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Everything depends on the final result of the Russian invasion on Ukraine. If Russia will manage to enforce peace agreement, something like Minsk deals, that, e
by piokoch 4y ago
Everything depends on the final result of the Russian invasion on Ukraine. If Russia will manage to enforce peace agreement, something like Minsk deals, that, effectively, would let them keep part of Ukraine and go away with sanctions then whole post 2WW collective security system will be smashed.
Everybody will see that you can invade a weaker country, for whatever made up reason, and nothing happens. Everybody will try to posses nuclear weapon, as this is the only effective way of scaring potential enemies.
A lot of local conflicts will start. Turkey against Greece. Azerbaijan against Armenia.
Hungary might try to bring back their old territories, lost because of Treaty of Trianon (that's why I am so surprised Northern Hungary, sorry, I meant Slovakia, is not so eager to help Ukraine and a lot of people are pro-Russian).
Belarus will become part of Russia soon, Kazakhstan will follow, hybrid war against Baltic States will began ("defending" Russian minority, etc.).
If Russia will be forced to leave Ukraine and pay contribution we will be back in the World we peacefully lived since 1989, if not, well, interesting times ahead.
USA understands this that's why it helps Ukraine, US domination, control over trade, dollar as an only mean to pay for oil, hence, reserve currency for all countries, will be questioned immediately. Asia is looking on Ukraine right now since maybe, maybe it will be time to change patron.
Western Europe understands this too, but they dream about "multi-polar world" with Western Europe becoming one of the key players. The crux is you cannot be a key player if you have barely 800 tanks altogether, with an unknown number of those who are not even able to move out of garage (Spain).
Multipolar world will not be a nice place to be, it will be a brutal place with competing forces among which Western Europe will need to fight for its position. And this will not be easy.
Until new superpower will arise, if this will be China with its mixture of communism and technological control over societies then, we will really miss USA as a hegemony.
- consumer451 4y agoThis is the best interpretation of the geopolitical events which we are living through that I have read on this website. I am astounded that so many intelligent people in the USA and EU fail to grasp the stakes of what is happening in Ukraine.
- hax0ron3 4y ago>Everybody will see that you can invade a weaker country, for whatever made up reason, and nothing happens. I think that most people who make foreign policy decisions in countries around the world already knew that if you are strong enough, you can invade a weaker country, for whatever reason, and nothing happens. This is just plain common sense and has been discussed going back to Thucydides' Melian Dialogue or earlier. And if anyone somehow did not realize that the strong can get away with invading the weak, they should have realized it in 2003 when the US invaded Iraq.