That is a variation of a Benjamin Franklin quote about three people being able to keep a secret if two are dead. There are similar principles in military scien

That is a variation of a Benjamin Franklin quote about three people being able to keep a secret if two are dead. There are similar principles in military science about limited sizes of surprise attacks because logistically at some point it becomes completely obvious to anybody with working eyes or ears if say, the PRC relocated the entirety of their army off the shore of Hong Kong. Let alone the cumulative probabilities of human failures including in blackmail and bribery or how quickly the finances would add up in paying off people noticing you paying them off, and then people who notice the abnormal flow of currency. There is no guarantee in these principles in the same way there is no guarantee that WWI wouldn't happen due to the interconnectedness of the European countries and how much they would have to lose. They were still right about the latter being an unmitigated disaster, as the unprestigious "backwater hicks who barely count as civilized", the US and the USSR became two world leading superpowers instead of the other leading empires. But that same "Unlikely because would be incredibly stupid and lead to losing a lot." level of guarantee applies to nuclear deterrence.