4 ms·

Meanwhile, ASPI just published a report saying that China is on track to dominate development of critical future technologies, with China already beating the US

Meanwhile, ASPI just published a report saying that China is on track to dominate development of critical future technologies, with China already beating the US in 37 of 44 such technologies https://web.archive.org/web/20230302110306/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-02/china-critical-future-technologies-west-aspi-report/102041318 https://web.archive.org/web/20230302110306/https://www.abc.n... China has also now overtaken the US in both quantity and quality of research https://physicsworld.com/a/china-overtakes-the-us-in-terms-of-research-quality-finds-study/ https://physicsworld.com/a/china-overtakes-the-us-in-terms-o... Given that China has a population of 1.4 billion people, excellent education system, and the best streamlined industrial machine in the world, it seems like sheer idiocy to think that US can hold back China's development using these sorts of stunts.

senttoschool 4y ago
China has also now overtaken the US in both quantity and quality of research A huge portion of US science is actually done by Chinese studying here or Chinese Americans. Take any research paper published in the US and there's a decent chance you will see a Chinese last name associated with the paper. Instead of making it a great place for these people to do research, stay and live in the US, the US government and media are actively trying to tell Chinese and Chinese Americans that they don't belong here.
- yogthos 4y ago
  That's another important point to keep in mind. A lot of US intellectual capital actually comes from China which is now a peer competitor for US. As US starts drumming up Yellow Peril 2.0, a lot of these people are going to go back to China. This is a very different situation from the Cold War when scientists and engineers who defected from USSR didn't want to go back. Large portion of Chinese people living in the west have a positive view of China, and as they see the rise of racism and prosecution then they'll just move to China where they can get same kinds of cushy jobs. This is already happening by the way. A study found that at least 1,400 US-based ethnic Chinese scientists exited American institutions for mainland China https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3196554/least-1400-us-based-ethnic-chinese-scientists-exited-american-institutions-mainland-study https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3196554/least-1400-u...
  - credit_guy 4y ago
    You are right and it is a bit sad. I was talking yesterday with a Chinese friend. If you are a highly educated Chinese in America, the present time is not the best of times. China is sliding towards autocracy. The rift between China and America widens every day. If you go back to visit your family, you are not 100% certain you'll get your US visa renewed. If you do, it might take two months. Add to that the fact that some part of the US population has anti-Asian sentiments (fortunately, the majority of the American people are solidly anti-racist, but the exceptions do bother you).
credit_guy 4y ago
The US has a lot of allies. If you count the EU, Ukraine, Turkey, Australia, Canada, New Zeeland, South Korea, Japan, you probably get to one billion. Add India in the mix, and the pool of talent available to the US exceeds easily what's available for China.
- senttoschool 4y ago
  When other countries depend on China more, then they will switch allegiance. SK and Japan are next to China. They're also East Asians. In the next 20 years, it won't surprise me one bit to see SK and Japan ally with China. Manufacturing, tech, huge market, and a forceful military can make countries switch allegiances. This is basically how the US got SK and Japan as allies even though the US has bombed both countries.
  - yogthos 4y ago
    In fact, both Japan and SK are pissed at US over CHIPS act right now because China is a huge market that eclipses the US. As US keeps using coercive measures that will necessarily drive allies away.
- yogthos 4y ago
  India is a competitor to the US, Turkey is increasingly becoming hostile towards the west. Ukraine is largely destroyed, and whatever is left will be a Russian puppet regime. EU is being devastated economically https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Quarterly_registrations_of_new_businesses_and_declarations_of_bankruptcies_-_statistics&oldid=566090 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php... Canada, Australia, and NZ are minor players in terms of technology and industry. Meanwhile, most countries already have greater economic ties with China than with US https://www.visualcapitalist.com/china-u-s-worlds-trading-partner/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/china-u-s-worlds-trading-pa... Economic ties are ultimately what drives policy for most countries, and countries that don't prioritize economic interests aren't going to be doing well for obvious reasons.

senttoschool 4y ago

China has also now overtaken the US in both quantity and quality of research A huge portion of US science is actually done by Chinese studying here or Chinese Americans. Take any research paper published in the US and there's a decent chance you will see a Chinese last name associated with the paper. Instead of making it a great place for these people to do research, stay and live in the US, the US government and media are actively trying to tell Chinese and Chinese Americans that they don't belong here.

yogthos 4y ago
That's another important point to keep in mind. A lot of US intellectual capital actually comes from China which is now a peer competitor for US. As US starts drumming up Yellow Peril 2.0, a lot of these people are going to go back to China. This is a very different situation from the Cold War when scientists and engineers who defected from USSR didn't want to go back. Large portion of Chinese people living in the west have a positive view of China, and as they see the rise of racism and prosecution then they'll just move to China where they can get same kinds of cushy jobs. This is already happening by the way. A study found that at least 1,400 US-based ethnic Chinese scientists exited American institutions for mainland China https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3196554/least-1400-us-based-ethnic-chinese-scientists-exited-american-institutions-mainland-study https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3196554/least-1400-u...
- credit_guy 4y ago
  You are right and it is a bit sad. I was talking yesterday with a Chinese friend. If you are a highly educated Chinese in America, the present time is not the best of times. China is sliding towards autocracy. The rift between China and America widens every day. If you go back to visit your family, you are not 100% certain you'll get your US visa renewed. If you do, it might take two months. Add to that the fact that some part of the US population has anti-Asian sentiments (fortunately, the majority of the American people are solidly anti-racist, but the exceptions do bother you).

credit_guy 4y ago

The US has a lot of allies. If you count the EU, Ukraine, Turkey, Australia, Canada, New Zeeland, South Korea, Japan, you probably get to one billion. Add India in the mix, and the pool of talent available to the US exceeds easily what's available for China.

senttoschool 4y ago
When other countries depend on China more, then they will switch allegiance. SK and Japan are next to China. They're also East Asians. In the next 20 years, it won't surprise me one bit to see SK and Japan ally with China. Manufacturing, tech, huge market, and a forceful military can make countries switch allegiances. This is basically how the US got SK and Japan as allies even though the US has bombed both countries.
- yogthos 4y ago
  In fact, both Japan and SK are pissed at US over CHIPS act right now because China is a huge market that eclipses the US. As US keeps using coercive measures that will necessarily drive allies away.
yogthos 4y ago
India is a competitor to the US, Turkey is increasingly becoming hostile towards the west. Ukraine is largely destroyed, and whatever is left will be a Russian puppet regime. EU is being devastated economically https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Quarterly_registrations_of_new_businesses_and_declarations_of_bankruptcies_-_statistics&oldid=566090 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php... Canada, Australia, and NZ are minor players in terms of technology and industry. Meanwhile, most countries already have greater economic ties with China than with US https://www.visualcapitalist.com/china-u-s-worlds-trading-partner/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/china-u-s-worlds-trading-pa... Economic ties are ultimately what drives policy for most countries, and countries that don't prioritize economic interests aren't going to be doing well for obvious reasons.