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This post seemed weird. There's a pretty broad range of possible outcomes, from apocalypse to lost jobs to utopia to little changing at all. This is arguing p

by blagie 4y ago

This post seemed weird. There's a pretty broad range of possible outcomes, from apocalypse to lost jobs to utopia to little changing at all. This is arguing presuming a high level of certainty in one of those outcomes.

autoexec 4y ago
> There's a pretty broad range of possible outcomes, from apocalypse to lost jobs to utopia to little changing at all. This is arguing presuming a high level of certainty in one of those outcomes. Sadly, I don't see much evidence that we're moving into a utopia, but I see plenty of evidence that AI, as it exists and is being used today, is already hurting people. It's nice to think that everyone should be optimistic, but when we aren't doing anything to make sure that people aren't being exploited today it doesn't inspire much hope that exploitation won't happen tomorrow. The quality of life in America is declining, and people are watching their children struggle in ways that they or their parents never had to. That's not even a US only phenomenon. A record 70% of adults globally believe that their children will be worse off than they were. Starry-eyed optimism might be a bit too much to ask from people at this point.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- Nasrudith 4y ago
  In defense of utopias plausibility (really realistically defined as getting much better), their entire modus operendi is going from "obscure parlor trick with marginal impact" to "world changing" and seeming to come from nowhere to anybody who wasn't attuned to a previously obscure field. The green revolution averted "inevitable starvation and widespread war from lack of resources". Revolutionary changes basically like to ambush people by definition. Public sentiment is also a pretty damn unreliable predictor of improvements.
  - petra 4y ago
    Technical revolutions are unexcpected. Political revolutions are the results of a long struggle, usually. Is there a technical solution to the possibilty of mass job loss?
- mistermann 4y ago
  > Sadly, I don't see much evidence that we're moving into a utopia... Be careful with that approach though! Who knows what strange and mysterious things might be happening behind the scenes. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-phrase-no-evidence-is-a-red-flag https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-phrase-no-evidence... > but I see plenty of evidence that AI, as it exists and is being used today, is already hurting people. Never mind AI hurting people, what about people hurting people!!?? > Starry-eyed optimism might be a bit too much to ask from people at this point. I agree, but look at the bright side: humans are highly upgradable!
esperent 4y ago
> This post seemed weird It's from the Less Wrong community. You can recognize the tone immediately and I completely agree, something about it, about nearly all the writing there, seems a bit weird. And it's not just typical in group phrasing that makes it so. It's the hyperbole and the unending layers of unexplained assumptions that you're supposed to accept, and if questioned you get referred back to this original text which was a Harry Potter fanfiction or something, which you're also supposed to just accept and have entirely memorized before you can join in the discussion. Kinda sounds like a religion, now that I think about it. Anyone want to bet that in a couple of decades Less Wrong will have morphed into some kind of cult?
- taneq 4y ago
  Yeah but have you read the fanfic? Because it has its fanfic-y flaws but it’s not half bad.
- blagie 4y ago
  I think you're being overly harsh. That describes literally every culture in the world: There is a ton of mutually-held assumptions, and if you don't buy into them, you look weird. I like diving into different cultures since they help me find assumptions like this one in my own. I've found the Less Wrong community to start from a fairly sound and rational set of assumptions, often different than my own, but interesting nonetheless. The few times I've engaged, I learned a lot from it. It's certainly less cult-ish than either the far-left or far-right the US seems to be degenerating into, or many other cultures. I didn't like this post, but it's about a post, and not about a group of people.

by blagie 4y ago

autoexec 4y ago

> There's a pretty broad range of possible outcomes, from apocalypse to lost jobs to utopia to little changing at all. This is arguing presuming a high level of certainty in one of those outcomes. Sadly, I don't see much evidence that we're moving into a utopia, but I see plenty of evidence that AI, as it exists and is being used today, is already hurting people. It's nice to think that everyone should be optimistic, but when we aren't doing anything to make sure that people aren't being exploited today it doesn't inspire much hope that exploitation won't happen tomorrow. The quality of life in America is declining, and people are watching their children struggle in ways that they or their parents never had to. That's not even a US only phenomenon. A record 70% of adults globally believe that their children will be worse off than they were. Starry-eyed optimism might be a bit too much to ask from people at this point.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
Nasrudith 4y ago
In defense of utopias plausibility (really realistically defined as getting much better), their entire modus operendi is going from "obscure parlor trick with marginal impact" to "world changing" and seeming to come from nowhere to anybody who wasn't attuned to a previously obscure field. The green revolution averted "inevitable starvation and widespread war from lack of resources". Revolutionary changes basically like to ambush people by definition. Public sentiment is also a pretty damn unreliable predictor of improvements.
- petra 4y ago
  Technical revolutions are unexcpected. Political revolutions are the results of a long struggle, usually. Is there a technical solution to the possibilty of mass job loss?
mistermann 4y ago
> Sadly, I don't see much evidence that we're moving into a utopia... Be careful with that approach though! Who knows what strange and mysterious things might be happening behind the scenes. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-phrase-no-evidence-is-a-red-flag https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-phrase-no-evidence... > but I see plenty of evidence that AI, as it exists and is being used today, is already hurting people. Never mind AI hurting people, what about people hurting people!!?? > Starry-eyed optimism might be a bit too much to ask from people at this point. I agree, but look at the bright side: humans are highly upgradable!

esperent 4y ago

> This post seemed weird It's from the Less Wrong community. You can recognize the tone immediately and I completely agree, something about it, about nearly all the writing there, seems a bit weird. And it's not just typical in group phrasing that makes it so. It's the hyperbole and the unending layers of unexplained assumptions that you're supposed to accept, and if questioned you get referred back to this original text which was a Harry Potter fanfiction or something, which you're also supposed to just accept and have entirely memorized before you can join in the discussion. Kinda sounds like a religion, now that I think about it. Anyone want to bet that in a couple of decades Less Wrong will have morphed into some kind of cult?

taneq 4y ago
Yeah but have you read the fanfic? Because it has its fanfic-y flaws but it’s not half bad.
blagie 4y ago
I think you're being overly harsh. That describes literally every culture in the world: There is a ton of mutually-held assumptions, and if you don't buy into them, you look weird. I like diving into different cultures since they help me find assumptions like this one in my own. I've found the Less Wrong community to start from a fairly sound and rational set of assumptions, often different than my own, but interesting nonetheless. The few times I've engaged, I learned a lot from it. It's certainly less cult-ish than either the far-left or far-right the US seems to be degenerating into, or many other cultures. I didn't like this post, but it's about a post, and not about a group of people.