5 ms·

Well, here we go again

tom_ 4y ago
This sort of thing happens all the time, and on average no global pandemic comes of it. What are the odds this will be the same?
- virgildotcodes 4y ago
  Really tempting the gods here.
- throwaway5752 4y ago
  The current situation for H5N1 is different than it has been in the past. * https://www.science.org/content/article/incredibly-concerning-bird-flu-outbreak-spanish-mink-farm-triggers-pandemic-fears https://www.science.org/content/article/incredibly-concernin..., "H5N1 appears to have spread through a densely packed mammalian population and gained at least one mutation that favors mammal-to-mammal spread" * https://www.npr.org/2022/12/02/1140076426/what-we-know-about-the-deadliest-u-s-bird-flu-outbreak-in-history https://www.npr.org/2022/12/02/1140076426/what-we-know-about... "Unlike the 2014-15 outbreak, this one is being driven by wild birds, not by farm-to-farm transmission" That said the risk is still low and the best thing to do is read experts: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2022-2023/avian-flu-highly-pathogenic.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2022-2023/avian-... "The current public health threat to people from H5N1 virus is low. The current H5N1 outbreak in poultry and birds continues to be mostly an animal health issue. However, people should avoid direct and close contact with sick or dead wild birds, poultry, and wild animals. People should not consume uncooked or undercooked poultry or poultry products, including raw eggs."
- munk-a 4y ago
  This probably won't develop into a global pandemic - but the odds of global pandemics is constantly increasing as we continue expanding factory farming and shrinking natural reserves. That's sort of the key tune of climate change: everything awful gets more frequent, but it's still probabilistic.
throwaway12245 4y ago
It does not appear to be highly transmissible between mammals. If it mutates, this could change.
- 323 4y ago
  Don't worry, surely there are some virologists in some lab mapping right now exactly what mutations would make it very transmissible between mammals. So that we are ready and prepared, of course.
- gwern 4y ago
  Up until a few months ago, it wasn't transmissible between mammals at all: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Mammal-to-mammal_transmission_(2022%E2%80%932023) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mammals_that_can_get_H5N1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mammals_that_can_get_H...

tom_ 4y ago

This sort of thing happens all the time, and on average no global pandemic comes of it. What are the odds this will be the same?

virgildotcodes 4y ago
Really tempting the gods here.
throwaway5752 4y ago
The current situation for H5N1 is different than it has been in the past. * https://www.science.org/content/article/incredibly-concerning-bird-flu-outbreak-spanish-mink-farm-triggers-pandemic-fears https://www.science.org/content/article/incredibly-concernin..., "H5N1 appears to have spread through a densely packed mammalian population and gained at least one mutation that favors mammal-to-mammal spread" * https://www.npr.org/2022/12/02/1140076426/what-we-know-about-the-deadliest-u-s-bird-flu-outbreak-in-history https://www.npr.org/2022/12/02/1140076426/what-we-know-about... "Unlike the 2014-15 outbreak, this one is being driven by wild birds, not by farm-to-farm transmission" That said the risk is still low and the best thing to do is read experts: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2022-2023/avian-flu-highly-pathogenic.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2022-2023/avian-... "The current public health threat to people from H5N1 virus is low. The current H5N1 outbreak in poultry and birds continues to be mostly an animal health issue. However, people should avoid direct and close contact with sick or dead wild birds, poultry, and wild animals. People should not consume uncooked or undercooked poultry or poultry products, including raw eggs."
munk-a 4y ago
This probably won't develop into a global pandemic - but the odds of global pandemics is constantly increasing as we continue expanding factory farming and shrinking natural reserves. That's sort of the key tune of climate change: everything awful gets more frequent, but it's still probabilistic.

throwaway12245 4y ago

It does not appear to be highly transmissible between mammals. If it mutates, this could change.

323 4y ago
Don't worry, surely there are some virologists in some lab mapping right now exactly what mutations would make it very transmissible between mammals. So that we are ready and prepared, of course.
gwern 4y ago
Up until a few months ago, it wasn't transmissible between mammals at all: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Mammal-to-mammal_transmission_(2022%E2%80%932023) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mammals_that_can_get_H5N1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mammals_that_can_get_H...