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For now. Fundamental setup is worse than the 2000s bubble in many ways (for different reasons). But even a 30% drop would only take us back a few years this ti

For now. Fundamental setup is worse than the 2000s bubble in many ways (for different reasons). But even a 30% drop would only take us back a few years this time, so there is a nice cushion, yes. Many still believe the various news pieces about a housing shortage, just as most people in 2005 were totally complacent. Only time will tell, but worth revisiting in 3-4 years

jeffbee 4y ago
> Many still believe the various news pieces about a housing shortage Have you got a solid argument against this? Just the demographics are pretty stark. Millenials are the largest generation ever and we simply did not build any houses for them.
- adam_arthur 4y ago
  Housing units per household is 1.1:1.0, same as it was in year 2000. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TTLHH https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TTLHH https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ETOTALUSQ176N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ETOTALUSQ176N The millenial "hump" you're referencing just recently passed the average age for a first-time homebuyer. Demographics move strongly against housing demand going forward (without change in immigration policy). https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj71OkndsZk6AEHrAxk4KablrkAXC0LGxcVUS_Jv2ghA25HIX1D9F67VI1JpCLKxCa1UtHB5v9qbbsVyYO1b7yEjLhEA3xTiz1cVujUSWTrr8nYLJazR84q3cS1N05lqwNoH1VIQNIDM347rA4PBzLPLhQmkh-StZC3rA9zfzYx0oGwGUSbZw/s1085/PopulationAge2021.PNG https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj... We are at an all time high in units under construction: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCONTNSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCONTNSA The amount of overbuilding in 2000s compensates for underbuilding in 2010's. The housing shortage is a complete myth... the only thing there was a shortage of was active listings. There is no structural shortage that is provable by any hard number. There's a lot more to say regarding housing market fundamentals, but just answering your question directly
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - jeffbee 4y ago
    You’re reading both of those key statistics backwards. Household formation is the result of housing supply. The most noticeable outcome of the shortage is the suppression of new household formation. The fact that the homes per household ratio is similar to what it was in 2000, when the crisis was already well underway, doesn’t prove that we have enough homes. The other stat should be read as an all-time low in construction completion. Houses under construction is a terrible thing to celebrate. They started more than they could finish with the labor and materials available. Not great.
    - adam_arthur 4y ago
      Housing units/person is roughly the same as year 2000 too. Slightly lower, nothing that can possibly be asserted as a shortage. (which you had in your previous comment, but deleted for some reason) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=j9kB https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=j9kB Demographics matter a lot, yes, not just population. 5 year olds don't buy houses. Elderly dying sell their houses. But even using that number shows no shortage. Back up your assertions with facts or don't participate at all please. This is how misinformation about a housing shortage has spread so virally. I've already engaged in the same circuitous conversation 100 times though, not worth engaging again. Check back in 5 years and we'll see what happened
  - kemotep 4y ago
    For your first figure to work out, as there being more than enough housing, requires that any one unit of housing is equivalent to any other one and does not account for what an acceptable vacancy rate to facilitate moves would be in specific markets. An available unit in Kansas does not help the family in California.
  - beiller 4y ago
    Yes good hard numbers. The problem is many still consider it a shortage because they think that hoarding their starter home when they've moved on to home 2, and 3, and so on means a shortage still. The hoarding has in fact led to a shortage of homes available to buy. Why would they sell the accumulated properties when they are ramping up in value significantly each year, and only recently took a almost insignificant claw-back. If they all just continue the seller's strike, they can hold on to the value. We need to increase the holding cost of vacant properties significantly I believe to make a dent in actual affordability.

jeffbee 4y ago

> Many still believe the various news pieces about a housing shortage Have you got a solid argument against this? Just the demographics are pretty stark. Millenials are the largest generation ever and we simply did not build any houses for them.

adam_arthur 4y ago
Housing units per household is 1.1:1.0, same as it was in year 2000. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TTLHH https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TTLHH https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ETOTALUSQ176N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ETOTALUSQ176N The millenial "hump" you're referencing just recently passed the average age for a first-time homebuyer. Demographics move strongly against housing demand going forward (without change in immigration policy). https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj71OkndsZk6AEHrAxk4KablrkAXC0LGxcVUS_Jv2ghA25HIX1D9F67VI1JpCLKxCa1UtHB5v9qbbsVyYO1b7yEjLhEA3xTiz1cVujUSWTrr8nYLJazR84q3cS1N05lqwNoH1VIQNIDM347rA4PBzLPLhQmkh-StZC3rA9zfzYx0oGwGUSbZw/s1085/PopulationAge2021.PNG https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj... We are at an all time high in units under construction: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCONTNSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCONTNSA The amount of overbuilding in 2000s compensates for underbuilding in 2010's. The housing shortage is a complete myth... the only thing there was a shortage of was active listings. There is no structural shortage that is provable by any hard number. There's a lot more to say regarding housing market fundamentals, but just answering your question directly
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- jeffbee 4y ago
  You’re reading both of those key statistics backwards. Household formation is the result of housing supply. The most noticeable outcome of the shortage is the suppression of new household formation. The fact that the homes per household ratio is similar to what it was in 2000, when the crisis was already well underway, doesn’t prove that we have enough homes. The other stat should be read as an all-time low in construction completion. Houses under construction is a terrible thing to celebrate. They started more than they could finish with the labor and materials available. Not great.
  - adam_arthur 4y ago
    Housing units/person is roughly the same as year 2000 too. Slightly lower, nothing that can possibly be asserted as a shortage. (which you had in your previous comment, but deleted for some reason) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=j9kB https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=j9kB Demographics matter a lot, yes, not just population. 5 year olds don't buy houses. Elderly dying sell their houses. But even using that number shows no shortage. Back up your assertions with facts or don't participate at all please. This is how misinformation about a housing shortage has spread so virally. I've already engaged in the same circuitous conversation 100 times though, not worth engaging again. Check back in 5 years and we'll see what happened
- kemotep 4y ago
  For your first figure to work out, as there being more than enough housing, requires that any one unit of housing is equivalent to any other one and does not account for what an acceptable vacancy rate to facilitate moves would be in specific markets. An available unit in Kansas does not help the family in California.
- beiller 4y ago
  Yes good hard numbers. The problem is many still consider it a shortage because they think that hoarding their starter home when they've moved on to home 2, and 3, and so on means a shortage still. The hoarding has in fact led to a shortage of homes available to buy. Why would they sell the accumulated properties when they are ramping up in value significantly each year, and only recently took a almost insignificant claw-back. If they all just continue the seller's strike, they can hold on to the value. We need to increase the holding cost of vacant properties significantly I believe to make a dent in actual affordability.