4 ms·

I hear the idea the S&P will go 10% every year (in real value) being treated like a natural law by some people despite the fact that this is obviously impossibl

I hear the idea the S&P will go 10% every year (in real value) being treated like a natural law by some people despite the fact that this is obviously impossible. It's a heck of a thing to try and time the peak of the market though.

everfree 4y ago
> I hear the idea the S&P will go 10% every year (in real value) being treated like a natural law by some people despite the fact that this is obviously impossible. Why is it obviously impossible? It just requires technology to improve at such a rate so that we can extract 10% more value every year from the same amount of labor (minus inflation).
- faeriechangling 4y ago
  Because we will run out of natural resources. Our supply of natural resources is not going to increase by 10% year over year over the next century unless one of those technologies we develop is alchemy.
  - SirLJ 4y ago
    As I do this for a living, let me point out, the index is not set in stone, new companies and technologies all replace the old and it will continue forward…
  - everfree 4y ago
    Productivity is a function of technology, labor, and natural resources. If technology improves by 10%, we can still see a 10% increase in wealth even if labor and natural resources remain steady. If technology improves by a whole lot, we could theoretically even see an increase in wealth amidst decreasing labor and natural resources.
  - segmondy 4y ago
    where in the world did you get the idea that the growth of SP500 and natural resources are correlated? This is very naive. There's 0 correlation. SP500 can go up 100x with 0% productivity. It's called hyperinflation.
WXLCKNO 4y ago
Boomers retiring in large numbers doesn't seem like a bad place for things to stop going up for a decade or more as they gradually dump their holdings to pay for retirement. Dump unto generations who are strapped for cash trying to buy the overpriced houses boomers also use as their retirement fund. Nothing against boomers by the way, just stating some random potentially not factual things.
kamaal 4y ago
This, and the argument of compounding. That they will take trades that are profitable, and they will reinvest their profits to make more profits and that there are always people who will lose their trades and they will win. People state this like some law of nature.

everfree 4y ago

> I hear the idea the S&P will go 10% every year (in real value) being treated like a natural law by some people despite the fact that this is obviously impossible. Why is it obviously impossible? It just requires technology to improve at such a rate so that we can extract 10% more value every year from the same amount of labor (minus inflation).

faeriechangling 4y ago
Because we will run out of natural resources. Our supply of natural resources is not going to increase by 10% year over year over the next century unless one of those technologies we develop is alchemy.
- SirLJ 4y ago
  As I do this for a living, let me point out, the index is not set in stone, new companies and technologies all replace the old and it will continue forward…
- everfree 4y ago
  Productivity is a function of technology, labor, and natural resources. If technology improves by 10%, we can still see a 10% increase in wealth even if labor and natural resources remain steady. If technology improves by a whole lot, we could theoretically even see an increase in wealth amidst decreasing labor and natural resources.
- segmondy 4y ago
  where in the world did you get the idea that the growth of SP500 and natural resources are correlated? This is very naive. There's 0 correlation. SP500 can go up 100x with 0% productivity. It's called hyperinflation.

WXLCKNO 4y ago

Boomers retiring in large numbers doesn't seem like a bad place for things to stop going up for a decade or more as they gradually dump their holdings to pay for retirement. Dump unto generations who are strapped for cash trying to buy the overpriced houses boomers also use as their retirement fund. Nothing against boomers by the way, just stating some random potentially not factual things.

kamaal 4y ago

This, and the argument of compounding. That they will take trades that are profitable, and they will reinvest their profits to make more profits and that there are always people who will lose their trades and they will win. People state this like some law of nature.