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Interestingly, the CIA has published a paper on exactly this subject: Words of Estimative Probability (PDF) https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/studies-in-intell
by Bjartr 4y ago
Interestingly, the CIA has published a paper on exactly this subject:
Words of Estimative Probability (PDF) https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/studies-in-intelligence/archives/vol-8-no-4/words-of-estimative-probability/ https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/studies-in-intelligence/ar...
- cameldrv 4y agoModerate and Low are Words of Analytic Confidence [1]. This has more to do with the quality of the sourcing than a numeric probability number. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analytic_confidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analytic_confidence