5 ms·

Makes sense. The perfect is the enemy of the good. Plug-in hybrid cars with a decent electric range (let's say 80 km) can achieve 99% emissions reduction compa

Makes sense. The perfect is the enemy of the good. Plug-in hybrid cars with a decent electric range (let's say 80 km) can achieve 99% emissions reduction compared to current cars. The vast majority of trips people make are short.

mouse_ 4y ago
Is that accounting for manufacture emissions as well? I agree with you though, but what if we could sell fully electric vehicles with only ~100km range? I would buy it if I was really saving the cost and weight of a whole engine block. Useless for road trips, but most people don't need to be taking road trips every day.
- wyager 4y ago
  > Useless for road trips, but most people don't need to be taking road trips every day. One of the primary benefits of owning things, as opposed to being a rentoid, is over-allocation to seamlessly handle peak/long-tail demand scenarios. Yes, a lot of people could save money by only riding bikes or taking taxis or whatever, but the extreme inconvenience associated with getting caught in a demand surge makes ownership worth it a lot more than first-order average-oriented thinking would suggest. Having to get a rental car every time you want to drive more than 100km sucks.
- bluGill 4y ago
  An engine block (including transmission) is light compared to batteries. Maybe a small car with a very limited range is lighter, but not for something useful. Electric cars are typically significantly heavier than their ICE counterparts. 100km is not a useful range. Remember that for best battery life you really need to only charge to 80%, and and never let the battery get below 20%. Now cut that entire range in half for cold weather. You are now down to 30km range that you really can use. That is round trip range unless you really have chargers everywhere you might go. The average US commute is 40 miles or 65km. Though given you are using km you probably have a shorter distance, but even still your 100km car is cutting range too close for comfort for most people. (and you probably have better access to transit, why not get rid of that 100km car completely) I don't know how to compare manufacture emissions. I do know that metal shaping has been optimized a lot, while I would assume as new technology modern batteries still have a lot of room for improvement (the older batteries probably not), so I wouldn't trust a comparison if you had data.
  - Pasorrijer 4y ago
    The average US person commutes 40 miles?!? That's like 45 minutes to an hour a day!
    - AlgorithmicTime 4y ago
      [dead]
    - ddulaney 4y ago
      I'm not sure where the 40 miles number comes from, but the Census Bureau put the one-way commute time at 28 minutes on average as of 2019, with 10% above 1 hour: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/one-way-travel-time-to-work-rises.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/one-way-...
    - wil421 4y ago
      It’s pretty harsh but my commute is 2 stair cases. As a virtual worker I come in to the office 2-5 times a month max. The company I work for’s office is 13 miles away, 35 mins max. The in town office is 19 miles. You could grab a train about 12 miles away and add another 30 minutes to your commute but most people would drive 7 more miles and get there quicker. Living in town is expensive, schools are terrible, and the homes/properties are small.
    - RHSeeger 4y ago
      It varies pretty extensively. I've had commutes in the ranges of - 0 minutes (working from home) - 30-60 minutes each way - 1.5-2.5 hours each way (I only went into the office 2-3 days per week at this one)
  - coredog64 4y ago
    GP was recommending hybrid rather than full EV. For trips that fall into the plug-in range, great. If not, you’re using a small, efficient ICE to make use of the battery without destroying it via over-cycling.
  - Scarblac 4y ago
    I can't imagine that we can go to zero emissions globally, and still have the same commute distances.
- newsclues 4y ago
  > we could sell fully electric vehicles with only ~100km range E-Bikes exist. But it isn't quite that simple, infrastructure and culture are harder to change than products.
speedgoose 4y ago
Going electric makes more sense IMHO. You don't have to deal with the oil supply chain that has issues, from geopolitics, wars, environmental disasters, gas stations. Instead you just slowly upgrade the electrical grid and add more renewable energy production. If I had to bet, refuelling a car will be a challenge once it will not be economical to have many gas stations everywhere. Fossil car will still exist like we still have horse carriages. I do enjoy the sound of an old internal combustion engine, in some contexts. Not to mention that hybrid cars are bad electric cars that are more expensive and heavier. Once you have an electric power-train and a battery, it's not much more expensive to have more cells and get rid of the old heavy fossil tech.
- dzhiurgis 4y ago
  All your points are pointless without specifying a date. Everyone agrees pure BEV are better, question is how actual transition going to look.
- pradn 4y ago
  Did you know they actual pump artificial engine noise into the cabin of some cars? I bet they can make it feel and sound pretty good as they iterate on it. https://www.thedrive.com/news/31105/listen-to-the-fake-engine-noise-the-2021-ford-mustang-mach-e-pumps-into-the-cabin https://www.thedrive.com/news/31105/listen-to-the-fake-engin...
- kybernetyk 4y ago
  >You don't have to deal with the oil supply chain that has issues, from geopolitics, wars, environmental disasters, gas stations. right. but then again most of those issues apply to lithium and other stuff needed to manufacture batteries.
  - kwhitefoot 4y ago
    Once everyone has an EV the supply of lithium, etc., can largely come from scrapped vehicles. It doesn't get used up, it's still there at the end of the battery's lifetime, and it is easier to recycle than to mine new.
babypuncher 4y ago
I'm curious how viable the current gas supply chain would be in a world where gas usage is down 99% thanks to the ubiquity of plug-in hybrids. I don't see gas stations surviving when nobody realistically needs to fill up more than once a year. At that point, the logistics of building and relying on charging networks makes a lot more sense.
- bombcar 4y ago
  There would be some drop-off, but gas stations already often lose money on fuel sales and only make it up on the convenience store side. The local kwik trips have more cars parked at the parking than at the pumps.
  - yencabulator 4y ago
    Why would an EV stop at a gas station? If you need a road snack, you can stop at the local grocery store, for a better selection and better prices.
- hexo 4y ago
  Same viable as it was when we were at 1% of current consumption (i.e. viable).
zackmorris 4y ago
I tend to agree, although when I was looking at used hybrids a year and a half ago when I bought my 2013 Nissan Leaf, the hybrids were about twice as expensive as EVs. I don't see how that can ever change as long as we cling to the ridiculous complexity of reciprocating internal combustion engines. So I'd like to see a new class of EVs with an onboard auxiliary generator. They should use something like a Wankel rotary engine, Tesla turbine, 1 or 2 piston linear generator, Stirling (optionally acoustic) heat engine, fuel cell, etc. They should have more flex fuel options from compressed natural gas (CNG) to alcohol, biodiesel, even wood pellets and ones made from hemp and algae. All EVs should be able to charge while driving, to create a competitive market for generators, otherwise they'd receive a failing grade from reviewers. All EVs should come with built-in solar panels capable of adding 7-44+ miles per day (see Aptera and Lightyear 1). Maybe grade A: 40+, B: 30+, C: 20+ and D: 10+. All EVs should come with 1 or more base platforms where only the body style changes. All EVs should go through independent review where they're graded on their modularity, to prevent vendor lock-in and unnecessary complexity, to encourage decommodification. Otherwise we'll find ourselves in the same situation we are in now next decade, where EVs break down before 100,000 km and require specialized equipment and training to repair. I'd also like to see ultracapacitors for ~10 second boosts to at least 100 km/hr, to be used like the hyperdrive in Extreme E, taking most of the load off the batteries to extend their life. Buyers should also be able to choose from a limited mix of energy storage options including sodium-ion. And please stop it with the tiny motors. Each wheel deserves at least 100 kW, and we should supplement windings with aluminum or carbon fiber, staying above 90% efficiency at max load, to reduce the amount of copper and/or rare earth metals in each motor. With 1000 W of solar panels costing around $500 wholesale, none of the above add appreciable cost to the vehicle. Most resistance will be political or caused by manufacturers dragging their feet to prevent cannibalizing their current model sales.
- schmookeeg 4y ago
  And yet, BMW discontinued my beloved i3 with onboard 660cc-powered generator.

mouse_ 4y ago

Is that accounting for manufacture emissions as well? I agree with you though, but what if we could sell fully electric vehicles with only ~100km range? I would buy it if I was really saving the cost and weight of a whole engine block. Useless for road trips, but most people don't need to be taking road trips every day.

wyager 4y ago
> Useless for road trips, but most people don't need to be taking road trips every day. One of the primary benefits of owning things, as opposed to being a rentoid, is over-allocation to seamlessly handle peak/long-tail demand scenarios. Yes, a lot of people could save money by only riding bikes or taking taxis or whatever, but the extreme inconvenience associated with getting caught in a demand surge makes ownership worth it a lot more than first-order average-oriented thinking would suggest. Having to get a rental car every time you want to drive more than 100km sucks.
bluGill 4y ago
An engine block (including transmission) is light compared to batteries. Maybe a small car with a very limited range is lighter, but not for something useful. Electric cars are typically significantly heavier than their ICE counterparts. 100km is not a useful range. Remember that for best battery life you really need to only charge to 80%, and and never let the battery get below 20%. Now cut that entire range in half for cold weather. You are now down to 30km range that you really can use. That is round trip range unless you really have chargers everywhere you might go. The average US commute is 40 miles or 65km. Though given you are using km you probably have a shorter distance, but even still your 100km car is cutting range too close for comfort for most people. (and you probably have better access to transit, why not get rid of that 100km car completely) I don't know how to compare manufacture emissions. I do know that metal shaping has been optimized a lot, while I would assume as new technology modern batteries still have a lot of room for improvement (the older batteries probably not), so I wouldn't trust a comparison if you had data.
- Pasorrijer 4y ago
  The average US person commutes 40 miles?!? That's like 45 minutes to an hour a day!
  - AlgorithmicTime 4y ago
    [dead]
  - ddulaney 4y ago
    I'm not sure where the 40 miles number comes from, but the Census Bureau put the one-way commute time at 28 minutes on average as of 2019, with 10% above 1 hour: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/one-way-travel-time-to-work-rises.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/one-way-...
  - wil421 4y ago
    It’s pretty harsh but my commute is 2 stair cases. As a virtual worker I come in to the office 2-5 times a month max. The company I work for’s office is 13 miles away, 35 mins max. The in town office is 19 miles. You could grab a train about 12 miles away and add another 30 minutes to your commute but most people would drive 7 more miles and get there quicker. Living in town is expensive, schools are terrible, and the homes/properties are small.
  - RHSeeger 4y ago
    It varies pretty extensively. I've had commutes in the ranges of - 0 minutes (working from home) - 30-60 minutes each way - 1.5-2.5 hours each way (I only went into the office 2-3 days per week at this one)
- coredog64 4y ago
  GP was recommending hybrid rather than full EV. For trips that fall into the plug-in range, great. If not, you’re using a small, efficient ICE to make use of the battery without destroying it via over-cycling.
- Scarblac 4y ago
  I can't imagine that we can go to zero emissions globally, and still have the same commute distances.
newsclues 4y ago
> we could sell fully electric vehicles with only ~100km range E-Bikes exist. But it isn't quite that simple, infrastructure and culture are harder to change than products.

speedgoose 4y ago

Going electric makes more sense IMHO. You don't have to deal with the oil supply chain that has issues, from geopolitics, wars, environmental disasters, gas stations. Instead you just slowly upgrade the electrical grid and add more renewable energy production. If I had to bet, refuelling a car will be a challenge once it will not be economical to have many gas stations everywhere. Fossil car will still exist like we still have horse carriages. I do enjoy the sound of an old internal combustion engine, in some contexts. Not to mention that hybrid cars are bad electric cars that are more expensive and heavier. Once you have an electric power-train and a battery, it's not much more expensive to have more cells and get rid of the old heavy fossil tech.

dzhiurgis 4y ago
All your points are pointless without specifying a date. Everyone agrees pure BEV are better, question is how actual transition going to look.
pradn 4y ago
Did you know they actual pump artificial engine noise into the cabin of some cars? I bet they can make it feel and sound pretty good as they iterate on it. https://www.thedrive.com/news/31105/listen-to-the-fake-engine-noise-the-2021-ford-mustang-mach-e-pumps-into-the-cabin https://www.thedrive.com/news/31105/listen-to-the-fake-engin...
kybernetyk 4y ago
>You don't have to deal with the oil supply chain that has issues, from geopolitics, wars, environmental disasters, gas stations. right. but then again most of those issues apply to lithium and other stuff needed to manufacture batteries.
- kwhitefoot 4y ago
  Once everyone has an EV the supply of lithium, etc., can largely come from scrapped vehicles. It doesn't get used up, it's still there at the end of the battery's lifetime, and it is easier to recycle than to mine new.

babypuncher 4y ago

I'm curious how viable the current gas supply chain would be in a world where gas usage is down 99% thanks to the ubiquity of plug-in hybrids. I don't see gas stations surviving when nobody realistically needs to fill up more than once a year. At that point, the logistics of building and relying on charging networks makes a lot more sense.

bombcar 4y ago
There would be some drop-off, but gas stations already often lose money on fuel sales and only make it up on the convenience store side. The local kwik trips have more cars parked at the parking than at the pumps.
- yencabulator 4y ago
  Why would an EV stop at a gas station? If you need a road snack, you can stop at the local grocery store, for a better selection and better prices.
hexo 4y ago
Same viable as it was when we were at 1% of current consumption (i.e. viable).

zackmorris 4y ago

I tend to agree, although when I was looking at used hybrids a year and a half ago when I bought my 2013 Nissan Leaf, the hybrids were about twice as expensive as EVs. I don't see how that can ever change as long as we cling to the ridiculous complexity of reciprocating internal combustion engines. So I'd like to see a new class of EVs with an onboard auxiliary generator. They should use something like a Wankel rotary engine, Tesla turbine, 1 or 2 piston linear generator, Stirling (optionally acoustic) heat engine, fuel cell, etc. They should have more flex fuel options from compressed natural gas (CNG) to alcohol, biodiesel, even wood pellets and ones made from hemp and algae. All EVs should be able to charge while driving, to create a competitive market for generators, otherwise they'd receive a failing grade from reviewers. All EVs should come with built-in solar panels capable of adding 7-44+ miles per day (see Aptera and Lightyear 1). Maybe grade A: 40+, B: 30+, C: 20+ and D: 10+. All EVs should come with 1 or more base platforms where only the body style changes. All EVs should go through independent review where they're graded on their modularity, to prevent vendor lock-in and unnecessary complexity, to encourage decommodification. Otherwise we'll find ourselves in the same situation we are in now next decade, where EVs break down before 100,000 km and require specialized equipment and training to repair. I'd also like to see ultracapacitors for ~10 second boosts to at least 100 km/hr, to be used like the hyperdrive in Extreme E, taking most of the load off the batteries to extend their life. Buyers should also be able to choose from a limited mix of energy storage options including sodium-ion. And please stop it with the tiny motors. Each wheel deserves at least 100 kW, and we should supplement windings with aluminum or carbon fiber, staying above 90% efficiency at max load, to reduce the amount of copper and/or rare earth metals in each motor. With 1000 W of solar panels costing around $500 wholesale, none of the above add appreciable cost to the vehicle. Most resistance will be political or caused by manufacturers dragging their feet to prevent cannibalizing their current model sales.

schmookeeg 4y ago
And yet, BMW discontinued my beloved i3 with onboard 660cc-powered generator.