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The US government has extremely strong incentives to report inflation as low as possible, so it's likely less about "thinking" we're at negative and more that t
by 93po 4y ago
The US government has extremely strong incentives to report inflation as low as possible, so it's likely less about "thinking" we're at negative and more that they pick and choose data to show it intentionally.
- jjeaff 4y agoThey have very specific baskets of goods and methodologies that they publish details on when changed. And it is done by an independent groups of government employees with lots of eyes, both public and private looking at every detail of what they do. I don't think they are simply cherry picking data.
- 93po 4y agoThere are a ton of issues with the official CPI numbers that none of this accounts for and even the BLS admits to in a limited extent. It doesn't account for people buying less expensive substitutes when items get expensive, it only includes "staples" despite consumers potentially spend a ton on newer items, it doesn't account for quality changes of items, it has an undue weight on urban areas, doesn't account for shrinkflation or other hidden forms of inflation, and lots of others. The BLS isn't independent. The commissioner is hand picked by the senate, and it's currently someone who's very deeply rooted in establishment politics and has close connections to the Koch family, the fossil fuel industry, and Trump.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- pishpash 4y agoShrinkflation is captured: https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-12/measuring-shrinkflation-and-its-impact-on-inflation.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-12/measuring-shrinkflati...
- eigen 4y ago> It doesn't account for people buying less expensive substitutes when items get expensive as mentioned in the chained CPI FAQ, "The C-CPI-U employs a formula that reflects the effect of substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices." https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/chained-cpi-questions-and-answers.htm https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/chained-cpi-que...
- p_j_w 4y agoDo you have any evidence that the methods to calculate inflation have changed at any point in the Biden administration to show negative inflation right now or are you just heavily implying that it's probably happening without any such evidence?
- Thetawaves 4y agoIn September of last year, the frequency of goods selection for calculating CPI changed from every 2 years to every year. The change came into effect in January 2023. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2022/methodology-changes-2022.htm https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2022/methodology-changes-202...
- p_j_w 4y agoThat is not evidence of what GP is talking about.
- Thetawaves 4y agoHow is it not?