Taking your argument as a premise, for cinema 2) is well in progress. Canon EOS SLR's, stuff to hang them on, and digital editing are knocking down a big part

Taking your argument as a premise, for cinema 2) is well in progress. Canon EOS SLR's, stuff to hang them on, and digital editing are knocking down a big part of equipment costs. (You still have lights and all that, but there are ways to keep that manageable.) You're left with wages, permits, and stuff I won't try to guess (e.g. catering, etc., etc.). High level professional abilities will continue to be a minority of interested parties. But, with cost of entry so lowered, the population to draw from will be much larger. And with the lower barrier to entry, people old and particularly young will be able to practice these skills and have the motivation of a distribution channel to fuel them on, without fight for a place and clamor to buy into such an entrenched regime. Another big, undersung aspect of such a transition is to get the writers, and the artisans, to work for the new model. Really good writing does not come easy. But there is still plenty of talent, and compensation under the new model(s) should not have too much difficulty being competitive for these jobs (maybe I'm wrong, but based one what I hear/read). Oh, the other 800 lb gorilla: Unions. Movie and TV production is very heavily unionized. If they want to strongarm their members and potential members from participating, this could present a significant problem. A question might be whether beginners/outsiders can build enough momentum if there is little or no support from seasoned professionals. This is all off the top of my head. I may be wrong.