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One wonders about the future when Gangs could be leveraging big data and machine learning to track police and predict where they will raid. "Predictive policing

One wonders about the future when Gangs could be leveraging big data and machine learning to track police and predict where they will raid. "Predictive policing" indeed.

bluetomcat 4y ago
In Albania, "police" and "gangs" can be 2 groups with a lot of shared interests. A large portion of the economy is fueled from criminal activity abroad, all across Europe. It also finances the state to a large extent.
- PYTHONDJANGO 4y ago
  [flagged]
- hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
  I'm curious, what is it about Albanian society that has created such notorious criminal enterprised, compared to, say, neighboring countries, like Greece, former Yugoslavian states, Bulgaria, etc.?
  - bluetomcat 4y ago
    I think the difference in these countries can be attributed to Orthodox Christianity and the rather strong extended-family bonds. For example, post-communist Bulgaria still has a corruption problem to this day, but its nature is rather different. The former communist state security had a monopoly on all illegal activities during the 1990s. Street gangs of “mutras” were allowed to roam the streets, steal cars, racketeer small family businesses for “insurance services”, but were never allowed to touch anyone’s child, to force someone into human trafficking or to engage in their own illegal foreign schemes without the full knowledge of the state. State security had all the information about former smuggling routes and the gangs were used solely for “doing a job” with a higher risk-rate.
  - squokko 4y ago
    The real answer to this question will result in an account ban
  - alephnerd 4y ago
    An existing clan structure and the collapse of the Albanian state in the 90s leading to intergenerational trauma among the diaspora. Also, a lot of ethnic Albanians in the diaspora are from Kosovo, Macedonia, Serbia, and Bosnia so they are survivors or the children of survivors from the Yugoslav Civil War. You see similar issues and dynamics among Sri Lankan Tamils in Toronto and Australia, Vietnamese gangs in the Bay Area in the 90s and 2000s, Punjabi Gangs in BC in the 90s and 2000s, Algerians in France/Belgium/Netherlands, Kurds from Turkey in France/Sweden/Germany, and Central American gangs like MS-13 across California - all are the children of survivors or survivors from very brutal civil wars dropped into impoverished neighborhoods with locals who were antagonistic to these refugees. Because these survivors had existing community structures and occasionally actual combat experience, they could organize and fight back. Add to that a lot of the players in the conflicts in the old country ended up converting their militias or organizations into Organized Crime to continue funding the "good fight" in the old country. Also, other Balkan diasporas have similar issues like the Albanians. Serbian organized crime is a player in NYC, Chicago, Australia, and Germany for example.
    - hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
      Thank you for such a thoughtful, insightful post. Made me think about things in a different way, most appreciated.
    - squokko 4y ago
      Interesting. Suggests that we should not admit refugees from brutal civil wars?
    - bakuninsbart 4y ago
      Here in Germany, as you say, both Serbian and Albanian gangs are highly successful. To add to your points, both communities are very tightly knit, and it is not uncommon for an Albanian to have family all around the country. This created a kind of a "virtuous" circle where gangs had connections all around the country, and criminal enterprise was by far the most lucrative choice of career. You've mentioned many examples already, but another on would be Lebanese people who fled the civil war to Europe, and went on to create some of the most powerful criminal organizations in Germany and neighboring countries.
  - mrtksn 4y ago
    In the 90s, Bulgaria was just like Albania but things got dramatically better once Bulgaria got on the NATO and EU path. That said, Bulgaria is still not on par with the the west and a lot of criminal activity is still going on(not that the west doesn't have criminals but in general Eastern Europe is much worse).
- foxyv 4y ago
  In some ways, you could consider Uber to be a criminal organization. They were pretty much an illegal Taxi service that grew so fast that no one could stand against them for long. I wonder how many gangs are just small scale Uber operations. Providing a service that is in demand, but legally grey/black and resorting to bribery, coercion, and violent means to protect their interests. How many new grey market criminal organizations will we call disruptive instead of criminal? What will happen when criminal organizations will be able to get rounds of investment, the same as any legal organization? With major corporations intentionally violating the law as a "cost of business" what is the line between criminal and legitimate organizations?
  - alephnerd 4y ago
    Can Uber corporate put a bullet in your head for refusal of payment, or literally kneecap you for competing? That is the differentiator between grey market and black market.
    - foxyv 4y ago
      Depending on which country you are in, I think that's a distinct possibility. In the USA they will probably just use legal means to SLAPP anyone they don't like. But in other countries... https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/jul/11/uber-hired-oligarch-linked-lobbyist-russia-bribery-fears https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/jul/11/uber-hired-olig...
      - alephnerd 4y ago
        In countries like Russia, China, India, etc you need to hire these kinds of Oligarchs and Lobbyists to operate. Otherwise bad things happen. Look at Amazon India for example - Prime Video India basically shut down for a year due to the Tandav scandal and Amazon Delivery Trucks in Bangalore were burnt because they pissed off the Small Business/Pharmacy lobby in KA. And they were publically humiliated before all this by the Minister of Commerce in 2019. This was a big reason Uber divested out of China and ASEAN - they started stepping on entrenched players toes and had no political cover. In the US, the worst that would happen is corporate litigation with an out of court settlment or speeches by local politicians. Not in developing countries. Weaponized litigation like SLAAP is of course being abused, but as a business operating in the developed world, the rule of law still holds. You won't mysteriously have the IRS or FBI start auditing every single of your transcations, see your trucks or stores burned down, be held PERSONALLY liable, or even mysteriously get shot while leaving court.
qikInNdOutReply 4y ago
The future is active in ukraine. Take them out with a drone, for cost of a gun, you dont even have to be nearby. In fact, if they flash signals (red blue lights) .. you can automate it..
- wongarsu 4y ago
  Automation might be viable in some places in the Americas where cartels effectivley have full control over a region, or for anyone else in a sufficiently remote region who wants to achieve something simialr. Everywhere else you would want to choose your targets carefully. It's easier for police to turn a blind eye if you don't appear to be waging war against them.
  - qikInNdOutReply 4y ago
    Thats were you wrong, that a faction has to be defined to wage a war. Its just another city were some unknown party carried solar charged boxes on the roof, that dislodge drones on siren sound or whatever. The idea, that there is a "war" declaration or even somebody there, is part of the past. You could hire gig workers to place the dronepackages a "pr" gag allover town. There is not a need for flags, territory or other outdated concepts. Just attrition and correlation.. of wear and tear on civilization
    - userulluipeste 4y ago
      "There is not a need for flags, territory or other outdated concepts." Any conflict has reasons behind it, as it is just another enterprise that consumes resources for expected rewards. Given the practical needs to manage the said consumed resources, even in guerilla style warfare the conflicts have to have limits (i.e. be contained to a territory). The territory, which these conflicts are waged on, can be and is sooner or later linked to (at least suspected) interested parties. The flags are basically just means to identify a given interested party once it grows past the Dunbar’s number. I do not say that there aren't concepts out there that have little to no practical use (say, an anthem, or a motto), I'm just saying that your list outdated concepts were not good examples.
adharmad 4y ago
Wouldn't it be simpler for them to just have moles in the police department? Or bribe some of the officials involved?
- gpvos 4y ago
  These things don't exclude each other. Also, people can be more expensive and less reliable than machinery.
- shanebellone 4y ago
  Moles can testify. Cameras cannot.
  - dsfyu404ed 4y ago
    Technology doesn't have family members you can cripple.
    - moremetadata 4y ago
      Exactly, where there's a will, there's a way. What is your interpretation of a will?
- geodel 4y ago
  Automation thru better tech infrastructure is key. Moles keep asking for more benefits, like insurance, improved health coverage, increasing travel expense and so on. Money is not raining on anyone including gangs where any service price can be paid, no question asked.
- mschuster91 4y ago
  That always carries the risk of leaving a trail somewhere or getting set up by a sting operation. Tech, assuming it's reasonably well secured (and tamper proof is ever easier and easier to achieve), doesn't.
fIREpOK 4y ago
It could also be used to tack bas cops
- fIREpOK 4y ago
  It has the potential to be utilized for monitoring misconduct by police officers.
Spooky23 4y ago
They already are. Drug gangs have used devices to detect raids by detecting poor opsec (Bluetooth, etc). As this tech gets easier, it’s easier to build surveillance networks. No doubt there are significant netowkrs of surveillance all over!
culi 4y ago
A lot of poor, majority black and brown, neighborhoods have community organized "cop watches". They usually play a role similar to what the Black Panthers did. Just show up when a cop pulls someone over and sit there and watch (and nowadays, record) just to let them know the public's eye is on them It'd be amazing to see surveillance capitalism turned against itself like this
- Teever 4y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sousveillance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sousveillance
- myself248 4y ago
  I keep wondering when citizen ALPR will start augmenting some of these roles. I don't know if it's universal, but here government-owned vehicles always have an X in the license plate, so you wouldn't even need a database, just alert on any X-plate entering the neighborhood. Could detect strobing lights with the same cameras, and summon the Watchers automatically.
germandiago 4y ago
At some point we will need this to protect from the police. The way they are legislating in Spain lately is atrocious and the priorities do not respond to citizens demands at all.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

One wonders about the future when Gangs could be leveraging big data and machine learning to track police and predict where they will raid. "Predictive policing" indeed.

bluetomcat 4y ago

In Albania, "police" and "gangs" can be 2 groups with a lot of shared interests. A large portion of the economy is fueled from criminal activity abroad, all across Europe. It also finances the state to a large extent.

PYTHONDJANGO 4y ago
[flagged]
hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
I'm curious, what is it about Albanian society that has created such notorious criminal enterprised, compared to, say, neighboring countries, like Greece, former Yugoslavian states, Bulgaria, etc.?
- bluetomcat 4y ago
  I think the difference in these countries can be attributed to Orthodox Christianity and the rather strong extended-family bonds. For example, post-communist Bulgaria still has a corruption problem to this day, but its nature is rather different. The former communist state security had a monopoly on all illegal activities during the 1990s. Street gangs of “mutras” were allowed to roam the streets, steal cars, racketeer small family businesses for “insurance services”, but were never allowed to touch anyone’s child, to force someone into human trafficking or to engage in their own illegal foreign schemes without the full knowledge of the state. State security had all the information about former smuggling routes and the gangs were used solely for “doing a job” with a higher risk-rate.
- squokko 4y ago
  The real answer to this question will result in an account ban
- alephnerd 4y ago
  An existing clan structure and the collapse of the Albanian state in the 90s leading to intergenerational trauma among the diaspora. Also, a lot of ethnic Albanians in the diaspora are from Kosovo, Macedonia, Serbia, and Bosnia so they are survivors or the children of survivors from the Yugoslav Civil War. You see similar issues and dynamics among Sri Lankan Tamils in Toronto and Australia, Vietnamese gangs in the Bay Area in the 90s and 2000s, Punjabi Gangs in BC in the 90s and 2000s, Algerians in France/Belgium/Netherlands, Kurds from Turkey in France/Sweden/Germany, and Central American gangs like MS-13 across California - all are the children of survivors or survivors from very brutal civil wars dropped into impoverished neighborhoods with locals who were antagonistic to these refugees. Because these survivors had existing community structures and occasionally actual combat experience, they could organize and fight back. Add to that a lot of the players in the conflicts in the old country ended up converting their militias or organizations into Organized Crime to continue funding the "good fight" in the old country. Also, other Balkan diasporas have similar issues like the Albanians. Serbian organized crime is a player in NYC, Chicago, Australia, and Germany for example.
  - hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
    Thank you for such a thoughtful, insightful post. Made me think about things in a different way, most appreciated.
  - squokko 4y ago
    Interesting. Suggests that we should not admit refugees from brutal civil wars?
  - bakuninsbart 4y ago
    Here in Germany, as you say, both Serbian and Albanian gangs are highly successful. To add to your points, both communities are very tightly knit, and it is not uncommon for an Albanian to have family all around the country. This created a kind of a "virtuous" circle where gangs had connections all around the country, and criminal enterprise was by far the most lucrative choice of career. You've mentioned many examples already, but another on would be Lebanese people who fled the civil war to Europe, and went on to create some of the most powerful criminal organizations in Germany and neighboring countries.
- mrtksn 4y ago
  In the 90s, Bulgaria was just like Albania but things got dramatically better once Bulgaria got on the NATO and EU path. That said, Bulgaria is still not on par with the the west and a lot of criminal activity is still going on(not that the west doesn't have criminals but in general Eastern Europe is much worse).
foxyv 4y ago
In some ways, you could consider Uber to be a criminal organization. They were pretty much an illegal Taxi service that grew so fast that no one could stand against them for long. I wonder how many gangs are just small scale Uber operations. Providing a service that is in demand, but legally grey/black and resorting to bribery, coercion, and violent means to protect their interests. How many new grey market criminal organizations will we call disruptive instead of criminal? What will happen when criminal organizations will be able to get rounds of investment, the same as any legal organization? With major corporations intentionally violating the law as a "cost of business" what is the line between criminal and legitimate organizations?
- alephnerd 4y ago
  Can Uber corporate put a bullet in your head for refusal of payment, or literally kneecap you for competing? That is the differentiator between grey market and black market.
  - foxyv 4y ago
    Depending on which country you are in, I think that's a distinct possibility. In the USA they will probably just use legal means to SLAPP anyone they don't like. But in other countries... https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/jul/11/uber-hired-oligarch-linked-lobbyist-russia-bribery-fears https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/jul/11/uber-hired-olig...
    - alephnerd 4y ago
      In countries like Russia, China, India, etc you need to hire these kinds of Oligarchs and Lobbyists to operate. Otherwise bad things happen. Look at Amazon India for example - Prime Video India basically shut down for a year due to the Tandav scandal and Amazon Delivery Trucks in Bangalore were burnt because they pissed off the Small Business/Pharmacy lobby in KA. And they were publically humiliated before all this by the Minister of Commerce in 2019. This was a big reason Uber divested out of China and ASEAN - they started stepping on entrenched players toes and had no political cover. In the US, the worst that would happen is corporate litigation with an out of court settlment or speeches by local politicians. Not in developing countries. Weaponized litigation like SLAAP is of course being abused, but as a business operating in the developed world, the rule of law still holds. You won't mysteriously have the IRS or FBI start auditing every single of your transcations, see your trucks or stores burned down, be held PERSONALLY liable, or even mysteriously get shot while leaving court.

qikInNdOutReply 4y ago

The future is active in ukraine. Take them out with a drone, for cost of a gun, you dont even have to be nearby. In fact, if they flash signals (red blue lights) .. you can automate it..

wongarsu 4y ago
Automation might be viable in some places in the Americas where cartels effectivley have full control over a region, or for anyone else in a sufficiently remote region who wants to achieve something simialr. Everywhere else you would want to choose your targets carefully. It's easier for police to turn a blind eye if you don't appear to be waging war against them.
- qikInNdOutReply 4y ago
  Thats were you wrong, that a faction has to be defined to wage a war. Its just another city were some unknown party carried solar charged boxes on the roof, that dislodge drones on siren sound or whatever. The idea, that there is a "war" declaration or even somebody there, is part of the past. You could hire gig workers to place the dronepackages a "pr" gag allover town. There is not a need for flags, territory or other outdated concepts. Just attrition and correlation.. of wear and tear on civilization
  - userulluipeste 4y ago
    "There is not a need for flags, territory or other outdated concepts." Any conflict has reasons behind it, as it is just another enterprise that consumes resources for expected rewards. Given the practical needs to manage the said consumed resources, even in guerilla style warfare the conflicts have to have limits (i.e. be contained to a territory). The territory, which these conflicts are waged on, can be and is sooner or later linked to (at least suspected) interested parties. The flags are basically just means to identify a given interested party once it grows past the Dunbar’s number. I do not say that there aren't concepts out there that have little to no practical use (say, an anthem, or a motto), I'm just saying that your list outdated concepts were not good examples.

adharmad 4y ago

Wouldn't it be simpler for them to just have moles in the police department? Or bribe some of the officials involved?

gpvos 4y ago
These things don't exclude each other. Also, people can be more expensive and less reliable than machinery.
shanebellone 4y ago
Moles can testify. Cameras cannot.
- dsfyu404ed 4y ago
  Technology doesn't have family members you can cripple.
  - moremetadata 4y ago
    Exactly, where there's a will, there's a way. What is your interpretation of a will?
geodel 4y ago
Automation thru better tech infrastructure is key. Moles keep asking for more benefits, like insurance, improved health coverage, increasing travel expense and so on. Money is not raining on anyone including gangs where any service price can be paid, no question asked.
mschuster91 4y ago
That always carries the risk of leaving a trail somewhere or getting set up by a sting operation. Tech, assuming it's reasonably well secured (and tamper proof is ever easier and easier to achieve), doesn't.

fIREpOK 4y ago

It could also be used to tack bas cops

fIREpOK 4y ago
It has the potential to be utilized for monitoring misconduct by police officers.

Spooky23 4y ago

They already are. Drug gangs have used devices to detect raids by detecting poor opsec (Bluetooth, etc). As this tech gets easier, it’s easier to build surveillance networks. No doubt there are significant netowkrs of surveillance all over!

culi 4y ago

A lot of poor, majority black and brown, neighborhoods have community organized "cop watches". They usually play a role similar to what the Black Panthers did. Just show up when a cop pulls someone over and sit there and watch (and nowadays, record) just to let them know the public's eye is on them It'd be amazing to see surveillance capitalism turned against itself like this

Teever 4y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sousveillance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sousveillance
myself248 4y ago
I keep wondering when citizen ALPR will start augmenting some of these roles. I don't know if it's universal, but here government-owned vehicles always have an X in the license plate, so you wouldn't even need a database, just alert on any X-plate entering the neighborhood. Could detect strobing lights with the same cameras, and summon the Watchers automatically.

germandiago 4y ago

At some point we will need this to protect from the police. The way they are legislating in Spain lately is atrocious and the priorities do not respond to citizens demands at all.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]