5 ms·

> because Explain the causal effect especially apropos small boat arrivals behind this apparently inevitable gravitational force

Retric 4y ago
Remove all immigrants and children of immigrants from the UK and it would have an extremely old population. As in median age of ~60+ in dire economic straits which would push everyone who could to abandon the country. Small boat arrivals are a trivial number of people irrelevant to this discussion. You can’t have both negative population growth and 300,000+ people leaving the country every year for very long without massive issues. And those massive issues are going to push even more people to leave resulting in even more issues. Which would effectively force the country to promote immigration even if it doesn’t want immigrants the UK needs them. Alternatively, if the population growth rate was positive then the country wouldn’t have nearly the need for immigrants to be stable.
- bernawil 4y ago
  Maybe, many of those natives leaving every year do so because of the extra competition with the immigrants: bringing people over causes lower salaries and higher costs of housing. What's worse is that, those leaving presumably are capable of making it in "better" economies. So in pure GDP-per capita-producing terms, you just exchanged some natives for worse performers. That's what happens when you're not in the top of the totem of the immigration market.
  - Retric 4y ago
    The majority of people leaving the UK were immigrants themselves. It’s fairly common globally for immigrants to then move to another country. But that’s been especially true in the EU.
    - bernawil 4y ago
      According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in the year ending June 2020, an estimated 673,000 people emigrated from the UK. This includes both UK-born and non-UK-born individuals. Of the total emigrants, approximately 316,000 (47%) were UK-born, and approximately 357,000 (53%) were non-UK-born. The non-UK-born emigrants included both non-British citizens and British citizens who were born outside the UK. So it's almost 50/50. Looks actually worse than I'd imagined.
      - Retric 4y ago
        Yes, though 2020 was a real outlier for hopefully obvious reasons. The 2019 breakdown was 397k emigrants of which 131k where British, 151k EU, and 115k non-EU. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/november2019/pdf https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populati... It’s going to be interesting to see how things settle down in a post Brexit and COVID UK.
        deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]

Retric 4y ago

Remove all immigrants and children of immigrants from the UK and it would have an extremely old population. As in median age of ~60+ in dire economic straits which would push everyone who could to abandon the country. Small boat arrivals are a trivial number of people irrelevant to this discussion. You can’t have both negative population growth and 300,000+ people leaving the country every year for very long without massive issues. And those massive issues are going to push even more people to leave resulting in even more issues. Which would effectively force the country to promote immigration even if it doesn’t want immigrants the UK needs them. Alternatively, if the population growth rate was positive then the country wouldn’t have nearly the need for immigrants to be stable.

bernawil 4y ago
Maybe, many of those natives leaving every year do so because of the extra competition with the immigrants: bringing people over causes lower salaries and higher costs of housing. What's worse is that, those leaving presumably are capable of making it in "better" economies. So in pure GDP-per capita-producing terms, you just exchanged some natives for worse performers. That's what happens when you're not in the top of the totem of the immigration market.
- Retric 4y ago
  The majority of people leaving the UK were immigrants themselves. It’s fairly common globally for immigrants to then move to another country. But that’s been especially true in the EU.
  - bernawil 4y ago
    According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in the year ending June 2020, an estimated 673,000 people emigrated from the UK. This includes both UK-born and non-UK-born individuals. Of the total emigrants, approximately 316,000 (47%) were UK-born, and approximately 357,000 (53%) were non-UK-born. The non-UK-born emigrants included both non-British citizens and British citizens who were born outside the UK. So it's almost 50/50. Looks actually worse than I'd imagined.
    - Retric 4y ago
      Yes, though 2020 was a real outlier for hopefully obvious reasons. The 2019 breakdown was 397k emigrants of which 131k where British, 151k EU, and 115k non-EU. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/november2019/pdf https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populati... It’s going to be interesting to see how things settle down in a post Brexit and COVID UK.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]