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Lot of cherry picking in that analysis and also you are comparing index whereas I meant individual tech stocks. Let’s not forget in speculative bubbles everythi
by alchemist1e9 4y ago
Lot of cherry picking in that analysis and also you are comparing index whereas I meant individual tech stocks. Let’s not forget in speculative bubbles everything has downside volatility but lots of real and important assets undergo manias, real estate, railroads, even 1999 nasdaq then crashing 90%, left out of the analysis conveniently.
I’d go as far as the argue that given the grandiose goal of competing with sovereign fiat as modern private currency, the volatility of Bitcoin is likely lower than one could reasonably expect. If we add in the reality that recent mania and crash was overwhelming instigated by perhaps the largest conventional or legacy financial fraud in modern history, FTX, then Bitcoin looks almost sleepy.
Even funnier in the cherry picked analysis was they included Turkish Lira and it was 8.83, it’s now 18.89 per dollar. It along with numerous other fiat currencies have much higher volatility than Bitcoin.
- komali2 4y agoI'm glad you acknowledge that Bitcoin is vulnerable to having its value cut in half by the collapse of a single company. People should probably continue to invest long term in index funds, advice that hasn't changed in decades. Yes, I agree that it's a horrible situation that Americans depend on the stock market whims to retire, but that's more due to America's allergies to socialism than an indictment of the market itself. It's still a demonstrably better investment instrument.
- alchemist1e9 4y agohttps://iea.org.uk/publications/socialism-the-failed-idea-that-never-dies/ https://iea.org.uk/publications/socialism-the-failed-idea-th... Yes that’s certainly true that index funds are a much safer investment than Bitcoin. I wouldn’t dispute that. It’s absolutely expected that risk assets will have high uncertainty around their prices. +/- 50% changes is absolutely normal in free markets for many risk assets. Socialism provides no solutions but in this case there isn’t even a problem. Statism and socialism in my opinion are scourges of human civilization that bring nothing but misery and war. Viable modern private currency like Bitcoin provides great hope for humanity that the war machines funded by fiat currencies might have an end in sight, maybe in next 100 years. most people don’t realize that the type of money we use, fiat sovereign currency, was specifically invented to help wage war and specifically serves this purpose today as well.
- komali2 4y agoI mentioned that Americans depend on the whims of the market for their retirement, rather than most developed nations which have pensions and government sponsored retirement. This is generally what people mean when they say "socialism" as described in the current capitalist system we all live under. In America, you call your politicians that advocate for this sort of thing, "democratic socialists." Bernie Sanders is an example. Did you think I meant a socialist revolution seeking communism? Is that what you think Germans, Fins, Taiwanese, or Norwegians living on government pensions are doing lol? Well, that demonstrates my point re: americans are allergic to the word "socialism." I mentioned better ways for people to have a guaranteed retirement, such as a socialist policy of government pensions, and you immediately thought I was calling for a Stalinist regime? Out of curiosity, are you an anarchocapitalist? It sounds like you believe a free market of bitcoin will grant people more freedom than socialistically regulated capitalism. That'd be nice, but the evidence doesn't seem to be in favor of this argument.
- alchemist1e9 4y agoConfining socialism to government pension programs I would consider to be deceptive rebranding. I have no problem with government pension or insurance programs as long as governments don’t use monopoly power to ban private competition with such programs and the programs originate via democratic process. Socialism should be reserved as a label for direct government participation and control over economic activity. Of course there is a subtle nuance when redistribution programs are funded by unsustainable fiat money printing. You asked if I identify with the label anarchocapitalist I don’t personally however I can seen why the need to label might result in that being applied to me when I try to explain my primary thesis. I will attempt it briefly. However, first let me explain that local and small scale governments that advocate democratic socialism can be excellent healthy communities. The issue is with scale and comes to the fundamental issue of money. Money is a social construction is an often touted liberal arts viewpoint. I will counter that money is actually organic and natural and not purely a human social construct. There are many examples in animal world where organisms use a medium of exchange to collaborate. Experiments in primates show they will intrinsically create a currency framework if provided with an appropriate medium. Females of numerous animals regularly will exchange sexual behavior for food, often in desperation like humans, in situations of abundance they will stop this pattern. Money and it’s characteristics have a profound impact on human social activity. Our current form of money, sovereign fiat, has only existed since 1000 AD in the east and not until early 1700s in the west. This money form enables war. Period. It was invented in all cases to enable states to wage war without actually having the resources to do so. Much like financial commentators discuss leverage, fiat currency, is the original leverage. Kings borrowing from the future, from their own population, using threat of force and sovereign power. This fundamental dynamic has driven the last 300+ years of human history and conflict. Private currencies when previously flourished have promoted peace and rapid economic development, of course those period can also have manias and crashes but in comparison to world war are insignificant on the scale of human suffering. Bitcoin represents the first viable attempt to challenge fiat currency as a form on money. It’s a very exciting development in human progress. Local and state governments promoting what you call socialism can potentially benefit as the enormous tax on human productivity extracted by large federal governments using fiat to fund their militaries and other forms of oppression and violence will be freed up.
- latchkey 4y ago> I'm glad you acknowledge that Bitcoin is vulnerable to having its value cut in half by the collapse of a single company. It wasn't a single company. It was a chain of events over many months and huge amount of contagion.