4 ms·

I think we have fifteen years left, at most, before climate change starts making much of the planet uninhabitable

by cammikebrown 4y ago

melling 4y ago
There’s no science that says that. Talk like this only gives fuel to climate change deniers.
- RajT88 4y ago
  If anything, some parts of the planet will become more habitable. Like Canada. (Not a dig on Canada; Canada's lovely - from May to October)
- __MatrixMan__ 4y ago
  There's also no science ruling it out. The closer you look at ecosystem complexity the clearer it becomes that we understand it well enough to make accurate predictions. Nobody can prove that we're one keystone-species extinction away from calamity, but nobody can prove that we're not, and the rate at which species are going extinct due to our involvement is such that it's not crazy to be expect big changes over small timescales.
- neom 4y ago
  Not strictly true, there is science that states there are many unknowns. The latest U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change clearly and starkly lays out the risk around positive feedback loops[1]. There is also some recent research out of University of Oregon stating similar[2]. 1: https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/ https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/ 2: https://phys.org/news/2023-02-scientists-dangerous-feedback-loops-climate.html https://phys.org/news/2023-02-scientists-dangerous-feedback-...
teaearlgraycold 4y ago
Much of the planet? Really? I can understand writing off Phoenix, AZ or parts of South East Asia and the Middle East.
- jiggyjace 4y ago
  Phoenix being unlivable is such a fearmongered point. Much of Arizona is already out of extreme drought, and is set up to be extremely livable due to solar & nuclear power plus innovations made in air conditioning and pulling water out of the air. Sources: AZ drought monitor: https://www.drought.gov/states/arizona https://www.drought.gov/states/arizona The most powerful nuclear plant is in AZ: https://electricenergyonline.com/article/energy/category/generation/52/590114/palo-verde-nuclear-generating-station-is-america-s-largest-producer-of-emission-free-energy.html https://electricenergyonline.com/article/energy/category/gen... Innovations on pulling water from the hot, dry air: https://worldwaterreserve.com/source-hydropanels/ https://worldwaterreserve.com/source-hydropanels/ Solar adoption in AZ: https://azbigmedia.com/business/arizona-energy-industry/arizona-solar-capacity-ranks-third-in-the-nation/ https://azbigmedia.com/business/arizona-energy-industry/ariz...
  - teaearlgraycold 4y ago
    It's more of a meme: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PYt0SDnrBE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PYt0SDnrBE
- staunton 4y ago
  "much of the planet", whatever "much" means exactly and whether or not the claim is true, should refer to the number of people affected. Essentially, how much do we care about people in poor countries dying of thirst, starving and attempting to migrate while stey still can? A lot of people live in the places you "can understand writing off". What happens to them?
agumonkey 4y ago
It would quite a cosmic irony that humanity reaches eternal life right when their planet is unliveable.
A_D_E_P_T 4y ago
Ah, but only 22 years left until Kurzweil had estimated that the singularity would begin, which prediction is looking increasingly prescient. So. You might just be able to upload yourself and live indefinitely. The statement above could be wrong. You could also be wrong. (Certainly very few people are acting as though they believe that CO2 emissions are going to turn the Earth into an uninhabitable flooded fireball.) But techno-optimism beats pessimism, easy. If nothing else, it makes it easier to live with yourself.
renewiltord 4y ago
We will make a deal, then. 10 years from now, I will give you 100k units of currency from a country. 15 years from now, you will give me 10 million units of that currency. The country must have steady state inflation of the preceding 5 years of under 10%. The country must be one of the ones you believe will become uninhabitable. Easy money for you since you can convert to a safe currency and then pay out in the worthless currency later. If no country meets the requirements, we just fold and there's no deal. But if one does, you've got yourself free money. If you think you'll have trouble with obtaining units, we can run it like a swap in what you believe to be safer currency. I'll need a written contract so I'll send someone to you if you're in San Francisco.
Dalewyn 4y ago
Every 15 years we have someone who says globalwarmingclimatechange will make Earth uninhabitable in 15 years.
fallingfrog 4y ago
I think that climate scientists are making accurate, reliable predictions when it comes to climate change- however, I have not heard any climate scientist saying things this extreme. It's important to not distort the situation in either direction. The earth will likely heat by 3 degrees C or thereabouts but it will take 50 years or more to get there, from what I understand.
staunton 4y ago
The issue is not "what percentage of landmass is uninhabitable" but rather how many will no longer be able to afford food and water, be admitted to refugee camps and if the rich will be willing to share these things with the poor. War is another potential factor.

I think we have fifteen years left, at most, before climate change starts making much of the planet uninhabitable

melling 4y ago

There’s no science that says that. Talk like this only gives fuel to climate change deniers.

RajT88 4y ago
If anything, some parts of the planet will become more habitable. Like Canada. (Not a dig on Canada; Canada's lovely - from May to October)
__MatrixMan__ 4y ago
There's also no science ruling it out. The closer you look at ecosystem complexity the clearer it becomes that we understand it well enough to make accurate predictions. Nobody can prove that we're one keystone-species extinction away from calamity, but nobody can prove that we're not, and the rate at which species are going extinct due to our involvement is such that it's not crazy to be expect big changes over small timescales.
neom 4y ago
Not strictly true, there is science that states there are many unknowns. The latest U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change clearly and starkly lays out the risk around positive feedback loops[1]. There is also some recent research out of University of Oregon stating similar[2]. 1: https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/ https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/ 2: https://phys.org/news/2023-02-scientists-dangerous-feedback-loops-climate.html https://phys.org/news/2023-02-scientists-dangerous-feedback-...

teaearlgraycold 4y ago

Much of the planet? Really? I can understand writing off Phoenix, AZ or parts of South East Asia and the Middle East.

jiggyjace 4y ago
Phoenix being unlivable is such a fearmongered point. Much of Arizona is already out of extreme drought, and is set up to be extremely livable due to solar & nuclear power plus innovations made in air conditioning and pulling water out of the air. Sources: AZ drought monitor: https://www.drought.gov/states/arizona https://www.drought.gov/states/arizona The most powerful nuclear plant is in AZ: https://electricenergyonline.com/article/energy/category/generation/52/590114/palo-verde-nuclear-generating-station-is-america-s-largest-producer-of-emission-free-energy.html https://electricenergyonline.com/article/energy/category/gen... Innovations on pulling water from the hot, dry air: https://worldwaterreserve.com/source-hydropanels/ https://worldwaterreserve.com/source-hydropanels/ Solar adoption in AZ: https://azbigmedia.com/business/arizona-energy-industry/arizona-solar-capacity-ranks-third-in-the-nation/ https://azbigmedia.com/business/arizona-energy-industry/ariz...
- teaearlgraycold 4y ago
  It's more of a meme: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PYt0SDnrBE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PYt0SDnrBE
staunton 4y ago
"much of the planet", whatever "much" means exactly and whether or not the claim is true, should refer to the number of people affected. Essentially, how much do we care about people in poor countries dying of thirst, starving and attempting to migrate while stey still can? A lot of people live in the places you "can understand writing off". What happens to them?

agumonkey 4y ago

It would quite a cosmic irony that humanity reaches eternal life right when their planet is unliveable.

A_D_E_P_T 4y ago

Ah, but only 22 years left until Kurzweil had estimated that the singularity would begin, which prediction is looking increasingly prescient. So. You might just be able to upload yourself and live indefinitely. The statement above could be wrong. You could also be wrong. (Certainly very few people are acting as though they believe that CO2 emissions are going to turn the Earth into an uninhabitable flooded fireball.) But techno-optimism beats pessimism, easy. If nothing else, it makes it easier to live with yourself.

renewiltord 4y ago

We will make a deal, then. 10 years from now, I will give you 100k units of currency from a country. 15 years from now, you will give me 10 million units of that currency. The country must have steady state inflation of the preceding 5 years of under 10%. The country must be one of the ones you believe will become uninhabitable. Easy money for you since you can convert to a safe currency and then pay out in the worthless currency later. If no country meets the requirements, we just fold and there's no deal. But if one does, you've got yourself free money. If you think you'll have trouble with obtaining units, we can run it like a swap in what you believe to be safer currency. I'll need a written contract so I'll send someone to you if you're in San Francisco.

Dalewyn 4y ago

Every 15 years we have someone who says globalwarmingclimatechange will make Earth uninhabitable in 15 years.

fallingfrog 4y ago

I think that climate scientists are making accurate, reliable predictions when it comes to climate change- however, I have not heard any climate scientist saying things this extreme. It's important to not distort the situation in either direction. The earth will likely heat by 3 degrees C or thereabouts but it will take 50 years or more to get there, from what I understand.

staunton 4y ago

The issue is not "what percentage of landmass is uninhabitable" but rather how many will no longer be able to afford food and water, be admitted to refugee camps and if the rich will be willing to share these things with the poor. War is another potential factor.