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> If they could produce sound analysis they'd beating the market with it, not posting it online to sell ads. This isn't correct - you can produce very sound an
by vgatherps 4y ago
> If they could produce sound analysis they'd beating the market with it, not posting it online to sell ads.
This isn't correct - you can produce very sound analysis of past events, but to make money trading you need predictive power into future (as well as a lot of other things).
- TeMPOraL 4y agoArguably, the soundness of the analysis is in its explanatory power. If you can't use your analysis to successfully predict the future, or even past events that weren't known to you when doing the analysis, then your analysis is a) useless, and b) impossible to tell apart from random bullshit of equal predictive power. However, per GP, such useless analysis can still make the reader feel smarter, meaning you can monetize it - through paid or ad-funded publishing. In this sense, journalists are selling "analysis porn".
- namaria 4y agoI couldn't have put it better myself. Multiple explanations or analyses can be produced. Only a subset will be useful for making predictions. Explanations with no predictive power are useless. But can be sold for a bit of attention online. They can be correct in that there is no logical error involved, but absence of mistakes is not very useful in itself. I can sell you a computer that will never get hacked. It has no power unit...