5 ms·

Fed needs a recession to win inflation fight, study shows

26 points by pera 4y ago

downrightmike 4y ago
But they need inflation to payoff the trillions they just printed and to service foreign debt.
- Red_Leaves_Flyy 4y ago
  Rock meet hard place. If history is anything to go by, the proletariat will suffer for these entirely preventable and repetitive acts of overt corruption.
- cyanydeez 4y ago
  They've been printing since 2008. The trouble was giving money to the plebs to be price gouged.
globalreset 4y ago
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND ; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M318501Q027NBEA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M318501Q027NBEA ; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA ; Recession is just going to make the gov income lower, spending higher. There's no getting out of it now.
- Ancalagon 4y ago
  Well at least we will all be hurting.
- yrdmb 4y ago
  Almost a trillion in interest payments alone. That can't be too healthy.
electroagenda 4y ago
It is always the same cycle. They FED increase the balance out of thin air by massive quantitative easing. If the money reaches the public, unlike 2008 when it only covered holes, inflation arises. Then they need to create a recession, by increasing interest rates, to solve inflation. And then they need to lower those rates to get out of the recession. And we go back to the first point. Simple.
- seanw444 4y ago
  Sounds like unnecessary bureaucracy on top of an inherit cycle to me.
  - simple-thoughts 4y ago
    Not quite . The banking system naturally creates new money during booms and destroys it during busts. In theory, the federal reserve is supposed to act as a counterweight leading to stability. In practice, it usually accentuates those trends due to political pressure - during bull markets like 2009 thru 2021, people think it’s a new normal and money printing even more is ok. Meanwhile consumer inflation stays low because everyone is putting money into assets that are going up exponentially.
    - naveen99 4y ago
      Think about how your confidence in yourself affects your future earnings expectation and your willingness to take on debt or pay it off. that confidence can change over night due to internal and external factors. So you yourself also create and destroy money with your changing confidence.
rapjr9 4y ago
They are making a prediction of the future based on 16 data points. In a profession notorious for being bad at making predictions, especially about recessions. This is not science. I have to ask is J.P. Morgan in a position to make a profit on a recession?

26 points by pera 4y ago

downrightmike 4y ago

But they need inflation to payoff the trillions they just printed and to service foreign debt.

Red_Leaves_Flyy 4y ago
Rock meet hard place. If history is anything to go by, the proletariat will suffer for these entirely preventable and repetitive acts of overt corruption.
cyanydeez 4y ago
They've been printing since 2008. The trouble was giving money to the plebs to be price gouged.

globalreset 4y ago

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND ; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M318501Q027NBEA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M318501Q027NBEA ; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA ; Recession is just going to make the gov income lower, spending higher. There's no getting out of it now.

Ancalagon 4y ago
Well at least we will all be hurting.
yrdmb 4y ago
Almost a trillion in interest payments alone. That can't be too healthy.

electroagenda 4y ago

It is always the same cycle. They FED increase the balance out of thin air by massive quantitative easing. If the money reaches the public, unlike 2008 when it only covered holes, inflation arises. Then they need to create a recession, by increasing interest rates, to solve inflation. And then they need to lower those rates to get out of the recession. And we go back to the first point. Simple.

seanw444 4y ago
Sounds like unnecessary bureaucracy on top of an inherit cycle to me.
- simple-thoughts 4y ago
  Not quite . The banking system naturally creates new money during booms and destroys it during busts. In theory, the federal reserve is supposed to act as a counterweight leading to stability. In practice, it usually accentuates those trends due to political pressure - during bull markets like 2009 thru 2021, people think it’s a new normal and money printing even more is ok. Meanwhile consumer inflation stays low because everyone is putting money into assets that are going up exponentially.
  - naveen99 4y ago
    Think about how your confidence in yourself affects your future earnings expectation and your willingness to take on debt or pay it off. that confidence can change over night due to internal and external factors. So you yourself also create and destroy money with your changing confidence.

rapjr9 4y ago

They are making a prediction of the future based on 16 data points. In a profession notorious for being bad at making predictions, especially about recessions. This is not science. I have to ask is J.P. Morgan in a position to make a profit on a recession?