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This is a bit shallow a take. Current batteries may be wrangled to provide adequate range to cars, but it comes at a significant weight/volume knock-on costs.

This is a bit shallow a take. Current batteries may be wrangled to provide adequate range to cars, but it comes at a significant weight/volume knock-on costs. A large heavy battery requires increased weights of shielding and frame structure, it's almost exponential. Tesla 3 battery weighs more than its max payload.

rgmerk 4y ago
Yes, that's all true. Lithium-air EVs could be significantly lighter and cheaper than current-generation EVs. But even if that doesn't happen EVs are going to represent the majority of new cars sold in the quite near future.
- jtc331 4y ago
  “Quite the near future” means what to you? 2030? 2035? 2040?
  - rgmerk 4y ago
    The IEA, hardly the most adventurous of forecasters, guesses that, globally, 60% of new cars will be EVs by 2030.
- ComputerGuru 4y ago
  Just bear in mind that, as of a couple of years ago, the average age of a car on the road was 12 years.
hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
But still, electric cars work, and work well. I have an EV with over 400 miles of range. It may be heavy but that doesn't affect me much in my day-to-day. But electric propulsion really doesn't work well for tons of air travel cases, and a battery like this really would be transformative for those uses - that's how I interpreted GP's comment.
- shortcake27 4y ago
  Sure, it works, but their point is that the savings would be near exponential. Eg, a battery with similar characteristics but double the density might allow you to reduce the size of the battery by something like 70% while keeping the same amount of range. So the amount of resources required is greatly reduced. Considering it's only a matter of years before ICEs are flat out banned in most countries, figuring out more efficient ways to use resources for vehicles is pretty important.
  - magnuspaaske 4y ago
    With electric cars you're mostly looking at a cost curve at this point. The cars have proven they're competitive in a range of market segments and that advantage will be built out in the coming years, either from optimising the current battery tech or inventing new stuff. This is true for most overland transportation as we're also seeing batteries in trucks, trains, busses and trams. This is not true for planes and helicopters yet. We're still not at the point where the planes carrying the bulk of passengers (100-200 seats, 1000-4000 km) can be electrified, even with no budget constraints. We're starting to see concepts for smaller planes and that's obviously a good start but there's still some ways to go – better batteries could make a big difference here as it might allow electrification of planes that wouldn't previously been possible. After that we obviously still need to get the costs down, but that generally comes with scaling.
- trogdor 4y ago
  >I have an EV with over 400 miles of range. Which one? What is your actual overall average Wh/mile vs. your car’s rated efficiency? I own a Model S Plaid. Its rated range is nominally 396 miles, but that’s never gonna happen in real life. (No one buys a Plaid to drive in Chill mode…)
  - rgmerk 4y ago
    Curious. Why a Model S Plaid? Sure, it’s a rocketship in a straight line, but there are reportedly lots of other cars (even electric ones) that are much more fun to drive on a twisty road.
bilsbie 4y ago
And when you factor in not being able to charge to 100% and charging stations being far apart, the current range really isn’t all that sufficient.
- rootusrootus 4y ago
  LFPs are intended to routinely charge to 100%, and that's where EV batteries are headed in the next few years. I'm not sure what fraction of EVs sold in the US today use LFP, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's relatively high, maybe 1/4, and it's going to go up. LFP comes with a small weight penalty (for now) but the safety profile and longevity are superior.

rgmerk 4y ago

Yes, that's all true. Lithium-air EVs could be significantly lighter and cheaper than current-generation EVs. But even if that doesn't happen EVs are going to represent the majority of new cars sold in the quite near future.

jtc331 4y ago
“Quite the near future” means what to you? 2030? 2035? 2040?
- rgmerk 4y ago
  The IEA, hardly the most adventurous of forecasters, guesses that, globally, 60% of new cars will be EVs by 2030.
ComputerGuru 4y ago
Just bear in mind that, as of a couple of years ago, the average age of a car on the road was 12 years.

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago

But still, electric cars work, and work well. I have an EV with over 400 miles of range. It may be heavy but that doesn't affect me much in my day-to-day. But electric propulsion really doesn't work well for tons of air travel cases, and a battery like this really would be transformative for those uses - that's how I interpreted GP's comment.

shortcake27 4y ago
Sure, it works, but their point is that the savings would be near exponential. Eg, a battery with similar characteristics but double the density might allow you to reduce the size of the battery by something like 70% while keeping the same amount of range. So the amount of resources required is greatly reduced. Considering it's only a matter of years before ICEs are flat out banned in most countries, figuring out more efficient ways to use resources for vehicles is pretty important.
- magnuspaaske 4y ago
  With electric cars you're mostly looking at a cost curve at this point. The cars have proven they're competitive in a range of market segments and that advantage will be built out in the coming years, either from optimising the current battery tech or inventing new stuff. This is true for most overland transportation as we're also seeing batteries in trucks, trains, busses and trams. This is not true for planes and helicopters yet. We're still not at the point where the planes carrying the bulk of passengers (100-200 seats, 1000-4000 km) can be electrified, even with no budget constraints. We're starting to see concepts for smaller planes and that's obviously a good start but there's still some ways to go – better batteries could make a big difference here as it might allow electrification of planes that wouldn't previously been possible. After that we obviously still need to get the costs down, but that generally comes with scaling.
trogdor 4y ago
>I have an EV with over 400 miles of range. Which one? What is your actual overall average Wh/mile vs. your car’s rated efficiency? I own a Model S Plaid. Its rated range is nominally 396 miles, but that’s never gonna happen in real life. (No one buys a Plaid to drive in Chill mode…)
- rgmerk 4y ago
  Curious. Why a Model S Plaid? Sure, it’s a rocketship in a straight line, but there are reportedly lots of other cars (even electric ones) that are much more fun to drive on a twisty road.

bilsbie 4y ago

And when you factor in not being able to charge to 100% and charging stations being far apart, the current range really isn’t all that sufficient.

rootusrootus 4y ago
LFPs are intended to routinely charge to 100%, and that's where EV batteries are headed in the next few years. I'm not sure what fraction of EVs sold in the US today use LFP, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's relatively high, maybe 1/4, and it's going to go up. LFP comes with a small weight penalty (for now) but the safety profile and longevity are superior.