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I’ve been asking this for a few years now - how is Waymo ever going to be profitable, let alone worth billions? It seems like their opportunities to license the

I’ve been asking this for a few years now - how is Waymo ever going to be profitable, let alone worth billions? It seems like their opportunities to license the tech to actual car companies are pretty limited, as most of them seem to have competing efforts (and it’s not like any of them are so wildly profitable that Waymo could somehow capture much of their value). As an actual taxi service, it’s both hugely capital and labor intensive (even if you don’t need drivers you need all kinds of maintenance workers and cleaners), low margin, and you’re competing with Uber, Lyft, regular taxis, the bus system, etc. If they’re using custom, low-volume cars they need to have super high utilization rates to be profitable, which means you can’t have lots of idle cars to accommodate surges and things. Meanwhile they’re burning through billions of dollars and are like 15 years in with no profits in sight.

gizmondo 4y ago
> It seems like their opportunities to license the tech to actual car companies are pretty limited, as most of them seem to have competing efforts (and it’s not like any of them are so wildly profitable that Waymo could somehow capture much of their value). I think you contradict yourself a bit -- they are not that profitable, but will be able to sink many-many billions into their own efforts playing catch up if Waymo solves the problem first? Doubtful. The clever ones will license and the stubborn ones will go under. > you’re competing with Uber, Lyft, regular taxis Eliminating the largest expense of these services (drivers) seems like a pretty big advantage, might be even insurmountable. Maintenance/cleaners are not big line items btw. > If they’re using custom, low-volume cars What do you mean by custom cars? The difference with standard cars apart from sensors is pretty small. Don't get me wrong, I'm also skeptical about Waymo. The problem might very well be not solvable satisfactory with current technologies. But if they can do it, they will be worth >100B easily (Uber is not far from that mark!).

gizmondo 4y ago

> It seems like their opportunities to license the tech to actual car companies are pretty limited, as most of them seem to have competing efforts (and it’s not like any of them are so wildly profitable that Waymo could somehow capture much of their value). I think you contradict yourself a bit -- they are not that profitable, but will be able to sink many-many billions into their own efforts playing catch up if Waymo solves the problem first? Doubtful. The clever ones will license and the stubborn ones will go under. > you’re competing with Uber, Lyft, regular taxis Eliminating the largest expense of these services (drivers) seems like a pretty big advantage, might be even insurmountable. Maintenance/cleaners are not big line items btw. > If they’re using custom, low-volume cars What do you mean by custom cars? The difference with standard cars apart from sensors is pretty small. Don't get me wrong, I'm also skeptical about Waymo. The problem might very well be not solvable satisfactory with current technologies. But if they can do it, they will be worth >100B easily (Uber is not far from that mark!).