12 ms·

I bet the government's inflation tracker is also connected to walmart links. No wonder the gov things we're at negative inflation.

mtoner23 4y ago
lol, they have armies of statisticians working on this stuff. its probably better than this person's side project website scraper.
- NDizzle 4y ago
  I wish I could go back in time about 40 years, where I had the same faith in government that you have currently. (I'm age 43 at the moment)
  - mtoner23 4y ago
    No you dont, you obviously like not trusting the government. it makes you feel smarter and better than a big organization. But your internet research isnt as good as 1000 econ grads working at the BLS and it will never be.
  - Firmwarrior 4y ago
    The government is definitely full of shit, but historical inflation matches their published numbers pretty well over time. I compared the Big Mac index over the last couple decades, and it fit pretty well I think most of the extra inflation is going into stocks and housing, and the government's cherry picking hides those factors. The end result is that people can't retire and can't comfortably afford houses, which is why everything sucks now
  - flyingcircus3 4y ago
    [flagged]
    - mrguyorama 4y ago
      You're forgetting all the steps about purposely cutting, gutting, kneecapping, etc important government functions when voted in and then pointing around while saying "look how bad government is at doing things!"
      - gnulinux 4y ago
        This is the standard conservative playbook, it even has a name: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast
    - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
      > The end result is just a bunch of curmudgeons who hate the government Unless it's army, police, prisons, and drug prosecutions. You know the arms of the government that are actually danegrous and kill people. Like at least can you be consistent.
    - ThunderSizzle 4y ago
      > Equate others' continued faith in said government with naivety To be fair, most people's trust/reliance in the Federal government is based out of naivity or lack of knowledge. Considering most news today is just regurgitating government press conference talking points, it's not surprising most people's knowledge stops at naivity.
      - dd36 4y ago
        Most news? Government press conferences? What?
        ThunderSizzle 4y ago
        Yes, most news on many topics like inflation reports, job numbers, etc. is just news reporters restating exactly what the government official says. This was very apparent under Covid when news agencies just repeated what was said with their own bias spin thrown on it. Most attempts at independent journalism that started with skepticsm was instantly lambasted as fake news or misinformation.
93po 4y ago
The US government has extremely strong incentives to report inflation as low as possible, so it's likely less about "thinking" we're at negative and more that they pick and choose data to show it intentionally.
- jjeaff 4y ago
  They have very specific baskets of goods and methodologies that they publish details on when changed. And it is done by an independent groups of government employees with lots of eyes, both public and private looking at every detail of what they do. I don't think they are simply cherry picking data.
  - 93po 4y ago
    There are a ton of issues with the official CPI numbers that none of this accounts for and even the BLS admits to in a limited extent. It doesn't account for people buying less expensive substitutes when items get expensive, it only includes "staples" despite consumers potentially spend a ton on newer items, it doesn't account for quality changes of items, it has an undue weight on urban areas, doesn't account for shrinkflation or other hidden forms of inflation, and lots of others. The BLS isn't independent. The commissioner is hand picked by the senate, and it's currently someone who's very deeply rooted in establishment politics and has close connections to the Koch family, the fossil fuel industry, and Trump.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - pishpash 4y ago
      Shrinkflation is captured: https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-12/measuring-shrinkflation-and-its-impact-on-inflation.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-12/measuring-shrinkflati...
    - eigen 4y ago
      > It doesn't account for people buying less expensive substitutes when items get expensive as mentioned in the chained CPI FAQ, "The C-CPI-U employs a formula that reflects the effect of substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices." https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/chained-cpi-questions-and-answers.htm https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/chained-cpi-que...
moremetadata 4y ago
Major employers can manipulate govt's in lots of ways like laying off staff to push up the unemployment figures, so if you get a Govt which wants to raise standards for the populations, major employers can make that difficult. The prime objective of a business is to make profit, everything else is secondary.
- swores 4y ago
  I agree with your second paragraph, but I'm failing to understand why a company would want to manipulate government unemployment figures (and indeed, surely if they actually lay off staff then they're not manipulating the reporting/figures, they're changing the reality which is then reflected in the figures)?
  - moremetadata 4y ago
    I saw a stock market company in the UK do this in the 90's, mostly through natural wastage and not replacing the position, a total ban on recruitment except essential jobs, whilst blaming the new govt. Businesses need ways to control govt for their own means, just look at the legislation, regulations and business practices that exists and does not exist in one country and not another. The US Supreme Court case Gonzalez v. Google, even some of the US Judges have said congress need to be addressing this, but these politicians are all bought and paid for, except perhaps Bernie Sanders. Perhaps this is also why US tech stock is laying off big, they know the game is up and changes are a foot. Look at parts of the German Autobahn where its got no speed limit, do you think the German Car manufacturers had a little bit of a say in keeping things unchanged since 1934?
    - philipwhiuk 4y ago
      This reads like it was written by a Markov chain.
- Red_Leaves_Flyy 4y ago
  >The prime objective of a business is to make profit, everything else is secondary. can·cer /ˈkansər/ Learn to pronounce noun 1. a disease caused by an uncontrolled division of abnormal cells in a part of the body. "he's got cancer" 2. a practice or phenomenon perceived to be evil or destructive and hard to contain or eradicate. "gambling is a cancer sweeping across the nation"

mtoner23 4y ago

lol, they have armies of statisticians working on this stuff. its probably better than this person's side project website scraper.

NDizzle 4y ago
I wish I could go back in time about 40 years, where I had the same faith in government that you have currently. (I'm age 43 at the moment)
- mtoner23 4y ago
  No you dont, you obviously like not trusting the government. it makes you feel smarter and better than a big organization. But your internet research isnt as good as 1000 econ grads working at the BLS and it will never be.
- Firmwarrior 4y ago
  The government is definitely full of shit, but historical inflation matches their published numbers pretty well over time. I compared the Big Mac index over the last couple decades, and it fit pretty well I think most of the extra inflation is going into stocks and housing, and the government's cherry picking hides those factors. The end result is that people can't retire and can't comfortably afford houses, which is why everything sucks now
- flyingcircus3 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - mrguyorama 4y ago
    You're forgetting all the steps about purposely cutting, gutting, kneecapping, etc important government functions when voted in and then pointing around while saying "look how bad government is at doing things!"
    - gnulinux 4y ago
      This is the standard conservative playbook, it even has a name: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast
  - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
    > The end result is just a bunch of curmudgeons who hate the government Unless it's army, police, prisons, and drug prosecutions. You know the arms of the government that are actually danegrous and kill people. Like at least can you be consistent.
  - ThunderSizzle 4y ago
    > Equate others' continued faith in said government with naivety To be fair, most people's trust/reliance in the Federal government is based out of naivity or lack of knowledge. Considering most news today is just regurgitating government press conference talking points, it's not surprising most people's knowledge stops at naivity.
    - dd36 4y ago
      Most news? Government press conferences? What?
      - ThunderSizzle 4y ago
        Yes, most news on many topics like inflation reports, job numbers, etc. is just news reporters restating exactly what the government official says. This was very apparent under Covid when news agencies just repeated what was said with their own bias spin thrown on it. Most attempts at independent journalism that started with skepticsm was instantly lambasted as fake news or misinformation.

93po 4y ago

The US government has extremely strong incentives to report inflation as low as possible, so it's likely less about "thinking" we're at negative and more that they pick and choose data to show it intentionally.

jjeaff 4y ago
They have very specific baskets of goods and methodologies that they publish details on when changed. And it is done by an independent groups of government employees with lots of eyes, both public and private looking at every detail of what they do. I don't think they are simply cherry picking data.
- 93po 4y ago
  There are a ton of issues with the official CPI numbers that none of this accounts for and even the BLS admits to in a limited extent. It doesn't account for people buying less expensive substitutes when items get expensive, it only includes "staples" despite consumers potentially spend a ton on newer items, it doesn't account for quality changes of items, it has an undue weight on urban areas, doesn't account for shrinkflation or other hidden forms of inflation, and lots of others. The BLS isn't independent. The commissioner is hand picked by the senate, and it's currently someone who's very deeply rooted in establishment politics and has close connections to the Koch family, the fossil fuel industry, and Trump.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - pishpash 4y ago
    Shrinkflation is captured: https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-12/measuring-shrinkflation-and-its-impact-on-inflation.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-12/measuring-shrinkflati...
  - eigen 4y ago
    > It doesn't account for people buying less expensive substitutes when items get expensive as mentioned in the chained CPI FAQ, "The C-CPI-U employs a formula that reflects the effect of substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices." https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/chained-cpi-questions-and-answers.htm https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/chained-cpi-que...

moremetadata 4y ago

Major employers can manipulate govt's in lots of ways like laying off staff to push up the unemployment figures, so if you get a Govt which wants to raise standards for the populations, major employers can make that difficult. The prime objective of a business is to make profit, everything else is secondary.

swores 4y ago
I agree with your second paragraph, but I'm failing to understand why a company would want to manipulate government unemployment figures (and indeed, surely if they actually lay off staff then they're not manipulating the reporting/figures, they're changing the reality which is then reflected in the figures)?
- moremetadata 4y ago
  I saw a stock market company in the UK do this in the 90's, mostly through natural wastage and not replacing the position, a total ban on recruitment except essential jobs, whilst blaming the new govt. Businesses need ways to control govt for their own means, just look at the legislation, regulations and business practices that exists and does not exist in one country and not another. The US Supreme Court case Gonzalez v. Google, even some of the US Judges have said congress need to be addressing this, but these politicians are all bought and paid for, except perhaps Bernie Sanders. Perhaps this is also why US tech stock is laying off big, they know the game is up and changes are a foot. Look at parts of the German Autobahn where its got no speed limit, do you think the German Car manufacturers had a little bit of a say in keeping things unchanged since 1934?
  - philipwhiuk 4y ago
    This reads like it was written by a Markov chain.
Red_Leaves_Flyy 4y ago
>The prime objective of a business is to make profit, everything else is secondary. can·cer /ˈkansər/ Learn to pronounce noun 1. a disease caused by an uncontrolled division of abnormal cells in a part of the body. "he's got cancer" 2. a practice or phenomenon perceived to be evil or destructive and hard to contain or eradicate. "gambling is a cancer sweeping across the nation"