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I thought we were already in a recession, does this mean a recession in the property market or overall?
by Overtonwindow 4y ago
I thought we were already in a recession, does this mean a recession in the property market or overall?
- sokoloff 4y agoThe US has had consecutive quarters of GDP decline in 2022, historically a very strong correlate with a declared recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research has not declared that the U.S. economy is in a recession, so officially/definitionally the US is not determined to be in a recession.
- Overtonwindow 4y agoThat raises the question if it's a political action. If Q1 2023 is a third consecutive quarter in GDP decline, that would seem to strongly signal a recession. Is there a formula that is followed to officially/definitionally determine is the US is in the recession? I'm not even sure how to search for the answer to this next question but I presume somewhere there has been a process used by the government in the past, so we can at least tell if current government is charting their own process.
- reducesuffering 4y agoThe negative GDP growth quarters were Q1 and Q2 2022. We already had a reversal and positive GDP growth for Q3 and Q4 2022. That would seem to portray that everyone who wanted to call a recession after Q2 2022 were premature. https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product White House description of how NBER determine's recessions https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/how-do-economists-determine-whether-the-economy-is-in-a-recession/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/...
- coffeebeqn 4y agoBy what definition? GDP growth was around 3% for Q3 and Q4