5 ms·

They are following the Residential Real Estate Developer Playbook, always name your for profit exploitation project after the beautiful organic thing you destro

They are following the Residential Real Estate Developer Playbook, always name your for profit exploitation project after the beautiful organic thing you destroyed to pave the way for it... Examples Whispering pines, Blue Heron Bay, OpenAI

startupsfail 4y ago
Hadn’t OpenAI published all the key research results to repro ChatGPT? And made their model available to literally everyone? And contributed more than anyone else to AI alignment/safety? To me it looks like nearly every other player, including open source projects are there for short term fame and profit, while it’s the OpenAI that is playing the long game of AI alignment.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- Filligree 4y ago
  You're not wrong, but existential threats and possible extinction is in the future; maybe ten-fifteen years away if we're lucky. Meanwhile, we don't get to play with their models right now. Obviously that's what we should be concerned about.
  - Julesman 4y ago
    Among all the accepted threats to humanity's future, AI is one of the least founded at this point. We all grew up with this cautionary fiction. But unless you know something everyone else doesn't, the near term existential threat of AI is relatively low.
    - mitthrowaway2 4y ago
      What strong evidence of existential threat are you expecting to see before it's already too late to avoid catastrophe?
      - ves 4y ago
        Once-in-a-century weather patterns happening multiple times per decade, that sort of thing.
        mitthrowaway2 4y ago
        That would make sense for climate change, but the context of this thread is a discussion about AI. Why would that be evidence of an existential threat from AI?
        pksebben 4y ago
        what I think they mean is; there are bigger tigers, and they're already in the house. no sense wasting time stressing out about the cub at the zoo.
        mitthrowaway2 4y ago
        I do at least carry hope that climate change will have survivors in all but the worst-case scenarios. And I'm not sure which tiger will strike first.
      - jay_kyburz 4y ago
        Existential threat is a bit hyperbolic. Worst case scenario, lots of people might lose their jobs, and some will go hungry as we restructure our economy. War with Russia is literally an existential threat.
        mitthrowaway2 4y ago
        Your worst-case scenario looks very close to my best-case scenario!
      - mcguire 4y ago
        What strong evidence do you have that AGI (1) is possible in the foreseeable future, and (2) will be more a threat than any random human?
    - mach1ne 4y ago
      >Near term relatively low Precisely. Above 1% so in the realm of possible, but definitely not above 50% and probably not above 5% in the next 10-15 years. My guesstimate is around 1-2%. But expand the time horizon to the next 50 years and the cognitive fallacy of underestimating long-term progress kicks in. That’s the timescale that actually produces scary high existential risk with our current trajectory of progress.
    - epolanski 4y ago
      I can see AI being used in safety critical systems like cars, it's already happened and it has already killed people.
    - LordDragonfang 4y ago
      https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a-list-of-lethalities https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a...
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    > You’re not wrong, but existential threats and possible extinction is in the future; maybe ten-fifteen years away if we’re lucky. The threat from humans leveraging narrow control of AI for power over other humans is, by far, the greatest threat from AI over any timeframe.
- sharkjacobs 4y ago
  > As another example, we now believe we were wrong in our original thinking about openness, and have pivoted from thinking we should release everything (though we open source some things, and expect to open source more exciting things in the future!) to thinking that we should figure out how to safely share access to and benefits of the systems. https://openai.com/blog/planning-for-agi-and-beyond https://openai.com/blog/planning-for-agi-and-beyond
  - wpietri 4y ago
    Well gosh, what could be a safer way to share than giving access to people with money? Since we live in a meritocracy, we're basically guaranteed that anybody with money to spend is virtuous, and vice versa.
    - Smoosh 4y ago
      Excuse me, I have to go to the store to get a refill for my sarcasm detector. Your one comment completely emptied the tank.

startupsfail 4y ago

Hadn’t OpenAI published all the key research results to repro ChatGPT? And made their model available to literally everyone? And contributed more than anyone else to AI alignment/safety? To me it looks like nearly every other player, including open source projects are there for short term fame and profit, while it’s the OpenAI that is playing the long game of AI alignment.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
Filligree 4y ago
You're not wrong, but existential threats and possible extinction is in the future; maybe ten-fifteen years away if we're lucky. Meanwhile, we don't get to play with their models right now. Obviously that's what we should be concerned about.
- Julesman 4y ago
  Among all the accepted threats to humanity's future, AI is one of the least founded at this point. We all grew up with this cautionary fiction. But unless you know something everyone else doesn't, the near term existential threat of AI is relatively low.
  - mitthrowaway2 4y ago
    What strong evidence of existential threat are you expecting to see before it's already too late to avoid catastrophe?
    - ves 4y ago
      Once-in-a-century weather patterns happening multiple times per decade, that sort of thing.
      - mitthrowaway2 4y ago
        That would make sense for climate change, but the context of this thread is a discussion about AI. Why would that be evidence of an existential threat from AI?
        pksebben 4y ago
        what I think they mean is; there are bigger tigers, and they're already in the house. no sense wasting time stressing out about the cub at the zoo.
        mitthrowaway2 4y ago
        I do at least carry hope that climate change will have survivors in all but the worst-case scenarios. And I'm not sure which tiger will strike first.
    - jay_kyburz 4y ago
      Existential threat is a bit hyperbolic. Worst case scenario, lots of people might lose their jobs, and some will go hungry as we restructure our economy. War with Russia is literally an existential threat.
      - mitthrowaway2 4y ago
        Your worst-case scenario looks very close to my best-case scenario!
    - mcguire 4y ago
      What strong evidence do you have that AGI (1) is possible in the foreseeable future, and (2) will be more a threat than any random human?
  - mach1ne 4y ago
    >Near term relatively low Precisely. Above 1% so in the realm of possible, but definitely not above 50% and probably not above 5% in the next 10-15 years. My guesstimate is around 1-2%. But expand the time horizon to the next 50 years and the cognitive fallacy of underestimating long-term progress kicks in. That’s the timescale that actually produces scary high existential risk with our current trajectory of progress.
  - epolanski 4y ago
    I can see AI being used in safety critical systems like cars, it's already happened and it has already killed people.
  - LordDragonfang 4y ago
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a-list-of-lethalities https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a...
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > You’re not wrong, but existential threats and possible extinction is in the future; maybe ten-fifteen years away if we’re lucky. The threat from humans leveraging narrow control of AI for power over other humans is, by far, the greatest threat from AI over any timeframe.
sharkjacobs 4y ago
> As another example, we now believe we were wrong in our original thinking about openness, and have pivoted from thinking we should release everything (though we open source some things, and expect to open source more exciting things in the future!) to thinking that we should figure out how to safely share access to and benefits of the systems. https://openai.com/blog/planning-for-agi-and-beyond https://openai.com/blog/planning-for-agi-and-beyond
- wpietri 4y ago
  Well gosh, what could be a safer way to share than giving access to people with money? Since we live in a meritocracy, we're basically guaranteed that anybody with money to spend is virtuous, and vice versa.
  - Smoosh 4y ago
    Excuse me, I have to go to the store to get a refill for my sarcasm detector. Your one comment completely emptied the tank.