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We're almost at 60 Million dead poultry in the US from H5N1 since Jan '22. Even before that during covid, there were super long periods of unprofitability for

We're almost at 60 Million dead poultry in the US from H5N1 since Jan '22. Even before that during covid, there were super long periods of unprofitability for raising turkey to the point that you couldn't even buy whole turkeys in most of the southeastern US for over 10 months. Monopolies are a problem but certainly not the cause of this one.

ProbablyRyaan 4y ago
> We're almost at 60 Million dead poultry in the US from H5N1 since Jan '22. Wouldn't we see an increase (equal or more) in chicken meat prices as well? If the info is correct... 2020-2023 chicken meat is ~22% higher: https://www.in2013dollars.com/Chicken/price-inflation/2020-to-2023?amount=1.85 https://www.in2013dollars.com/Chicken/price-inflation/2020-t... 2020-2023 eggs are ~91% higher: https://www.in2013dollars.com/Eggs/price-inflation/2020-to-2023?amount=4.82 https://www.in2013dollars.com/Eggs/price-inflation/2020-to-2...
- HDThoreaun 4y ago
  Meat chickens and egg chickens are not the same. Egg chickens take longer to reach productive age, so the market finds it harder to react to supply shocks.
  - jkestner 4y ago
    At best, layers take 10 more weeks to produce. The egg price spiked almost a year ago. Focusing on meat vs egg chickens is beside the point. Cal-Maine’s profit has skyrocketed, even as prices on other things have come back down, so clearly they’re not merely passing their expenses on to the consumer. Read the link at top.
    - busterarm 4y ago
      Cory Doctorow is no expert on the US egg/chicken industry. He's writing political opinion pieces here. Occasionally he writes science fiction. He also has big problems with hyperbole in his work. The egg price spiked almost a year ago because we've been dealing with H5N1 since over a year ago and it has only gotten worse since.
      - p0pcult 4y ago
        You're just wrong. https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/record-breaking-egg-profits-prompt-accusation-of-price-gouging https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/record-breaking-eg...
        busterarm 4y ago
        An accusation brought to the FTC by an organization whose founding mission statement is that all of the problems in the farm industry are because of monopolistic corporations. Only a single member of their board/staff even owns a farm. It's literally their mission to make this claim.
        p0pcult 4y ago
        Instead of being a parrot and squawking, read the article. The source for the data is Cal-Maine's own financial statements.
        busterarm 4y ago
        Yes, there are some facts, but you should learn the difference between opinions and conclusions.
pixl97 4y ago
I mean, 60 million sounds like a big number, but it seems that the average number of chickens slaughtered per day in the US is somewhere around 24 million birds. I think you may underestimate the scale of poultry slaughter in the US.
- tristor 4y ago
  Those are culls, not slaughters. They aren't the same thing. You cannot sell culled chickens for food, they are culled due to disease and are considered biohazard, because they can infect other parts of the flock or other flocks, and in the case of bird flu are also infectious to humans. Generally, the USDA requires a full cull of flocks if any birds are affected. My sister is into urban chickens and bird flu is very much not a joke, and trying to prevent it is hard because humans can carry it and infect chickens and chickens can infect humans. Also, the chicken you eat and the chicken that lays eggs aren't even the same breed at industrial scale. Also, I know that many regulations, including USDA regulations, are a bit of a joke in the US, but bird flu is one thing they very much do not fuck around on. The loss of those 60 millions birds is a straight economic loss that's non-recoverable for those egg producers.
  - p0pcult 4y ago
    None of this disproves the point that the parent poster is making. 60MM = 2.5 daily culls. that's not a lot, in context. Now, if you had different numbers, that would be a thing worth discussing.
    - tristor 4y ago
      "Also, the chicken you eat and the chicken that lays eggs aren't even the same breed at industrial scale." That, and the numbers from slaughters are chickens being slaughtered for food. Other cull counts are related to male chicks being culled in prepping for egg laying, which is also not relevant. These are full adult flocks of active egg-layers being culled. It has SIGNIFICANT impact on egg production.

ProbablyRyaan 4y ago

> We're almost at 60 Million dead poultry in the US from H5N1 since Jan '22. Wouldn't we see an increase (equal or more) in chicken meat prices as well? If the info is correct... 2020-2023 chicken meat is ~22% higher: https://www.in2013dollars.com/Chicken/price-inflation/2020-to-2023?amount=1.85 https://www.in2013dollars.com/Chicken/price-inflation/2020-t... 2020-2023 eggs are ~91% higher: https://www.in2013dollars.com/Eggs/price-inflation/2020-to-2023?amount=4.82 https://www.in2013dollars.com/Eggs/price-inflation/2020-to-2...

HDThoreaun 4y ago
Meat chickens and egg chickens are not the same. Egg chickens take longer to reach productive age, so the market finds it harder to react to supply shocks.
- jkestner 4y ago
  At best, layers take 10 more weeks to produce. The egg price spiked almost a year ago. Focusing on meat vs egg chickens is beside the point. Cal-Maine’s profit has skyrocketed, even as prices on other things have come back down, so clearly they’re not merely passing their expenses on to the consumer. Read the link at top.
  - busterarm 4y ago
    Cory Doctorow is no expert on the US egg/chicken industry. He's writing political opinion pieces here. Occasionally he writes science fiction. He also has big problems with hyperbole in his work. The egg price spiked almost a year ago because we've been dealing with H5N1 since over a year ago and it has only gotten worse since.
    - p0pcult 4y ago
      You're just wrong. https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/record-breaking-egg-profits-prompt-accusation-of-price-gouging https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/record-breaking-eg...
      - busterarm 4y ago
        An accusation brought to the FTC by an organization whose founding mission statement is that all of the problems in the farm industry are because of monopolistic corporations. Only a single member of their board/staff even owns a farm. It's literally their mission to make this claim.
        p0pcult 4y ago
        Instead of being a parrot and squawking, read the article. The source for the data is Cal-Maine's own financial statements.
        busterarm 4y ago
        Yes, there are some facts, but you should learn the difference between opinions and conclusions.

pixl97 4y ago

I mean, 60 million sounds like a big number, but it seems that the average number of chickens slaughtered per day in the US is somewhere around 24 million birds. I think you may underestimate the scale of poultry slaughter in the US.

tristor 4y ago
Those are culls, not slaughters. They aren't the same thing. You cannot sell culled chickens for food, they are culled due to disease and are considered biohazard, because they can infect other parts of the flock or other flocks, and in the case of bird flu are also infectious to humans. Generally, the USDA requires a full cull of flocks if any birds are affected. My sister is into urban chickens and bird flu is very much not a joke, and trying to prevent it is hard because humans can carry it and infect chickens and chickens can infect humans. Also, the chicken you eat and the chicken that lays eggs aren't even the same breed at industrial scale. Also, I know that many regulations, including USDA regulations, are a bit of a joke in the US, but bird flu is one thing they very much do not fuck around on. The loss of those 60 millions birds is a straight economic loss that's non-recoverable for those egg producers.
- p0pcult 4y ago
  None of this disproves the point that the parent poster is making. 60MM = 2.5 daily culls. that's not a lot, in context. Now, if you had different numbers, that would be a thing worth discussing.
  - tristor 4y ago
    "Also, the chicken you eat and the chicken that lays eggs aren't even the same breed at industrial scale." That, and the numbers from slaughters are chickens being slaughtered for food. Other cull counts are related to male chicks being culled in prepping for egg laying, which is also not relevant. These are full adult flocks of active egg-layers being culled. It has SIGNIFICANT impact on egg production.