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Thanks for doing that. I suspected those answers were very different than the 8.3, which I'm guessing must have been around the 50th percentile. The way the ini

Thanks for doing that. I suspected those answers were very different than the 8.3, which I'm guessing must have been around the 50th percentile. The way the initial question was asked, it seemed to suggest you had a pretty high probability of all four after 8.3, which isn't true.

travisjungroth 4y ago
It hinges on the "expect" in how "much do you expect to pay?". You can think of it like "expected value", where you're doing a comparison. Those meals are $8 each. If someone says they'll give you $80 for a set, this would be a profitable endeavor. On average, you'd expect to spend $66.67 (8.33*8) to get a collection. If you think of it like "setting expectations", it's not so good. If a mafia boss told you he was expecting you to get all four toys for his daughter, you're not going to place an order for nine meals and walk in there with 71% confidence. I might show up with 59 of them, which is the p99.9999 value.