7 ms·

> Free Ingria […] has potential No, it's a toy movement. > There's no part of Russia bordering Ukraine that Ukraine could take as a bargaining chip Transnist

> Free Ingria […] has potential No, it's a toy movement. > There's no part of Russia bordering Ukraine that Ukraine could take as a bargaining chip Transnistria could play precisely that role.

notahacker 4y ago
Don't really see Transnistria as remotely useful as a bargaining chip. Sure it's propped up by Russia and would eventually be integrated into Russia under Putin's wildest imperial fantasies, but it's not Russia, its people mostly aren't Russian and I'm not sure it's all that valuable either. All a Ukrainian invasion of Transnistria would do is give Putin's claims about Ukrainian aggression some veneer of legitimacy and annoy Moldova, which doesn't want to see something which is constitutionally part of their territory fought over and then bargained back to Russian control...
- pydry 4y ago
  >its people mostly aren't Russian They basically are. They speak Russian and act like Russians. I doubt they'd mind being annexed.
  - RivieraKid 4y ago
    I've recently read that only about 30% identify as Russians.
    - bigdict 4y ago
      Yeah, the largest ethnic group. The largest ethnic group in California is Latinos. What's the issue?
      - RivieraKid 4y ago
        I think your assumption that people who say they're ethnically non-Russian are basically Russian and would be ok with annexation by Russia is wrong.
        bigdict 4y ago
        What is that thought based on?
  - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
    >They basically are. They don't have russian passorts. How can they be russians?
    - bigdict 4y ago
      > They don't have russian passorts. You clearly are not familiar with how things work in Transnistria.
      - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
        I'm from around that region so I'm quite familiar. Just because Putin says those people are Russians so he can claim some clay, doesn't make it a fact. Sure some are ethnically Russian, but that doesn't make them Russian citizens of the Federal Russian Republic. They are Moldovan citizens. Transnistria is a rouge separatist nation that's not internationally recognized and only exists on paper because Russia is a nuclear power which has troops and weapons there and Moldova is too weak to do anything about it.
        bigdict 4y ago
        > I'm from around that region so I'm quite familiar. Not sufficiently familiar then. "It is estimated that about 250,000 out of 500,000 people living in Transnistria hold Russian citizenship." That's as of 2020, "passportization" has continued since then. https://warsawinstitute.org/russia-hands-passports-diaspora/ https://warsawinstitute.org/russia-hands-passports-diaspora/
        mazurnification 4y ago
        But Transnistria has between 360k - 475k ppl (from Wikipedia). Plus everybody want Romanian passport (which is not that hard to get if you are Moldovan) - due to UE free movement ...
        ChuckNorris89 4y ago
        If France were to give french passports to a lot of Germans in a particular region of Germany, that region doesn't magically become a French asset/territory.
anextio 4y ago
The Russians have shown that they don't care about holding territory in the short term, see Kherson withdrawal, etc. They are only focused on attrition and minimizing their own casualties. If Ukraine goes into Transnistria it will not force Russia to capitulate.
- meheleventyone 4y ago
  > “They are only focused on attrition and minimizing their own casualties.” ??? That’s errr... going poorly.
  - anextio 4y ago
    https://meduza.io/amp/en/news/2023/02/17/close-to-15k-russians-killed-in-ukraine-since-start-of-invasion-identified-through-open-sources https://meduza.io/amp/en/news/2023/02/17/close-to-15k-russia... An investigation via open sources by the BBC and Meduza (an anti-Putin media outlet based in Latvia) has confirmed the deaths of about 15k Russian soldiers since the start of the war, and estimates the true number to be up to 60% higher. What sources do you have that the widely reported media number of 200k+ is actually true that doesn’t ultimately come from the government of Ukraine (who would have an interest in over-inflating their victories) or by a western government that is militarily supporting Ukraine?
    - andrewflnr 4y ago
      The sources I'm seeing that say 200k include injuries. Combined with your source on actual deaths, that puts injuries:deaths at around 10:1, which sounds right.
    - meheleventyone 4y ago
      Yes like I said... err... that’s going poorly.
    - dragonwriter 4y ago
      > An investigation via open sources by the BBC and Meduza (an anti-Putin media outlet based in Latvia) has confirmed the deaths of about 15k Russian soldiers since the start of the war, and estimates the true number to be up to 60% higher. Where do you get the estimate of the true number? Your cited source only has the count of the named individuals identified, not anything corresponding to your claimed total KIA estimate. (Also, the investigation was published, as you linked, by Meduza, but conducted by the BBC and Mediazona, not the BBC and Meduza.) > What sources do you have that the widely reported media number of 200k+ is actually true that doesn’t ultimately come from the government of Ukraine (who would have an interest in over-inflating their victories) or by a western government that is militarily supporting Ukraine? Who else (besides sources with opposite biases, like official Russian sources – who haven’t provided casualty estimates since September) would have the kind of information necessary to make a meaningful estimate? (Also, the most commonly cited figure, which is sourced to the UK Ministry of Defense, is “up to” 200,000 casualties, with 40,000-60,000 KIA, not 200K+ KIA.) But even if we go by that confirmed-by-name count as the full count of KIA, it roughly matches the Soviet KIA in Afghanistan, which was instrumental in the collapse of the USSR, so, going quite badly.
gerikson 4y ago
Isn't Transnistria legally part of Moldova? Russia can't trade that away against Moldova's wishes, and even if it was to try , it would be against the international law that made the invasion of Ukraine and annexing its territory illegal in the first place.
- bigdict 4y ago
  International law is for client states.
dragonwriter 4y ago
> Transnistria could play precisely that role. Transnistria isn’t part of Russia and Ukraine isn’t going to take it from Moldova.
- bigdict 4y ago
  > Transnistria isn’t part of Russia It is controlled by Russia. > Ukraine isn’t going to take it from Moldova. What is that based on?
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    > It is controlled by Russia. And Ukraine obviously supports the Moldovan government’s opposition to that condition, but Ukraine isn’t going to unilaterally invade Moldova to fight Russians while its got plenty of Russians in Ukraine to deal with.
    - bigdict 4y ago
      Why are you so certain? Have you heard of the Cobasna ammo depot? It would be mutually beneficial to Ukraine and Moldova if Ukraine were to gain control of that depot and then cede back to Moldova.
      - gerikson 4y ago
        It would be like gaining control over an unstable nuclear reactor. https://www.arnika.org/en/hotspots/moldova/the-largest-illegal-arms-depot-in-eastern-europe https://www.arnika.org/en/hotspots/moldova/the-largest-illeg... Cobasna is a huge problem in waiting but it's not an urgent problem. The real solution is for Russia (as the Soviet Union's biggest successor state) to handle the cleanup and reparations when the region is handed back to Moldova.

> Free Ingria […] has potential No, it's a toy movement. > There's no part of Russia bordering Ukraine that Ukraine could take as a bargaining chip Transnistria could play precisely that role.

notahacker 4y ago

Don't really see Transnistria as remotely useful as a bargaining chip. Sure it's propped up by Russia and would eventually be integrated into Russia under Putin's wildest imperial fantasies, but it's not Russia, its people mostly aren't Russian and I'm not sure it's all that valuable either. All a Ukrainian invasion of Transnistria would do is give Putin's claims about Ukrainian aggression some veneer of legitimacy and annoy Moldova, which doesn't want to see something which is constitutionally part of their territory fought over and then bargained back to Russian control...

pydry 4y ago
>its people mostly aren't Russian They basically are. They speak Russian and act like Russians. I doubt they'd mind being annexed.
- RivieraKid 4y ago
  I've recently read that only about 30% identify as Russians.
  - bigdict 4y ago
    Yeah, the largest ethnic group. The largest ethnic group in California is Latinos. What's the issue?
    - RivieraKid 4y ago
      I think your assumption that people who say they're ethnically non-Russian are basically Russian and would be ok with annexation by Russia is wrong.
      - bigdict 4y ago
        What is that thought based on?
- ChuckNorris89 4y ago
  >They basically are. They don't have russian passorts. How can they be russians?
  - bigdict 4y ago
    > They don't have russian passorts. You clearly are not familiar with how things work in Transnistria.
    - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
      I'm from around that region so I'm quite familiar. Just because Putin says those people are Russians so he can claim some clay, doesn't make it a fact. Sure some are ethnically Russian, but that doesn't make them Russian citizens of the Federal Russian Republic. They are Moldovan citizens. Transnistria is a rouge separatist nation that's not internationally recognized and only exists on paper because Russia is a nuclear power which has troops and weapons there and Moldova is too weak to do anything about it.
      - bigdict 4y ago
        > I'm from around that region so I'm quite familiar. Not sufficiently familiar then. "It is estimated that about 250,000 out of 500,000 people living in Transnistria hold Russian citizenship." That's as of 2020, "passportization" has continued since then. https://warsawinstitute.org/russia-hands-passports-diaspora/ https://warsawinstitute.org/russia-hands-passports-diaspora/
        mazurnification 4y ago
        But Transnistria has between 360k - 475k ppl (from Wikipedia). Plus everybody want Romanian passport (which is not that hard to get if you are Moldovan) - due to UE free movement ...
        ChuckNorris89 4y ago
        If France were to give french passports to a lot of Germans in a particular region of Germany, that region doesn't magically become a French asset/territory.

anextio 4y ago

The Russians have shown that they don't care about holding territory in the short term, see Kherson withdrawal, etc. They are only focused on attrition and minimizing their own casualties. If Ukraine goes into Transnistria it will not force Russia to capitulate.

meheleventyone 4y ago
> “They are only focused on attrition and minimizing their own casualties.” ??? That’s errr... going poorly.
- anextio 4y ago
  https://meduza.io/amp/en/news/2023/02/17/close-to-15k-russians-killed-in-ukraine-since-start-of-invasion-identified-through-open-sources https://meduza.io/amp/en/news/2023/02/17/close-to-15k-russia... An investigation via open sources by the BBC and Meduza (an anti-Putin media outlet based in Latvia) has confirmed the deaths of about 15k Russian soldiers since the start of the war, and estimates the true number to be up to 60% higher. What sources do you have that the widely reported media number of 200k+ is actually true that doesn’t ultimately come from the government of Ukraine (who would have an interest in over-inflating their victories) or by a western government that is militarily supporting Ukraine?
  - andrewflnr 4y ago
    The sources I'm seeing that say 200k include injuries. Combined with your source on actual deaths, that puts injuries:deaths at around 10:1, which sounds right.
  - meheleventyone 4y ago
    Yes like I said... err... that’s going poorly.
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    > An investigation via open sources by the BBC and Meduza (an anti-Putin media outlet based in Latvia) has confirmed the deaths of about 15k Russian soldiers since the start of the war, and estimates the true number to be up to 60% higher. Where do you get the estimate of the true number? Your cited source only has the count of the named individuals identified, not anything corresponding to your claimed total KIA estimate. (Also, the investigation was published, as you linked, by Meduza, but conducted by the BBC and Mediazona, not the BBC and Meduza.) > What sources do you have that the widely reported media number of 200k+ is actually true that doesn’t ultimately come from the government of Ukraine (who would have an interest in over-inflating their victories) or by a western government that is militarily supporting Ukraine? Who else (besides sources with opposite biases, like official Russian sources – who haven’t provided casualty estimates since September) would have the kind of information necessary to make a meaningful estimate? (Also, the most commonly cited figure, which is sourced to the UK Ministry of Defense, is “up to” 200,000 casualties, with 40,000-60,000 KIA, not 200K+ KIA.) But even if we go by that confirmed-by-name count as the full count of KIA, it roughly matches the Soviet KIA in Afghanistan, which was instrumental in the collapse of the USSR, so, going quite badly.

gerikson 4y ago

Isn't Transnistria legally part of Moldova? Russia can't trade that away against Moldova's wishes, and even if it was to try , it would be against the international law that made the invasion of Ukraine and annexing its territory illegal in the first place.

bigdict 4y ago
International law is for client states.

dragonwriter 4y ago

> Transnistria could play precisely that role. Transnistria isn’t part of Russia and Ukraine isn’t going to take it from Moldova.

bigdict 4y ago
> Transnistria isn’t part of Russia It is controlled by Russia. > Ukraine isn’t going to take it from Moldova. What is that based on?
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > It is controlled by Russia. And Ukraine obviously supports the Moldovan government’s opposition to that condition, but Ukraine isn’t going to unilaterally invade Moldova to fight Russians while its got plenty of Russians in Ukraine to deal with.
  - bigdict 4y ago
    Why are you so certain? Have you heard of the Cobasna ammo depot? It would be mutually beneficial to Ukraine and Moldova if Ukraine were to gain control of that depot and then cede back to Moldova.
    - gerikson 4y ago
      It would be like gaining control over an unstable nuclear reactor. https://www.arnika.org/en/hotspots/moldova/the-largest-illegal-arms-depot-in-eastern-europe https://www.arnika.org/en/hotspots/moldova/the-largest-illeg... Cobasna is a huge problem in waiting but it's not an urgent problem. The real solution is for Russia (as the Soviet Union's biggest successor state) to handle the cleanup and reparations when the region is handed back to Moldova.