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ChatGPT changes everything. Normally with the high rates and the continued inflation we'd head to recession. But ChatGPT is our get-out-of-jail-free card. In th

ChatGPT changes everything. Normally with the high rates and the continued inflation we'd head to recession. But ChatGPT is our get-out-of-jail-free card. In the next few years there will be a burst of economic activity driven by new GPT bots. We have already started seeing it. But this stuff is exponential, like Covid. By the end of this year we'll see GPT applied to countless things. By next year we'll see lots of companies establishing GPT departments. We are not heading to a recession, we are heading to 4% growth. Sustained over a few years.

newaccount2021 4y ago
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rjbwork 4y ago
I definitely admire your optimism, I gotta say. It is very cool and is certainly able to produce some mind blowing artifacts, but it feels like it's going to absolutely obliterate some jobs and not really create too much new stuff. It will increase productivity in a handful of fields though. My predictions: Obliterate: Copywriters Increase Productivity: Programmers, Lawyers Create: ???
- credit_guy 4y ago
  Your predictions are in line with my predictions. When you say "increase productivity", what do you think "productivity" means? It means dollars. Increased productivity is increased GDP. Also, when you say "programmers". That's not just a tiny corner of the economy. It's quite a huge one. And I can see cases where the increase in productivity can be of a factor of 10 or more. I don't know about you, but I've been involved in many (too many) migration projects in my life. That's something a good GPT bot should be able to handle. How many migration projects don't take months or years? With a good GPT assistants one could envision weeks instead of months. Or how about adding unit tests to a large codebase? Or pointing at security vulnerabilities? Or commenting on the code architecture and giving improvement suggestions? Or even maybe carrying out the improvements themselves. All these things are dreams right now, but ChatGPT is just a baby. Literally 3 months old. You mentioned lawyers. But how about CAD designers. I have some friends who design interior furniture. What if they could get a first draft in a few seconds instead of hours? What if the subsequent drafts could also take seconds instead of hours? What about advertising? Here, I just asked ChatGPT to come up with ideas for a hypothetical home brew low carb beer, it gave me 10 answers in a matter of seconds. Here's a few: "Drink up, buttercup - this low-carb brew won't give you a beer belly!" "Because who needs carbs when you have beer?" "Who says you can't have your beer and drink it too? Try our low-carb option today!" As for create? Wow, sky is the limit there. I wrote a fairy tale for my 5 year old daughter a few days ago. Something with unicorns and pixies and an owl and some friendly talking trees. Of course, it was all ChatGPT. I won't bother you with some more quotes, but you can try an exercise like this on yourself, and then maybe you'll reconsider your question marks in the category "Create".
- mint2 4y ago
  Chat gpt is identically helpful to most chat and phone support staff that are underpaid but still paid and have zero power to solve anything as they are required to follow narrow scripts and have zero ability to make exceptions. For example Chat gpt can easily replace all of UPS chat staff that UPS does not allow to actually see data or do anything to help. Will it be useful to customers, not at all. But UPS will no longer have to pay the people that they want to be intentionally useless in order to have a fake facade of customer service.
rybosworld 4y ago
I doubt it. ChatGPT is an amazing innovation. But it won't be long before a company gets blowback because of something their ChatGPT customer service said.
ImHereToVote 4y ago
Absolutely, the only thing we need is a way to get rid of the excess hominid biomass. Productivity is definitely going through the roof though. Can't wait to see the NYSE ticker results.

newaccount2021 4y ago

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rjbwork 4y ago

I definitely admire your optimism, I gotta say. It is very cool and is certainly able to produce some mind blowing artifacts, but it feels like it's going to absolutely obliterate some jobs and not really create too much new stuff. It will increase productivity in a handful of fields though. My predictions: Obliterate: Copywriters Increase Productivity: Programmers, Lawyers Create: ???

credit_guy 4y ago
Your predictions are in line with my predictions. When you say "increase productivity", what do you think "productivity" means? It means dollars. Increased productivity is increased GDP. Also, when you say "programmers". That's not just a tiny corner of the economy. It's quite a huge one. And I can see cases where the increase in productivity can be of a factor of 10 or more. I don't know about you, but I've been involved in many (too many) migration projects in my life. That's something a good GPT bot should be able to handle. How many migration projects don't take months or years? With a good GPT assistants one could envision weeks instead of months. Or how about adding unit tests to a large codebase? Or pointing at security vulnerabilities? Or commenting on the code architecture and giving improvement suggestions? Or even maybe carrying out the improvements themselves. All these things are dreams right now, but ChatGPT is just a baby. Literally 3 months old. You mentioned lawyers. But how about CAD designers. I have some friends who design interior furniture. What if they could get a first draft in a few seconds instead of hours? What if the subsequent drafts could also take seconds instead of hours? What about advertising? Here, I just asked ChatGPT to come up with ideas for a hypothetical home brew low carb beer, it gave me 10 answers in a matter of seconds. Here's a few: "Drink up, buttercup - this low-carb brew won't give you a beer belly!" "Because who needs carbs when you have beer?" "Who says you can't have your beer and drink it too? Try our low-carb option today!" As for create? Wow, sky is the limit there. I wrote a fairy tale for my 5 year old daughter a few days ago. Something with unicorns and pixies and an owl and some friendly talking trees. Of course, it was all ChatGPT. I won't bother you with some more quotes, but you can try an exercise like this on yourself, and then maybe you'll reconsider your question marks in the category "Create".
mint2 4y ago
Chat gpt is identically helpful to most chat and phone support staff that are underpaid but still paid and have zero power to solve anything as they are required to follow narrow scripts and have zero ability to make exceptions. For example Chat gpt can easily replace all of UPS chat staff that UPS does not allow to actually see data or do anything to help. Will it be useful to customers, not at all. But UPS will no longer have to pay the people that they want to be intentionally useless in order to have a fake facade of customer service.

rybosworld 4y ago

I doubt it. ChatGPT is an amazing innovation. But it won't be long before a company gets blowback because of something their ChatGPT customer service said.

ImHereToVote 4y ago

Absolutely, the only thing we need is a way to get rid of the excess hominid biomass. Productivity is definitely going through the roof though. Can't wait to see the NYSE ticker results.