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These measures are all so far in the future they are irrelevant. It's like giving people a loan their kids will pay.

Bostonian 4y ago
Car companies decide how to much to invest now in new lines of gas-powered cars based on views of future government policies, so the measures are not "irrelevant". At a micro level, someone considering buying a gas station or building a new one will consider the lifetime revenues of the business.
- dsfyu404ed 4y ago
  Car companies have plenty of know-how to predict the future of their field of technology on a 10-15yr timeline. They're perfectly capable of calling obvious bluffs. While everyone was busy back patting and circle jerking over the 2035 mandates they were investing in new gas engine architectures for commercial vehicles (so like minivans on up to medium duty trucks) because they looked at the state of diesel tech and emissions rules, looked at the state of gas engine tech and emissions rules and looked at the state of battery tech and decided that the box van of the future was gonna have a gas engine option. At the end of the day you can't legislate a technology jump into existence.
mabbo 4y ago
2035 is 12 years away. That's not immediately, but a significant number of politicians will still be around in 12 years.
- Ekaros 4y ago
  Also 12 years is not a long time for industry that looks further than single quarter. Which the German auto-industry certainly can do at times. Rather soon if not already they will need to look at what to do for that year in models, design and so on.
- netsharc 4y ago
  Holy smokes that's close. I can still remember what I was doing 12 years ago (2011)...
  - mabbo 4y ago
    I mean, I could accept that 2035 was 12 years from now. I cannot accept that 2011 was 12 years ago.
    - yakubin 4y ago
      You're temporally ambivalent.
Johnny555 4y ago
12 years is a long time if you're talking about computer or phone tech (the iPhone is "only" 16 years old, android phones are younger than that) It's a very short time (maybe too short) if you're talking about transitioning the entire car industry off of fossil fuels.
- LatteLazy 4y ago
  I am old enough to remember the aim being the year 2000 for us to be carbon neutral. Then it was 2010. Then 2015. Then 2020. Now its 2035. In 2040, we will be totally absolutely complete committed to making cuts starting in 2050. This is why no one does the obvious: If you ACTUALLY want a 100% cut in 2035, why not have an 8.5% cut per year for each of those 12 years? Or even just a 1% cut? Or even just a 1 car less cut? Because the plan is to do nothing for 12 years then give ourselves another extension.
  - Johnny555 4y ago
    I don’t remember there being any promise or commitment to go carbon neutral by 2000, the Kyoto Protocol for carbon emissions reductions wasn’t signed until 1997 and didn’t even go into full effect until 2005, with the first commitment level starting in 2008, but that level wasn’t full carbon neutrality.
    - LatteLazy 4y ago
      The stated purpose of Kyoto was to cut emissions. We have increased emissions since signing it. The stated purpose of Paris was to avoid 1.5 degrees of warming. That level of warming is now inevitable. But we will instead totally really definitely avoid 2 degrees. Which we're already likely to miss. Now the EU tells me about how we are going to go ICE car free by 2035. And do that by doing nothing now...

Car companies decide how to much to invest now in new lines of gas-powered cars based on views of future government policies, so the measures are not "irrelevant". At a micro level, someone considering buying a gas station or building a new one will consider the lifetime revenues of the business.

dsfyu404ed 4y ago
Car companies have plenty of know-how to predict the future of their field of technology on a 10-15yr timeline. They're perfectly capable of calling obvious bluffs. While everyone was busy back patting and circle jerking over the 2035 mandates they were investing in new gas engine architectures for commercial vehicles (so like minivans on up to medium duty trucks) because they looked at the state of diesel tech and emissions rules, looked at the state of gas engine tech and emissions rules and looked at the state of battery tech and decided that the box van of the future was gonna have a gas engine option. At the end of the day you can't legislate a technology jump into existence.

mabbo 4y ago

2035 is 12 years away. That's not immediately, but a significant number of politicians will still be around in 12 years.

Ekaros 4y ago
Also 12 years is not a long time for industry that looks further than single quarter. Which the German auto-industry certainly can do at times. Rather soon if not already they will need to look at what to do for that year in models, design and so on.
netsharc 4y ago
Holy smokes that's close. I can still remember what I was doing 12 years ago (2011)...
- mabbo 4y ago
  I mean, I could accept that 2035 was 12 years from now. I cannot accept that 2011 was 12 years ago.
  - yakubin 4y ago
    You're temporally ambivalent.

Johnny555 4y ago

12 years is a long time if you're talking about computer or phone tech (the iPhone is "only" 16 years old, android phones are younger than that) It's a very short time (maybe too short) if you're talking about transitioning the entire car industry off of fossil fuels.

LatteLazy 4y ago
I am old enough to remember the aim being the year 2000 for us to be carbon neutral. Then it was 2010. Then 2015. Then 2020. Now its 2035. In 2040, we will be totally absolutely complete committed to making cuts starting in 2050. This is why no one does the obvious: If you ACTUALLY want a 100% cut in 2035, why not have an 8.5% cut per year for each of those 12 years? Or even just a 1% cut? Or even just a 1 car less cut? Because the plan is to do nothing for 12 years then give ourselves another extension.
- Johnny555 4y ago
  I don’t remember there being any promise or commitment to go carbon neutral by 2000, the Kyoto Protocol for carbon emissions reductions wasn’t signed until 1997 and didn’t even go into full effect until 2005, with the first commitment level starting in 2008, but that level wasn’t full carbon neutrality.
  - LatteLazy 4y ago
    The stated purpose of Kyoto was to cut emissions. We have increased emissions since signing it. The stated purpose of Paris was to avoid 1.5 degrees of warming. That level of warming is now inevitable. But we will instead totally really definitely avoid 2 degrees. Which we're already likely to miss. Now the EU tells me about how we are going to go ICE car free by 2035. And do that by doing nothing now...