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> Also, China has been cautious about nukes, I don't see them going for a lot. That's not the assessment of the US Department of Defense [1]: In 2021, Beiji
by credit_guy 4y ago
> Also, China has been cautious about nukes, I don't see them going for a lot.
That's not the assessment of the US Department of Defense [1]:
In 2021, Beijing probably accelerated its nuclear expansion. The Department of Defense estimates that the PRC’s operational nuclear warheads stockpile has surpassed 400.
The PLA plans to "basically complete modernization" of its national defense and armed forces by 2035. If China continues the pace of its nuclear expansion, it will likely field a stockpile of about 1500 warheads by its 2035 timeline.
[1] https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2003122279/-1/-1/1/2022-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2003122279/-1/-1/1/202...
- ianburrell 4y agoThe Pentagon knows more than I do. China has definitely changed strategy and expanded recently. It is impressive and scary how much they've built in last couple of years. I can see a few reasons why they would stop nuclear expansion early. They are already at a place where can deter. They don't need the same number of platforms like they don't need strategic bombers or as many SSBNs. The main reason I can see them building more warheads is to match the US and Russia especially if they expand after arms control failure. https://fas.org/blogs/security/2023/02/stratcom-says-china-has-more-icbm-launchers-than-the-united-states/ https://fas.org/blogs/security/2023/02/stratcom-says-china-h... I found article about potential increase and the US stockpile numbers match what is needed to fully MIRV all missiles. https://fas.org/blogs/security/2023/02/if-arms-control-collapses-us-and-russian-strategic-nuclear-arsenals-could-double-in-size/ https://fas.org/blogs/security/2023/02/if-arms-control-colla...