4 ms·

Are these biases wrong though? In a hypothetical perfectly spherical chickens in vacuum world, yes, but in reality you probably want some outcome bias for examp

by blfr 4y ago

Are these biases wrong though? In a hypothetical perfectly spherical chickens in vacuum world, yes, but in reality you probably want some outcome bias for example because you don't control all the variables. So the analysis of perception of that bias and bias blind spot strike me as interesting but rather useless.

naasking 4y ago
They're wrong if you're interested in truth, just maybe not wrong if you're interested in reproductive fitness. We're not so concerned about the latter these days so much as the former.
lumb63 4y ago
Your comment gave me an interesting way to think about biases: Bayesian statistics. It is no wonder we see people end up at vastly different conclusions when their starting point (bias) is so different. Coupled with this, bias is probably correlated with experiences to some extent, leading two different individuals to entirely different conclusions. This is a good argument for devolution, IMO. Today’s politics is too large-scale and winner-take-all to accurately represent all its constituents. For instance, a topic like immigration in the US has no solution that will appease everyone, because there are so many different viewpoints that conflict with each other. We should let smaller populations with a higher level of concurrence govern themselves accordingly.
- asdff 4y ago
  On the other hand, maybe the only population size sufficient to have a high level of concurrence in thought is 1 individual. Maybe there are weird effects going on with individual preferences as population gets small. Consider you and a spouse deciding on dinner, you want pasta they want tacos. Complete disagreement. Imagine you now have a kid, they want tacos too. Maybe given the population size, you soften your convictions on the pasta, and opt for the tacos since the majority is leaning that way. A phenomenon like this, whether it is real or not, would screw up the small pop is more agreeable model, for example.

by blfr 4y ago

naasking 4y ago

They're wrong if you're interested in truth, just maybe not wrong if you're interested in reproductive fitness. We're not so concerned about the latter these days so much as the former.

lumb63 4y ago

Your comment gave me an interesting way to think about biases: Bayesian statistics. It is no wonder we see people end up at vastly different conclusions when their starting point (bias) is so different. Coupled with this, bias is probably correlated with experiences to some extent, leading two different individuals to entirely different conclusions. This is a good argument for devolution, IMO. Today’s politics is too large-scale and winner-take-all to accurately represent all its constituents. For instance, a topic like immigration in the US has no solution that will appease everyone, because there are so many different viewpoints that conflict with each other. We should let smaller populations with a higher level of concurrence govern themselves accordingly.

asdff 4y ago
On the other hand, maybe the only population size sufficient to have a high level of concurrence in thought is 1 individual. Maybe there are weird effects going on with individual preferences as population gets small. Consider you and a spouse deciding on dinner, you want pasta they want tacos. Complete disagreement. Imagine you now have a kid, they want tacos too. Maybe given the population size, you soften your convictions on the pasta, and opt for the tacos since the majority is leaning that way. A phenomenon like this, whether it is real or not, would screw up the small pop is more agreeable model, for example.