872 4y ago
Agreed. If Jeff Bezos started over in a non-tech industry, with no money or previous connections, is the author arguing that his chances at being successful in say a garden supply or waste management company the same as any other person? That seems absurd. If entrepreneurs have no useful advice then there's no right or wrong way to structure or run a company, it's all random and any method will do. Just generalizing from other fields of study we know this isn't true anywhere else, so why would it be true for running a business?
- notahacker 4y ago
  If Jeff Bezos started off in a garden supply or waste management company then his chances of being successful would be well above average, but his chances of being successful enough for anyone in HN to care about what he had to say would be the same zero as anyone else looking to operate in those industries. What he had to say about would probably be quite different too...
- scarface74 4y ago
  Or if Elon Musk tried to buy a social media company it would be successful?
  - berniedurfee 4y ago
    It doesn’t appear that success is his necessarily his primary goal with Twitter.
adw 4y ago
It really isn’t, but not in the way you think. Starting a business is a _demonstrably_ worse idea than informed gambling. Winning at horses is much lower variance, is easier to learn, and depends enormously less on accidents of upbringing and social class. VC has historically been a fallback for people who couldn’t hack it in proper finance, and while that’s a little unfair, it’s only a little unfair.
- adw 4y ago
  (Note that “winning at horses” is not significantly different from “winning at hedge funds”.)

by dvt 4y ago

SahAssar 4y ago

I think the point is more that most people don't know why they succeeded or fail.

superkuh 4y ago
The most predictive reason for failure or success is the commonly referenced https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15659076 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15659076 >Entrepreneurship is like one of those carnival games where you throw darts or something. >Middle class kids can afford one throw. Most miss. A few hit the target and get a small prize. A very few hit the center bullseye and get a bigger prize. Rags to riches! The American Dream lives on. >Rich kids can afford many throws. If they want to, they can try over and over and over again until they hit something and feel good about themselves. Some keep going until they hit the center bullseye, then they give speeches or write blog posts about "meritocracy" and the salutary effects of hard work. >Poor kids aren't visiting the carnival. They're the ones working it.
- dvt 4y ago
  Imo, this is completely false in the realm of software where anyone can launch a new app/project basically every other weekend and feel out what sticks & has traction.
  - thfuran 4y ago
    Did you know that some people spend their weekend working to make rent rather than launching apps that they hope might work?
    - dvt 4y ago
      Of course, but we're not talking about people in poverty, or that are homeless, etc. You're just bringing up a weird red herring that's orthogonal to my point--namely, that the bar is extremely accessible (esp. compared to ventures prior to the advent of computers).
      - thfuran 4y ago
        We aren't? Then next time you mean something other than "completely false", I'd recommend steering clear of the phrase "completely false".
      - giantrobot 4y ago
        More people than just those below the poverty line work on weekends. Launching an app over a weekend is easy...if you've got all of the required skills a priori and the leisure time available to do so. Launching an app over the weekend isn't a viable option for people lacking either of those two components no matter their distance from the poverty line.
      - 8note 4y ago
        Isn't this the same argument though? Youre saying that if you only consider the rich, then there's no difference between the rich and poor experience for making businesses
      - spencerchubb 4y ago
        > but we're not talking about people in poverty Um... the parent comment is in fact talking about that
    - throwawaysleep 4y ago
      If your day job doesn’t pay enough to make rent, you should move to another city.
  - dmitriid 4y ago
    That anyone at the very least needs access to a smartphone, powerful-enough computer, and internet. 18% of households in the US say they can't afford home internet service: https://ntia.gov/blog/2022/switched-why-are-one-five-us-households-not-online https://ntia.gov/blog/2022/switched-why-are-one-five-us-hous...
    - dvt 4y ago
      Not sure what this has to do with anything; my point was just that the bar is much more accessible, generally speaking, than it was prior to software being a thing. It wasn't some grand thesis about the affordability of internet or larger social problems (housing, poverty, etc.). Seems like you're just trying to grandstand.
    - riku_iki 4y ago
      > 18% of households in the US say they can't afford home internet service very hardly believable, unless they are chronically unemployed.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
toss1 4y ago
Plus, the fact that having the winning lottery ticket numbers being your parents' telephone number, means that you can fail quietly until you succeed, then everyone sees the success. Corollary: Nearly every "overnight success" happens 'overnight', sure. But the 'overnight' period is after decades of slogging it out in the trenches of obscurity. The ability to freely take risks with life with high potential payoffs is partly attitude, and partly being able to get up on the high wire with a net underneath, so you can try again until you succeed. Many end up succeeding without really knowing why, or noticing that they had the net to keep trying until they did.

jiveturkey 4y ago

I'm going to disagree; it is like going to the race track (I assume you mean horses). You might just be lucky, period, and still succeed. (Lightning does strike. ha, great name for a horse.) But your chances are FAR better if you are well prepared, know the stats, know the jockeys, have inside info on what a horse has been fed, maybe even that morning, and so on. You might be able to rig things in your favor via inside connections. But even with all your "skills" lined up, you still need luck and lots of it. I think what I'm taking issue with is your statement that winning at the race track is _mere_ luck. No, like being a successful entrepeneur, it also requires lots of preparation. Twitter by its nature is reductive. The position of the author here should really be read as: I know the other 5 lotto numbers. (baseline for a chance at success.) Now here is the 6th number, the random and lucky part that I'm taking credit for and that won't be reproducible by you.

chmod600 4y ago
"But your chances are FAR better if you are well prepared, know the stats..." Gambling is zero sum. Businesses, even failed ones, generally do some positive things along the way. Learning to do things that are useful and getting paid for them is really different from learning some useless information that happens to help you win at the expense of others.
- jiveturkey 4y ago
  I generally have to agree with you, except for your denigration of betting. If it sharpens your analytical skills it isn't useless. And besides that, there is entertainment value. The "expense" comes against other willing bettors (addicted ones excepted perhaps -- but then lets also exclude negative value businesses like juicero, or basic supply hoarders during covid). Your characterization seems a bit extreme. Anyway, to be clear, this isn't the point I was arguing. Whether zero sum vs positive sum, where any benefit might lie (value to society, or to anyone at all) is not my point. It's that skill is clearly involved in both activities, as well as a large luck factor. Not only did I not like the race track analogy, I found the critical reading of the tweet to be too narrow to be useful. For the record and again, I generally agree with your comment. But as a reply to my own, I think you went off base from my argument.

hash872 4y ago

Agreed. If Jeff Bezos started over in a non-tech industry, with no money or previous connections, is the author arguing that his chances at being successful in say a garden supply or waste management company the same as any other person? That seems absurd. If entrepreneurs have no useful advice then there's no right or wrong way to structure or run a company, it's all random and any method will do. Just generalizing from other fields of study we know this isn't true anywhere else, so why would it be true for running a business?

notahacker 4y ago
If Jeff Bezos started off in a garden supply or waste management company then his chances of being successful would be well above average, but his chances of being successful enough for anyone in HN to care about what he had to say would be the same zero as anyone else looking to operate in those industries. What he had to say about would probably be quite different too...
scarface74 4y ago
Or if Elon Musk tried to buy a social media company it would be successful?
- berniedurfee 4y ago
  It doesn’t appear that success is his necessarily his primary goal with Twitter.

adw 4y ago

It really isn’t, but not in the way you think. Starting a business is a _demonstrably_ worse idea than informed gambling. Winning at horses is much lower variance, is easier to learn, and depends enormously less on accidents of upbringing and social class. VC has historically been a fallback for people who couldn’t hack it in proper finance, and while that’s a little unfair, it’s only a little unfair.

adw 4y ago
(Note that “winning at horses” is not significantly different from “winning at hedge funds”.)