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Always remember when reasoning about, and making assertions about, what AI/ML will be capable of, and hence how it will impact existing conventions, institution
by aaroninsf 4y ago
Always remember when reasoning about, and making assertions about, what AI/ML will be capable of, and hence how it will impact existing conventions, institutions, disciplines, etc.,
to account for the fact that what is possible and commercial today, is characterized by non-linear patterns of change in any dimension you choose. More capable, cheaper, faster, everything.
Consequently whenever you find yourself asserting what will be possible, or how we might be integrating, the systems of more than N months hence,
consider that you may be not accounting for exponential and generational change, not to mention disruptive black swan events from external domains.
TLDR modulo show-stopper from eg nuclear war, political dissolution, and climate crises, we are entering a moment of extraordinary disequilibrium, in which most of the world we inhabit will be upended and have to find new equilibrium.
- aaroninsf 4y agoIn the case of this article, the application of my broader point would be, whatever we can say about the utility of LLM to generate intentional or unwitting disinformation, is already behind the curve. It's essentially a historical note. Example: Wikipedia has a position statement about LLM. It was done in a hurry by smart people. It's already woefully out of date. Things are moving too fast.
- jprete 4y agoI really don’t understand why people are so enthusiastic to cross the Rubicon without even looking.