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norway is the only example of someone who broke the curse. Saudi, gulf monarchies and all other examples that you can come up with(except maybe russia, but it's
by seniorivn 4y ago
norway is the only example of someone who broke the curse.
Saudi, gulf monarchies and all other examples that you can come up with(except maybe russia, but it's a very big and not that simple to analyze), either already fucked by the curse, or still in the process(which is pleasant enough, so most people think it's ok), the metric is that other parts of the economy have meaningless growth rate compared to resources extraction, at best. Sometimes it's negative. Add growth of corruption and inequality to that as well.
- ars 4y agoActually Norway did not break the curse. Their economy is pretty much exclusively oil-based, very few other industries. If you run the numbers their fund will fund current expenses for only a decade or so if oil stopped completely. Which isn't really enough time to start other industries for their citizens to have jobs. So they're basically completely dependent on oil, with maybe a short runway for afterwards. They did not break the curse.
- seniorivn 4y agoyou argue that the curse is to have majority of your economy oil/resource extraction related businesses. But my point is that the curse is that there is a stimulus to stop doing any other businesses. And it seems that Norway has largely avoided that by forcing as much oil money as possible out of the economy(oil fund)
- ars 4y agoThey haven't though. They aren't doing any other business. They are saving money for the bad time, sure, and that's good. But they are still locked into the curse - the basically is no other economy.
- aidenn0 4y agoArguably the USSR was destroyed by the curse, but again it was even bigger than Russia and not that simple to analyze.