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I'm not sure the numbers pencil out with our current state of automation implementation for say, small towns; pigging as pointed out elsewhere in the thread doe

I'm not sure the numbers pencil out with our current state of automation implementation for say, small towns; pigging as pointed out elsewhere in the thread does this, but the equipment is pretty expensive, and you have to have sewer lines designed to take the pressure (especially when they run over aquifers) when some old infrastructures were not designed with that kind of pressure in mind along the joints as a regular occurrence. Current state of the art from what I can see is automation of this sort of work is more of "let's create a tool that does X task or at best tasks in a narrow range", and less of creating a Moravec-class android, or Mote In God's Eye-reminiscent Engineer/Watchmaker Motie-style creatures-but-as-bots. Developing world humans in their near-innumerable billions will always be economically (though arguably not organizationally nor for innovation-wise) cheaper than narrow automation for much "blue collar" work like this for as long as we leave Moravec's Paradox on the table, and not an evolving/improving science and engineering solution in the market. Once I get into equipment to automate manual work (especially any commercial grade kit), I quickly discover the cost hurdle to clear is quite high. I either need lots of people I want to free up for another part of my business, or use the automation as close to around the clock as possible, or both before the capex and opex fall below the financial benefits. The ongoing maintenance of the new tool is a part that usually is not accurately accounted for in many people's opex calculations. I suspect this is why well-capitalized large companies are leveraging automation benefits sooner and we're seeing increasingly more emergent oligopolies, and Moravec-class automation when it ever arrives might be very profitable to the suppliers and disruptive to these incumbents.

Retric 4y ago
When it specifically comes to sewer automation that’s teething pains. Infrastructure built in X years is going to be built with this kind of automation in mind and everything before that point will eventually be replaced. Moravec's Paradox was coined in the 1980’s, today’s systems can do vision from cameras fairly well and are only improving over time. Which is really the point I was going for. Even without AGI, it looks like we are going to start building special purpose hardware with very human like capabilities. On top of this physics has limits on how much physical devices can be improved. If the hypothetical iPhone 732 is eventually the last iPhone ever, then the R&D costs about automating construction fall to zero. Thus robots that build robots which maintain robots etc. A fully lights out factory across potentially geologic timescales. But, that same automation could be applied to everything from recycling, construction, and farming to healthcare.
- yourapostasy 4y ago
  > ...today’s systems can do vision from cameras fairly well and are only improving over time. When we replace Roombas with Moravec-class androids that perform common domestic chores, then I think we'll really be tackling the paradox. Right now I am guessing we're at the approximate equivalent of perhaps say, just before the early Cambrian Period, when vision systems started to show up in the fossil record. So I'm hoping for an exponential development explosion that delivers androids that do laundry (sort, wash, fold, put up, identify for recycling), clean and prep food ingredients, dust/vacuum/mop/cleaning in general, return items to their places, make beds, take out and return rubbish and recycling bags and bins, etc. Even with a developed world income well above the 90th percentile, I cannot cost justify spending ~$0.5-1.0K USD for small slices of each of these capabilities with specialized equipment to automate them, which seems to be about the threshhold they're introduced at.
  - Retric 4y ago
    That’s fair. It took ~100 years for wireless video phones to go from science fiction to something sitting in most peoples pockets. Hell, Paramotor’s are about the most disappointing way we could get flying jet packs. So, I don’t expect this transition to happen in my lifetime but the future is a long time.

Retric 4y ago

When it specifically comes to sewer automation that’s teething pains. Infrastructure built in X years is going to be built with this kind of automation in mind and everything before that point will eventually be replaced. Moravec's Paradox was coined in the 1980’s, today’s systems can do vision from cameras fairly well and are only improving over time. Which is really the point I was going for. Even without AGI, it looks like we are going to start building special purpose hardware with very human like capabilities. On top of this physics has limits on how much physical devices can be improved. If the hypothetical iPhone 732 is eventually the last iPhone ever, then the R&D costs about automating construction fall to zero. Thus robots that build robots which maintain robots etc. A fully lights out factory across potentially geologic timescales. But, that same automation could be applied to everything from recycling, construction, and farming to healthcare.

yourapostasy 4y ago
> ...today’s systems can do vision from cameras fairly well and are only improving over time. When we replace Roombas with Moravec-class androids that perform common domestic chores, then I think we'll really be tackling the paradox. Right now I am guessing we're at the approximate equivalent of perhaps say, just before the early Cambrian Period, when vision systems started to show up in the fossil record. So I'm hoping for an exponential development explosion that delivers androids that do laundry (sort, wash, fold, put up, identify for recycling), clean and prep food ingredients, dust/vacuum/mop/cleaning in general, return items to their places, make beds, take out and return rubbish and recycling bags and bins, etc. Even with a developed world income well above the 90th percentile, I cannot cost justify spending ~$0.5-1.0K USD for small slices of each of these capabilities with specialized equipment to automate them, which seems to be about the threshhold they're introduced at.
- Retric 4y ago
  That’s fair. It took ~100 years for wireless video phones to go from science fiction to something sitting in most peoples pockets. Hell, Paramotor’s are about the most disappointing way we could get flying jet packs. So, I don’t expect this transition to happen in my lifetime but the future is a long time.