2 ms·

I think a big part of it is inertia. They have a certain number of ICBMs and SLBMs. I think they are going to replace with same numbers of Sentinel ICBMs and Co

I think a big part of it is inertia. They have a certain number of ICBMs and SLBMs. I think they are going to replace with same numbers of Sentinel ICBMs and Columbia SSBNs. I wouldn't be surprised if they want to keep enough warheads in storage to fully MIRV them. They are also keeping a lot of gravity bombs and cruise missiles, both active and in storage, when don't need that many. I wonder if the expense of maintaining them will cause the stockpile to shrink. There is big program to refurbish nukes and they should retire many of them instead. My understanding is that the retired weapons are being dismantled and probably can't be reactivated. Also, the US has the 50 tons of plutonium, much of it in pits, from retired weapons. It sounded like storing the plutonium is a blockage in dismantling old ones. I agree with you about the number of warheads. I think the main danger is someone trying for enough for first strike and thinking it is possible. Also, China has been cautious about nukes, I don't see them going for a lot. Russia has other problems right now.

credit_guy 4y ago
> Also, China has been cautious about nukes, I don't see them going for a lot. That's not the assessment of the US Department of Defense [1]: In 2021, Beijing probably accelerated its nuclear expansion. The Department of Defense estimates that the PRC’s operational nuclear warheads stockpile has surpassed 400. The PLA plans to "basically complete modernization" of its national defense and armed forces by 2035. If China continues the pace of its nuclear expansion, it will likely field a stockpile of about 1500 warheads by its 2035 timeline. [1] https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2003122279/-1/-1/1/2022-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2003122279/-1/-1/1/202...
- ianburrell 4y ago
  The Pentagon knows more than I do. China has definitely changed strategy and expanded recently. It is impressive and scary how much they've built in last couple of years. I can see a few reasons why they would stop nuclear expansion early. They are already at a place where can deter. They don't need the same number of platforms like they don't need strategic bombers or as many SSBNs. The main reason I can see them building more warheads is to match the US and Russia especially if they expand after arms control failure. https://fas.org/blogs/security/2023/02/stratcom-says-china-has-more-icbm-launchers-than-the-united-states/ https://fas.org/blogs/security/2023/02/stratcom-says-china-h... I found article about potential increase and the US stockpile numbers match what is needed to fully MIRV all missiles. https://fas.org/blogs/security/2023/02/if-arms-control-collapses-us-and-russian-strategic-nuclear-arsenals-could-double-in-size/ https://fas.org/blogs/security/2023/02/if-arms-control-colla...

credit_guy 4y ago

> Also, China has been cautious about nukes, I don't see them going for a lot. That's not the assessment of the US Department of Defense [1]: In 2021, Beijing probably accelerated its nuclear expansion. The Department of Defense estimates that the PRC’s operational nuclear warheads stockpile has surpassed 400. The PLA plans to "basically complete modernization" of its national defense and armed forces by 2035. If China continues the pace of its nuclear expansion, it will likely field a stockpile of about 1500 warheads by its 2035 timeline. [1] https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2003122279/-1/-1/1/2022-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2003122279/-1/-1/1/202...

ianburrell 4y ago
The Pentagon knows more than I do. China has definitely changed strategy and expanded recently. It is impressive and scary how much they've built in last couple of years. I can see a few reasons why they would stop nuclear expansion early. They are already at a place where can deter. They don't need the same number of platforms like they don't need strategic bombers or as many SSBNs. The main reason I can see them building more warheads is to match the US and Russia especially if they expand after arms control failure. https://fas.org/blogs/security/2023/02/stratcom-says-china-has-more-icbm-launchers-than-the-united-states/ https://fas.org/blogs/security/2023/02/stratcom-says-china-h... I found article about potential increase and the US stockpile numbers match what is needed to fully MIRV all missiles. https://fas.org/blogs/security/2023/02/if-arms-control-collapses-us-and-russian-strategic-nuclear-arsenals-could-double-in-size/ https://fas.org/blogs/security/2023/02/if-arms-control-colla...