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How much of this is Autopilot only being used in safer situations? There’s also been reports of autopilot disengaging seconds before a crash, so those technica

by tyre 4y ago

How much of this is Autopilot only being used in safer situations? There’s also been reports of autopilot disengaging seconds before a crash, so those technically didn’t occur while Autopilot was active

lern_too_spel 4y ago
Entirely. People pointed this (that Autopilot is only possible to engage on the freeway and that drivers will do so only in situations they feel comfortable with) out to Tesla each of the previous times they released such numbers, and they haven't corrected it, which tells you all you need to know about what the corrected numbers would show.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
petesergeant 4y ago
From the methods section, they're counting where it was on in up to the 5 seconds before the crash; I've no idea if that's reasonable or not, and it would be interesting to know what happens to the numbers if you push that up to 20s. > To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact, and we count all crashes in which the incident alert indicated an airbag or other active restraint deployed. (Our crash statistics are not based on sample data sets or estimates.) In practice, this correlates to nearly any crash at about 12 mph (20 kph) or above, depending on the crash forces generated.
askvictor 4y ago
Much like (in Australia at least), every time a car crashed that was being pursued by a police vehicle, the police would report that "the pursuit had been called off shortly before the crash" (and media would subsequently publish said report without question). Back to Tesla - what sort of warning is given when the autopilot is going to disengage?
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
dv_dt 4y ago
One way to analyze this is to ignore if Autopilot is on at the moment of a crash and make a gross comparison of Autopilot equipped vehicles accidents rate over mileage. A side stat would be if possible to see of there is a correlation between amount of Autopilot on time vs accident rate (again ignoring if ap is on at the moment of a crash). This is answering a different question than is Autopilot effective when on, but is Autopilot capability + the human employment of it create an observable effect in accident rates.
- 7e 4y ago
  Highways are 10x safer than non-highway miles, and AP may be selectively engaged in only the safest situations. A population study would be tricky to do, because all recent Teslas have Autopilot and Teslas as a whole are newer cars driven by rich people, with a heavy bias towards California. Further, Teslas have automatic emergency braking independent of Autopilot. So you can’t compare accident rates as a whole, but you could compare accident rates of, say, new Mercedes or BMWs with Teslas in California, which have roughly the same capabilities and are driven by the same rich people (though possibly slightly older).

by tyre 4y ago

lern_too_spel 4y ago

Entirely. People pointed this (that Autopilot is only possible to engage on the freeway and that drivers will do so only in situations they feel comfortable with) out to Tesla each of the previous times they released such numbers, and they haven't corrected it, which tells you all you need to know about what the corrected numbers would show.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

petesergeant 4y ago

From the methods section, they're counting where it was on in up to the 5 seconds before the crash; I've no idea if that's reasonable or not, and it would be interesting to know what happens to the numbers if you push that up to 20s. > To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact, and we count all crashes in which the incident alert indicated an airbag or other active restraint deployed. (Our crash statistics are not based on sample data sets or estimates.) In practice, this correlates to nearly any crash at about 12 mph (20 kph) or above, depending on the crash forces generated.

askvictor 4y ago

Much like (in Australia at least), every time a car crashed that was being pursued by a police vehicle, the police would report that "the pursuit had been called off shortly before the crash" (and media would subsequently publish said report without question). Back to Tesla - what sort of warning is given when the autopilot is going to disengage?

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

dv_dt 4y ago

One way to analyze this is to ignore if Autopilot is on at the moment of a crash and make a gross comparison of Autopilot equipped vehicles accidents rate over mileage. A side stat would be if possible to see of there is a correlation between amount of Autopilot on time vs accident rate (again ignoring if ap is on at the moment of a crash). This is answering a different question than is Autopilot effective when on, but is Autopilot capability + the human employment of it create an observable effect in accident rates.

7e 4y ago
Highways are 10x safer than non-highway miles, and AP may be selectively engaged in only the safest situations. A population study would be tricky to do, because all recent Teslas have Autopilot and Teslas as a whole are newer cars driven by rich people, with a heavy bias towards California. Further, Teslas have automatic emergency braking independent of Autopilot. So you can’t compare accident rates as a whole, but you could compare accident rates of, say, new Mercedes or BMWs with Teslas in California, which have roughly the same capabilities and are driven by the same rich people (though possibly slightly older).