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Twitter is indeed going great [0]. [0] https://twitterisgoinggreat.com/ https://twitterisgoinggreat.com/

carabiner 4y ago
This reminds me of those "X president is doing great/horribly" bullet lists. It works because with any sufficiently huge system, you can cherry-pick points to reflect your desired viewpoint. The fact is, the mass exodus from twitter hasn't materialized. It's still the primary medium of discourse for all of the major actors who used it before. Musk has maintained 95% of functionality while drastically reducing costs. When the dust settles, MBA's will be studying this for decades. Another list idea: compile all of the "twitter will die in a week if you mess with this system" tweets from senior twitter engineers that Musk fired a few months ago.
- spiderfarmer 4y ago
  > the mass exodus from twitter hasn't materialized I disagree. Everyone I deemed worth following on Twitter is now on Mastodon. Over there it's like Twitter's early days. It's growing and I think it will continue to do so until it reaches mass adoption.
  - yowzadave 4y ago
    My anecdotal experience suggests that some number of journalists and tech people have switched to Mastodon. Almost zero of the normal funny people that I followed on Twitter have switched. Which is unfortunate--they were the posters I enjoyed most.
    - spiderfarmer 4y ago
      In The Netherlands we have an expression along the lines of "when one sheep crosses the dam more will follow". Funny people want an audience, once they're convinced they can get that at Mastodon, they too will make the jump.
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- silentsanctuary 4y ago
  > Musk has maintained 95% of functionality while drastically reducing costs. It's unclear if your intention was to frame this as a "genius business outcome" but this is really a fairly expected outcome given the business parameters. Outside of adages like "the last 10% of the work takes 90% of the resources", and "to add another 9 of reliability, multiply your budget by 10", you can also intuit this result pretty easily just from your own experience (if you have a background in the field). If you proposed a project of "build Twitter, but multi-hour downtime is acceptable, key features like logging in with 2FA breaking is acceptable, complying with local laws and paying bills is optional, etc" then you'll find the necessary budget will be much smaller than otherwise.
  - concordDance 4y ago
    Haven't experienced a multi hour downtime yet myself...
localplume 4y ago
Honestly any kind of obsession with Musk is weird, and this is included. What happened to the exodus of people leaving Twitter for Mastodon saying Twitter's collapse was imminent? I've seen people coming back after making such a dramatic event of it. I've been using Twitter throughout all of this and honestly nothing has actually changed. It's just so weird people so obsessed with Musk, even hating him with such fervor and putting him under this weird hyper scrutiny.
- jeromegv 4y ago
  Depends on your niche, in the people I follow, majority of the big accounts did move to Mastodon and my feed was replaced by a bunch of garbage ads (as I was no longer able to use my 3rd party app). So yes, I did move to Mastodon as well. I understand it's not everywhere, but Mastodon engagement is surprisingly very high
concordDance 4y ago
I'd really like to see some people put their money where their mouth is and place some metacalculus bets. Things like whether twitters losses in 2023 will be higher or lower than 2022. Whether user numbers will go up or down. Whether revenue will go up or down. Number of minutes of outages. Etc Personally I'd bet on less losses, revenue slightly down (10% ish) and user numbers approximately the same this year compared to last. Longer term I think the loss of verified status for journalists will stop it being a big source for their news stories, which will decrease its popularity. But that's next year at the earliest.
- rsynnott 4y ago
  It's not a public company anymore, so there would be no way to settle the bet.

This reminds me of those "X president is doing great/horribly" bullet lists. It works because with any sufficiently huge system, you can cherry-pick points to reflect your desired viewpoint. The fact is, the mass exodus from twitter hasn't materialized. It's still the primary medium of discourse for all of the major actors who used it before. Musk has maintained 95% of functionality while drastically reducing costs. When the dust settles, MBA's will be studying this for decades. Another list idea: compile all of the "twitter will die in a week if you mess with this system" tweets from senior twitter engineers that Musk fired a few months ago.

spiderfarmer 4y ago
> the mass exodus from twitter hasn't materialized I disagree. Everyone I deemed worth following on Twitter is now on Mastodon. Over there it's like Twitter's early days. It's growing and I think it will continue to do so until it reaches mass adoption.
- yowzadave 4y ago
  My anecdotal experience suggests that some number of journalists and tech people have switched to Mastodon. Almost zero of the normal funny people that I followed on Twitter have switched. Which is unfortunate--they were the posters I enjoyed most.
  - spiderfarmer 4y ago
    In The Netherlands we have an expression along the lines of "when one sheep crosses the dam more will follow". Funny people want an audience, once they're convinced they can get that at Mastodon, they too will make the jump.
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silentsanctuary 4y ago
> Musk has maintained 95% of functionality while drastically reducing costs. It's unclear if your intention was to frame this as a "genius business outcome" but this is really a fairly expected outcome given the business parameters. Outside of adages like "the last 10% of the work takes 90% of the resources", and "to add another 9 of reliability, multiply your budget by 10", you can also intuit this result pretty easily just from your own experience (if you have a background in the field). If you proposed a project of "build Twitter, but multi-hour downtime is acceptable, key features like logging in with 2FA breaking is acceptable, complying with local laws and paying bills is optional, etc" then you'll find the necessary budget will be much smaller than otherwise.
- concordDance 4y ago
  Haven't experienced a multi hour downtime yet myself...

localplume 4y ago

Honestly any kind of obsession with Musk is weird, and this is included. What happened to the exodus of people leaving Twitter for Mastodon saying Twitter's collapse was imminent? I've seen people coming back after making such a dramatic event of it. I've been using Twitter throughout all of this and honestly nothing has actually changed. It's just so weird people so obsessed with Musk, even hating him with such fervor and putting him under this weird hyper scrutiny.

jeromegv 4y ago
Depends on your niche, in the people I follow, majority of the big accounts did move to Mastodon and my feed was replaced by a bunch of garbage ads (as I was no longer able to use my 3rd party app). So yes, I did move to Mastodon as well. I understand it's not everywhere, but Mastodon engagement is surprisingly very high

concordDance 4y ago

I'd really like to see some people put their money where their mouth is and place some metacalculus bets. Things like whether twitters losses in 2023 will be higher or lower than 2022. Whether user numbers will go up or down. Whether revenue will go up or down. Number of minutes of outages. Etc Personally I'd bet on less losses, revenue slightly down (10% ish) and user numbers approximately the same this year compared to last. Longer term I think the loss of verified status for journalists will stop it being a big source for their news stories, which will decrease its popularity. But that's next year at the earliest.

rsynnott 4y ago
It's not a public company anymore, so there would be no way to settle the bet.