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> "theoretical probability" vs. "experimental probability"... huh? That raised my eyebrows as well. It looks like it's a Thing They Teach In Schools These Days
by n4r9 4y ago
> "theoretical probability" vs. "experimental probability"... huh?
That raised my eyebrows as well. It looks like it's a Thing They Teach In Schools These Days: https://www.statisticshowto.com/theoretical-probability/ https://www.statisticshowto.com/theoretical-probability/
My guess is they're trying to get kids to think about inductive Vs deductive reasoning. And it may set a foundation for understanding the difference between a posterior and a priori distributions. But it comes across as if they're a different type of object, which feels a little off.
- epgui 4y agoI'm not sure if this is related, but I believe there are very deep open questions in probability (eg.: the interpretation of probabilities based on counter-factuals) and it's what came to mind: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations
- AstixAndBelix 4y agoWait, isn't "experimental probability" literally what statistics is?
- n4r9 4y agoIn some sense statistics is like "applied" probability, which does sound a bit like "experimental" probability but that's not what I understand the linked article to mean. My understanding is: I flip a coin twice. It lands heads-up both times. Then the experimental probability of this coin landing heads-up is 1. You give me a coin which you guarantee has a 50/50 chance of landing heads-up. The theoretical probability of it landing heads-up twice is 1/4. Either type of probability can be used in statistics.
- AstixAndBelix 4y agoDunno, at my college course we were taught that probability is about knowing the probabilistic properties of an experiment and predicting its outcomes, whereas statistic is about knowing the outcomes and predicting the probabilistic properties of the experiment
- kqr 4y agoThis is close to correct. Statistics (the old school kind) is just about computing summary metrics for large amounts of data. Probability is about deriving properties of a sample from the population, based on population parameters. Statistical inference (what is usually meant by "statistics" these days) is about figuring out what sort of population parameters could have produced the sample at hand -- i.e. probability but backwards.
- mhh__ 4y agoSubjectivity in probability theory goes back quite a long time.