3 ms·
Counterfactual hypotheses are untestable and are of little interest other than for social banter and light conversation. "If only we had done this, this might
by photochemsyn 4y ago
Counterfactual hypotheses are untestable and are of little interest other than for social banter and light conversation. "If only we had done this, this might have happened..."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterfactual_thinking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterfactual_thinking
Reading the tea leaves and forecasting the future has never been a very successful enterprise, and doing so in hindsight isn't much better. This behavioral tendency was explained by Frank Herbert, among others:
> "Deep in the human unconscious is a pervasive need for a logical universe that makes sense. But the real universe is always one step beyond logic." ― Dune
- ineedasername 4y agoI think it’s useful to revisit things with the benefit of hindsight to better understand why thinks happened a certain way and how they might have played out differently. But I also completely agree that they offer no proof of alternative outcomes and the exercise should be limited. Something like the viral adoption of a language for ML has too many complex psychosocial factors for a hot take counterfactual sound bite. And twitter allows for just enough space to stake a claim on some rhetorical ground, not much left to explore the detail required.
- LargoLasskhyfv 4y agoThat may be the case. But there is also tunnel vision and Planck's principle. IOW: Ignoring history makes it harder to analyze what's wrong, and why that came to be. Marching on mindlessly, like a truly indoctrinated, mindless soldier. Because lack of situational awareness, overview.