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The illicit share of all cryptocurrency transaction volume in 2022 was 0.24%. https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2023-crypto-crime-report-introduction/ https

The illicit share of all cryptocurrency transaction volume in 2022 was 0.24%. https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2023-crypto-crime-report-introduction/ https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2023-crypto-crime-repor...

rco8786 4y ago
Sorry but how on earth is this data supposed to be reliable when the underlying transactions are explicitly anonymous
- dopidopHN 4y ago
  They are pseudo-anonymous at best.
  - rco8786 4y ago
    On an individual basis maybe, but on a macro statistical scale there is no way you can classify transactions as illicit or not with any remote degree of accuracy.
    - JohnFen 4y ago
      Oh, what a good point. There are different kinds of anonymity, I think. There's anonymity of the identity of people, and anonymity of the nature of the transaction. Most cryptocurrency is bad at the former and good at the latter.
      - rco8786 4y ago
        Like heck, tradfi banks can't even do this and they have oodles of regulations and KYC laws and fraud/money laundering prevention mechanisms.
    - dopidopHN 4y ago
      What about “normal” financial illegal trades? Like wash trade and layered trade ? Those are detectable by analyzing the order book of exchanges for instance. No identity is needed
- partiallypro 4y ago
  Not only that, but speculative trading volume isn't the same as a normal transaction like buying a pizza. You can't count that in the numbers, but these numbers don't seem to indicate they are eliminating that noise. They do explicitly say they don't include ponzi schemes that have collapsed as "elicit."
CBarkleyU 4y ago
Quoting: [1] Notes on our illicit transaction volume chart: These are lower bound estimates that will likely rise over time as additional illicit activity is discovered. This does not include off-chain criminal activity where proceeds may have been moved into crypto for laundering, though that activity can still be traced. This does not include volumes associated with centralized services that collapsed in 2022, some of which are facing charges of fraud, given lack of off-chain insights. Funds received by sanctioned entity Garantex accounts for much of 2022’s illicit volume. While most of that activity is likely Russian users using a Russian exchange, most compliance professionals treat this as illicit activity.
rhaway84773 4y ago
What would be more interesting is what percentage of real world economic activity, as opposed to currency exchanges, is made up of illicit activity. Money transfers, goods purchases, etc. as opposed to converting BTC into USDC.

rco8786 4y ago

Sorry but how on earth is this data supposed to be reliable when the underlying transactions are explicitly anonymous

dopidopHN 4y ago
They are pseudo-anonymous at best.
- rco8786 4y ago
  On an individual basis maybe, but on a macro statistical scale there is no way you can classify transactions as illicit or not with any remote degree of accuracy.
  - JohnFen 4y ago
    Oh, what a good point. There are different kinds of anonymity, I think. There's anonymity of the identity of people, and anonymity of the nature of the transaction. Most cryptocurrency is bad at the former and good at the latter.
    - rco8786 4y ago
      Like heck, tradfi banks can't even do this and they have oodles of regulations and KYC laws and fraud/money laundering prevention mechanisms.
  - dopidopHN 4y ago
    What about “normal” financial illegal trades? Like wash trade and layered trade ? Those are detectable by analyzing the order book of exchanges for instance. No identity is needed
partiallypro 4y ago
Not only that, but speculative trading volume isn't the same as a normal transaction like buying a pizza. You can't count that in the numbers, but these numbers don't seem to indicate they are eliminating that noise. They do explicitly say they don't include ponzi schemes that have collapsed as "elicit."

CBarkleyU 4y ago

Quoting: [1] Notes on our illicit transaction volume chart: These are lower bound estimates that will likely rise over time as additional illicit activity is discovered. This does not include off-chain criminal activity where proceeds may have been moved into crypto for laundering, though that activity can still be traced. This does not include volumes associated with centralized services that collapsed in 2022, some of which are facing charges of fraud, given lack of off-chain insights. Funds received by sanctioned entity Garantex accounts for much of 2022’s illicit volume. While most of that activity is likely Russian users using a Russian exchange, most compliance professionals treat this as illicit activity.

rhaway84773 4y ago

What would be more interesting is what percentage of real world economic activity, as opposed to currency exchanges, is made up of illicit activity. Money transfers, goods purchases, etc. as opposed to converting BTC into USDC.