Well say you have one theory you reckon has a 40% chance of being correct, one theory with a 5% chance, and one theory with a 55% chance. One theory is more lik

Well say you have one theory you reckon has a 40% chance of being correct, one theory with a 5% chance, and one theory with a 55% chance. One theory is more likely than the rest put together, but is still almost as likely to be incorrect as not. Plus "none of the above" is always an option. You could have 3 theories that all have very little supporting evidence - one of those theories could be the most likely of all the actual theories, but "none of the above" could be even more likely if the best theory is still weak. It sounds like it's just semantics but there's a world of difference between saying a theory is very likely correct and saying that it's the most likely of competing theories.