5 ms·

Ask HN: Sam Altman, things that will be retain value post AI

23 points by monkeyonethe 4y ago

Sam Altman: https://youtu.be/WHoWGNQRXb0?t=924 "Marginal cost of inteligency and marginal cost of energy are going to trend rapidly towards zero, and those are the major inputs into the costs of everything else except things we want to be expensive like status goods wtvr..." What is Sam referring to by "status goods", like porches and LVMH bags? Is art going to be a part of the small amount of things that retain value? Anyone have thoughts on the subject?

hislaziness 4y ago
NFTs?
bitxbitxbitcoin 4y ago
Wrap around porches are quite the status in some places.
- jjdeveloper 4y ago
  May be true for America but not so much on houses here in Australia
Handprint4469 4y ago
> Is art going to be a part of the small amount of things that retain value? It depends on how you define art. Creativity and intelligence are highly correlated, so if AI capabilities (intelligence) keep going up, it's only a matter of time until AI becomes very good at creating art that is enjoyed and consumed by humans. On the other hand, with a bit of semantic sleight-of-hand, you could re-define art so that it only includes things made by humans, and try to artificially keep the price high that way. But I don't think it will work the way you expect it to. Rather, art made purely by humans will become a status symbol and it will be expensive not due to being technically superior, but due to its relative scarcity compared to AI-generated art. And the market for it will be much smaller than today, due to the overabundance of AI-generated art.
shagie 4y ago
Art, from an artist, that you can hang on a wall has been and will continue to be a status good. Stock art, as a clip art or a background image to a web page hasn't been a status good. Things posted in /r/art (and similar) are not goods but rather adverting and validation. The key differentiator in this is the craft that goes into the art. I have some photographs hat I've purchased at art festivals that hang on my walls - and some I've taken myself. Those are still status goods. The craft needed to shoot a photo that can be enlarged up to 2' x 6' is quite different than the craft needed to create a digital image that looks good at those resolutions. (controversial part here) A lot of hobbiest artists that work for commission are the most threatened as their art hasn't ever been status goods and doesn't retain value. At the same time, the scale that they work in is one offs rather than doing a print run of 250 and selling those framed. The thing is, I don't particularly want to buy a picture of someone else's cat. And if I can take a picture of my cat and use img2img to make it in to an image that I'd print out at Kinkos and put in a $5 Target picture frame that I'd then put in my bedroom... that's a commission that someone else might not have gotten. That image will never show up on Antiques Roadshow. It will never be a numbered print that is auctioned off. It doesn't retain any value. However, that copy of a Peter Lik print that I've got hanging - well, that's a status good. The print cost a bit and the framing cost a bit... and I make considerations about where to hang it in a room so that the sun doesn't shine on it. Yes, art that involves craft will retain value and will remain in the category of status goods. Art that is a one off commission is likely to lose what value it had and can be done cheaply without the artist. Art that you buy at an art festival or gallery will be rather unchanged - though the people who are just after "stuff" will likely find it easier / cheaper with AI generation than paying a premium. AI generation is still a long way from doing fiber art or the physical sense of presence with a impasto painting ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impasto https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impasto ) - yes, might be able to get the same image digitally, but the paint on canvas isn't there yet (and when it does, it will be interesting - but then the craft will be in the machine doing it rather than the painting - I'd love to have an original print from a Jaquet-Droz automata - not for the artistic quality of the image on paper but what it represents).
- kerpotgh 4y ago
  There’s going to be plenty of “art from an artist” that going to be AI art. If that gets caught enough we’re either going to have to put blinders on or find a foolproof verification third party.
toomuchtodo 4y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veblen_good https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veblen_good Watches, wines, designer anything not made by AI. Check out episodes of Star Trek: The Next Generation with regards to exploration of ideas of value when goods come out of a replicator and experiences out of a Holodeck at zero marginal cost.
- monkeyonethe 4y ago
  which episodes of Star Trek should I watch? I feel like watches and designer good could be easily designed by AI, no?
  - kingkongjaffa 4y ago
    Part of the point is people buy the status and the history of the brand. If the brand is consistent with the customers values. If it comes out of a cold lifeless machine and not the warm hands of human craftsmanship, is it the same thing?
  - ihatepython 4y ago
    > which episodes of Star Trek should I watch? Perhaps 'The Neutral Zone' season 1 episode 26. There is a cryogenically frozen person brought back to life, and he is obsessed with finding out about the value of his stock portfolio, and he and Picard have a conversation about how money no longer exists. But I don't recall any episode that really explores the idea of a post-scarcity world (which is essentially communism I suppose)
  - jhoelzel 4y ago
    they only have intrinsic value to begin with. The bragging is basically a cultural think in your circles so no i dont see them becomming that.
  - ihatepython 4y ago
    One thing to keep in mind is that in the 24th century, there still is no cure for baldness.
ihatepython 4y ago
I don't think he has an understanding of history, or how the economy and monetary systems work in general. The value of things are cyclical, especially during times of war and times of prosperity. Everything goes up and down in value. It seems that Sam is assuming that the current political structure and monetary system will remain intact in perpetuity.
- flangola7 4y ago
  History has never had transformative AI. What is coming is unprecedented and has no historical parallel, certainly not once it is very advanced.
  - ihatepython 4y ago
    Human emotions have never changed throughout history, the reaction will always be the same. Technology simply changes the medium, but the end result remains the same. Transformative AI falls into the category of technology.
    - flangola7 4y ago
      > Human emotions have never changed throughout history, the reaction will always be the same. This will not necessarily true with advanced AI. In fact it most likely will not be true. > Technology simply changes the medium, but the end result remains the same. Transformative AI falls into the category of technology. (Advanced) AI is fundamentally different from every other technology.
      - satvikpendem 4y ago
        I'd rather say genetically biological changes would change human emotions more so than AI. We do see some effects through social media but it's still the same base emotions being amplified. However, imagine wholly new emotions arising from genetic germ cell engineering.
- Spooky23 4y ago
mikewarot 4y ago
Privacy, true privacy, the ability to act without concern that you are being spied upon by adversaries is going to be very highly valued. That's why I only want to run AI on my own hardware. I don't need spies living rent free in my brain every time I'm playing with Stable-diffusion, etc. So, I think general purpose computation and tools that you can own, or share with a small group, will be quite valuable in the future.
- jhoelzel 4y ago
  I think this is the answer. Privacy and i would add anonymity. I am pretty sure, by now, chatgpt has collected enough input from me that in combination with my public profiles, it can tell me what kind of cornflakes i like...
mola 4y ago
He forgets about violence and control.
codeGPT 4y ago
[dead]
quickthrower2 4y ago
If margin cost of "inteligency" hits zero, that is surely the AI singularity, or something close. Until then people will have jobs, even if it is variations of "AI Manager".
AnimalMuppet 4y ago
Personal contact. A genuine smile from a human being. A moment of genuine human contact, when you and another person touch each other's lives. The more AI takes over (if it does), the more those things will be precious.
BBC_Goons 4y ago
If AI is real success, it will grow exponentially there would not be time to worry about art. Scenario 1: AI is superior to humans in all respect and will superseed humans. Scenario 2: AI sees some value in humans, so will preserve or merge with humans. Scenario 3: Humans are still in control of AI but see no value in other humans. 3a: Get rid of excess humans 3b: Create hybrid humans, for the sake of preservation Scenario 4: Humans are still in control of AI and see value in other humans that simply can not be replicated. This might lead to an emphasis on non material aspects of life, of which I know not. But I can at least agree that our material experience can not even fathom an infinite space.

23 points by monkeyonethe 4y ago

hislaziness 4y ago

NFTs?

bitxbitxbitcoin 4y ago

Wrap around porches are quite the status in some places.

jjdeveloper 4y ago
May be true for America but not so much on houses here in Australia

Handprint4469 4y ago

> Is art going to be a part of the small amount of things that retain value? It depends on how you define art. Creativity and intelligence are highly correlated, so if AI capabilities (intelligence) keep going up, it's only a matter of time until AI becomes very good at creating art that is enjoyed and consumed by humans. On the other hand, with a bit of semantic sleight-of-hand, you could re-define art so that it only includes things made by humans, and try to artificially keep the price high that way. But I don't think it will work the way you expect it to. Rather, art made purely by humans will become a status symbol and it will be expensive not due to being technically superior, but due to its relative scarcity compared to AI-generated art. And the market for it will be much smaller than today, due to the overabundance of AI-generated art.

shagie 4y ago

Art, from an artist, that you can hang on a wall has been and will continue to be a status good. Stock art, as a clip art or a background image to a web page hasn't been a status good. Things posted in /r/art (and similar) are not goods but rather adverting and validation. The key differentiator in this is the craft that goes into the art. I have some photographs hat I've purchased at art festivals that hang on my walls - and some I've taken myself. Those are still status goods. The craft needed to shoot a photo that can be enlarged up to 2' x 6' is quite different than the craft needed to create a digital image that looks good at those resolutions. (controversial part here) A lot of hobbiest artists that work for commission are the most threatened as their art hasn't ever been status goods and doesn't retain value. At the same time, the scale that they work in is one offs rather than doing a print run of 250 and selling those framed. The thing is, I don't particularly want to buy a picture of someone else's cat. And if I can take a picture of my cat and use img2img to make it in to an image that I'd print out at Kinkos and put in a $5 Target picture frame that I'd then put in my bedroom... that's a commission that someone else might not have gotten. That image will never show up on Antiques Roadshow. It will never be a numbered print that is auctioned off. It doesn't retain any value. However, that copy of a Peter Lik print that I've got hanging - well, that's a status good. The print cost a bit and the framing cost a bit... and I make considerations about where to hang it in a room so that the sun doesn't shine on it. Yes, art that involves craft will retain value and will remain in the category of status goods. Art that is a one off commission is likely to lose what value it had and can be done cheaply without the artist. Art that you buy at an art festival or gallery will be rather unchanged - though the people who are just after "stuff" will likely find it easier / cheaper with AI generation than paying a premium. AI generation is still a long way from doing fiber art or the physical sense of presence with a impasto painting ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impasto https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impasto ) - yes, might be able to get the same image digitally, but the paint on canvas isn't there yet (and when it does, it will be interesting - but then the craft will be in the machine doing it rather than the painting - I'd love to have an original print from a Jaquet-Droz automata - not for the artistic quality of the image on paper but what it represents).

kerpotgh 4y ago
There’s going to be plenty of “art from an artist” that going to be AI art. If that gets caught enough we’re either going to have to put blinders on or find a foolproof verification third party.

toomuchtodo 4y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veblen_good https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veblen_good Watches, wines, designer anything not made by AI. Check out episodes of Star Trek: The Next Generation with regards to exploration of ideas of value when goods come out of a replicator and experiences out of a Holodeck at zero marginal cost.

monkeyonethe 4y ago
which episodes of Star Trek should I watch? I feel like watches and designer good could be easily designed by AI, no?
- kingkongjaffa 4y ago
  Part of the point is people buy the status and the history of the brand. If the brand is consistent with the customers values. If it comes out of a cold lifeless machine and not the warm hands of human craftsmanship, is it the same thing?
- ihatepython 4y ago
  > which episodes of Star Trek should I watch? Perhaps 'The Neutral Zone' season 1 episode 26. There is a cryogenically frozen person brought back to life, and he is obsessed with finding out about the value of his stock portfolio, and he and Picard have a conversation about how money no longer exists. But I don't recall any episode that really explores the idea of a post-scarcity world (which is essentially communism I suppose)
- jhoelzel 4y ago
  they only have intrinsic value to begin with. The bragging is basically a cultural think in your circles so no i dont see them becomming that.
- ihatepython 4y ago
  One thing to keep in mind is that in the 24th century, there still is no cure for baldness.

ihatepython 4y ago

I don't think he has an understanding of history, or how the economy and monetary systems work in general. The value of things are cyclical, especially during times of war and times of prosperity. Everything goes up and down in value. It seems that Sam is assuming that the current political structure and monetary system will remain intact in perpetuity.

flangola7 4y ago
History has never had transformative AI. What is coming is unprecedented and has no historical parallel, certainly not once it is very advanced.
- ihatepython 4y ago
  Human emotions have never changed throughout history, the reaction will always be the same. Technology simply changes the medium, but the end result remains the same. Transformative AI falls into the category of technology.
  - flangola7 4y ago
    > Human emotions have never changed throughout history, the reaction will always be the same. This will not necessarily true with advanced AI. In fact it most likely will not be true. > Technology simply changes the medium, but the end result remains the same. Transformative AI falls into the category of technology. (Advanced) AI is fundamentally different from every other technology.
    - satvikpendem 4y ago
      I'd rather say genetically biological changes would change human emotions more so than AI. We do see some effects through social media but it's still the same base emotions being amplified. However, imagine wholly new emotions arising from genetic germ cell engineering.
Spooky23 4y ago

mikewarot 4y ago

Privacy, true privacy, the ability to act without concern that you are being spied upon by adversaries is going to be very highly valued. That's why I only want to run AI on my own hardware. I don't need spies living rent free in my brain every time I'm playing with Stable-diffusion, etc. So, I think general purpose computation and tools that you can own, or share with a small group, will be quite valuable in the future.

jhoelzel 4y ago
I think this is the answer. Privacy and i would add anonymity. I am pretty sure, by now, chatgpt has collected enough input from me that in combination with my public profiles, it can tell me what kind of cornflakes i like...

mola 4y ago

He forgets about violence and control.

codeGPT 4y ago

[dead]

quickthrower2 4y ago

If margin cost of "inteligency" hits zero, that is surely the AI singularity, or something close. Until then people will have jobs, even if it is variations of "AI Manager".

AnimalMuppet 4y ago

Personal contact. A genuine smile from a human being. A moment of genuine human contact, when you and another person touch each other's lives. The more AI takes over (if it does), the more those things will be precious.

BBC_Goons 4y ago

If AI is real success, it will grow exponentially there would not be time to worry about art. Scenario 1: AI is superior to humans in all respect and will superseed humans. Scenario 2: AI sees some value in humans, so will preserve or merge with humans. Scenario 3: Humans are still in control of AI but see no value in other humans. 3a: Get rid of excess humans 3b: Create hybrid humans, for the sake of preservation Scenario 4: Humans are still in control of AI and see value in other humans that simply can not be replicated. This might lead to an emphasis on non material aspects of life, of which I know not. But I can at least agree that our material experience can not even fathom an infinite space.