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Remember, all it takes is a blockade, not even an invasion, of Taiwan and new computing projects are on indefinite hold. And we will start de-computerizing indu

Remember, all it takes is a blockade, not even an invasion, of Taiwan and new computing projects are on indefinite hold. And we will start de-computerizing industries out of necessity. It could be that quick.

zamnos 4y ago
That's a fascinating perspective. Okay, so Taiwan is blockaded and we can't get any more computer chips for the near future. Then somehow we decomputerize industry? Why wouldn't we just start using older computers, of which there is a glut of them? (Just check ebay.) Also many industries, after seeing efficiency gains, are unable to decomputerize. What happens to them?
- gjsman-1000 4y ago
  eBay creates the appearance of a glut. But if you actually count, it wouldn’t sustain more than a few days of sales, or even more than a few days of hardware failures. Especially when they get scalped.
roarcher 4y ago
Intel still makes most of its stuff in the US. TSMC is building two new fabs in Arizona, which AMD, Nvidia, and Apple all plan to contract with. They're also building one in Japan. If China is going to squeeze the global semiconductor industry, they'd better do it soon.
- gjsman-1000 4y ago
  Yes, I know. But if you look inside a computer, you’ll quickly realize there’s a lot more than an Intel CPU and Chipset making the computer work. Everything from networking NICs to audio. Not much of a computer when you don’t have the Taiwanese chips for Ethernet. Or when you find out your BIOS was stored in a ROM chip that’s unobtainable.
  - roarcher 4y ago
    I doubt the new fabs will produce things only from the companies I listed. You're right that a blockade would cause shortages, but I'm skeptical that it would be as bad as you're suggesting. The only industry that I'm aware of that was "de-computerized" during the recent shortage was the auto industry, and even that was just manufacturers temporarily leaving certain features out of new vehicles.
petre 4y ago
No, the moment that happens, the computing projects are going into defense contracts. Like image recognition homing missiles, electronic warfare, intel gathering, logistics. We've all seen how the Russians were doing without it. Talking on the mobile phone got them killed.

zamnos 4y ago

That's a fascinating perspective. Okay, so Taiwan is blockaded and we can't get any more computer chips for the near future. Then somehow we decomputerize industry? Why wouldn't we just start using older computers, of which there is a glut of them? (Just check ebay.) Also many industries, after seeing efficiency gains, are unable to decomputerize. What happens to them?

gjsman-1000 4y ago
eBay creates the appearance of a glut. But if you actually count, it wouldn’t sustain more than a few days of sales, or even more than a few days of hardware failures. Especially when they get scalped.

roarcher 4y ago

Intel still makes most of its stuff in the US. TSMC is building two new fabs in Arizona, which AMD, Nvidia, and Apple all plan to contract with. They're also building one in Japan. If China is going to squeeze the global semiconductor industry, they'd better do it soon.

gjsman-1000 4y ago
Yes, I know. But if you look inside a computer, you’ll quickly realize there’s a lot more than an Intel CPU and Chipset making the computer work. Everything from networking NICs to audio. Not much of a computer when you don’t have the Taiwanese chips for Ethernet. Or when you find out your BIOS was stored in a ROM chip that’s unobtainable.
- roarcher 4y ago
  I doubt the new fabs will produce things only from the companies I listed. You're right that a blockade would cause shortages, but I'm skeptical that it would be as bad as you're suggesting. The only industry that I'm aware of that was "de-computerized" during the recent shortage was the auto industry, and even that was just manufacturers temporarily leaving certain features out of new vehicles.

petre 4y ago

No, the moment that happens, the computing projects are going into defense contracts. Like image recognition homing missiles, electronic warfare, intel gathering, logistics. We've all seen how the Russians were doing without it. Talking on the mobile phone got them killed.