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Every recession in over 70 years has seen a rise in unemployment before the recession started 1, shaded blocs are recessions]. So far unemployment is still tren

Every recession in over 70 years has seen a rise in unemployment before the recession started 1, shaded blocs are recessions]. So far unemployment is still trending down. And historically the length of time between recessions is quite varied. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

adam_arthur 4y ago
Yes, unemployment is low and then rises. Show me on this chart where unemployment goes low and stays low for an extended period? It has never happened. Recession dynamics in relation to unemployment are well understood. Low unemployment as a driver of inflation is well understood. Fed reaction function in relation to inflation is well understood. The consequence of higher unemployment as a result of higher real rates is well understood Only immaculate disinflation can prevent a recession at this point. If fed has to induce it, a recession is all but guaranteed
- SideQuark 4y ago
  >Show me on this chart where unemployment goes low and stays low for an extended period? It has never happened. Show where on the chart it stays flat for long period of time. You're just moving goalposts at this point. The fact is, and is demonstrated by that chart, that unemployment tends downwards between recessions, then jumps during them. And each recession had an uptick before the recession. The down trend length is not at all indicative of impending recession from that chart. And, as I pointed out to begin with, the current unemployment is not having that uptick. Many of the upticks took over a year from uptick start to recession. And there's ample upticks more than 5 years before the next recession. So uptick does not imply recession, but lack of uptick implies no recession soon. There is not a single example among the 12 recessions in that data (and, if you look at other country data, the same pattern appears). My original point is correct: there is yet no sign in the unemployment data of impending recession, no matter how much you seem to want one, so much so you make incorrect claims about the data without actually checking the data. >Recession dynamics in relation to unemployment are well understood. Low unemployment as a driver of inflation is well understood. Fed reaction function in relation to inflation is well understood. The consequence of higher unemployment as a result of higher real rates is well understood Those are partially understood - if there were such a causal or even empirical link from one to the other we'd not need the NBER to analyze macro variables to decide on recessions. This is not physics - there is a lot more uncertainty, and some factors move over time as different factor weights change (and even political will to do things). That there is no simple way to look at all the variables you mention and claim "impending recession!" with any certainty is the most salient fact of all. And, as I pointed out, unemployment is not at this moment pointing to immediate recession, unless you have a never before seen relation between them.
fuzzfactor 4y ago
Looks like the data matches the history. Where as soon as each official recession has been deemed to occur in retrospect according to today's terms, then unemployment shoots up since so many people are kicked out. As we have seen.
- SideQuark 4y ago
  >has been deemed to occur in retrospect according to today's terms Yes, that graph shows the "retrospect" recession start, and every one is after unemployment rises. But not every rise in unemployment yields a recession. Currently there is not a rise in unemployment.

adam_arthur 4y ago

Yes, unemployment is low and then rises. Show me on this chart where unemployment goes low and stays low for an extended period? It has never happened. Recession dynamics in relation to unemployment are well understood. Low unemployment as a driver of inflation is well understood. Fed reaction function in relation to inflation is well understood. The consequence of higher unemployment as a result of higher real rates is well understood Only immaculate disinflation can prevent a recession at this point. If fed has to induce it, a recession is all but guaranteed

SideQuark 4y ago
>Show me on this chart where unemployment goes low and stays low for an extended period? It has never happened. Show where on the chart it stays flat for long period of time. You're just moving goalposts at this point. The fact is, and is demonstrated by that chart, that unemployment tends downwards between recessions, then jumps during them. And each recession had an uptick before the recession. The down trend length is not at all indicative of impending recession from that chart. And, as I pointed out to begin with, the current unemployment is not having that uptick. Many of the upticks took over a year from uptick start to recession. And there's ample upticks more than 5 years before the next recession. So uptick does not imply recession, but lack of uptick implies no recession soon. There is not a single example among the 12 recessions in that data (and, if you look at other country data, the same pattern appears). My original point is correct: there is yet no sign in the unemployment data of impending recession, no matter how much you seem to want one, so much so you make incorrect claims about the data without actually checking the data. >Recession dynamics in relation to unemployment are well understood. Low unemployment as a driver of inflation is well understood. Fed reaction function in relation to inflation is well understood. The consequence of higher unemployment as a result of higher real rates is well understood Those are partially understood - if there were such a causal or even empirical link from one to the other we'd not need the NBER to analyze macro variables to decide on recessions. This is not physics - there is a lot more uncertainty, and some factors move over time as different factor weights change (and even political will to do things). That there is no simple way to look at all the variables you mention and claim "impending recession!" with any certainty is the most salient fact of all. And, as I pointed out, unemployment is not at this moment pointing to immediate recession, unless you have a never before seen relation between them.

fuzzfactor 4y ago

Looks like the data matches the history. Where as soon as each official recession has been deemed to occur in retrospect according to today's terms, then unemployment shoots up since so many people are kicked out. As we have seen.

SideQuark 4y ago
>has been deemed to occur in retrospect according to today's terms Yes, that graph shows the "retrospect" recession start, and every one is after unemployment rises. But not every rise in unemployment yields a recession. Currently there is not a rise in unemployment.