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This isn't another 2000 crash. The internet is much, much larger today. And the prize you get for being #1 in any market is enormous. It's so large that it pays

by gizmo 4y ago

This isn't another 2000 crash. The internet is much, much larger today. And the prize you get for being #1 in any market is enormous. It's so large that it pays to gamble with questionable growth strategies in the short term. Reasonable growth that balances LTV and CAC is nice and pragmatic but it's not a winning strategy when your competitors are putting the pedal to the metal.

ghiculescu 4y ago
On the contrary, I think the internet being bigger means the prize for being #2, 3, etc is great too. Very few markets are actually winner takes all.
- leetrout 4y ago
  Yep! And the second / late mover advantage. For any that are unfamiliar: https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/the_second_mover_advantage https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/the_second_...
  - hackernewds 4y ago
    Jack Dorsey often says. You don't need to be first to market. You just need to be best to market. Demonstrated through Twitter, and now Cashapp
    - NegativeK 4y ago
      I'm reminded of the scene in Margin Call[1]: "There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat." [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hhy7JUinlu0#t=6m22s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hhy7JUinlu0#t=6m22s
      - Eisenstein 4y ago
        That line was specifically about financial markets, not products.
        hef19898 4y ago
        In my opinion, this line is valid for business in general.
- coffeebeqn 4y ago
  Also people thinking that Google and Meta won’t be looked at like Oracle and IBM in 10-20 years are probably way too confident in the status quo
  - somsak2 4y ago
    Microsoft was founded before oracle and is among the top 5 largest tech co's. IBM and oracle may not be as big as they used to but they're still huge. oracle in particular is at a near all time high.
    - rrrrrrrrrrrryan 4y ago
      It's funny to see how people on this site so vastly overvalue organic growth and undervalue inorganic growth. (It makes sense given the target audience, obviously.) You can absolutely grow a company by all metrics (revenue, income, market share, market cap) just by having a bunch of MBAs that make well-negotiated acquisitions. It's basically all IBM and Oracle do these days: buy up smaller B2B software, integrate it into their portfolio as a new product or a feature for an existing one, then sell the hell out of it to their existing customer base.
      - coffeebeqn 4y ago
        They do seem to have shrewd b2b sales but my point was that at one point people actively wanted to work there and were excited about their new releases. They were the biggest company in the SP500 in 1981-1988
kolbe 4y ago
"the prize you get for being #1 in any market is enormous" I believe this for broad markets with network effects (though see how quickly tiktok obviated facebook), but for companies that send out text messages to your customers or host your application in the cloud, which are examples of the creme de la creme of 10s startup success, it matters a lot less. These companies have no moat, no future, and are purely designed to be vehicles that take money out of the pockets of pension funds and give it to financiers.

by gizmo 4y ago

ghiculescu 4y ago

On the contrary, I think the internet being bigger means the prize for being #2, 3, etc is great too. Very few markets are actually winner takes all.

leetrout 4y ago
Yep! And the second / late mover advantage. For any that are unfamiliar: https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/the_second_mover_advantage https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/the_second_...
- hackernewds 4y ago
  Jack Dorsey often says. You don't need to be first to market. You just need to be best to market. Demonstrated through Twitter, and now Cashapp
  - NegativeK 4y ago
    I'm reminded of the scene in Margin Call[1]: "There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat." [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hhy7JUinlu0#t=6m22s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hhy7JUinlu0#t=6m22s
    - Eisenstein 4y ago
      That line was specifically about financial markets, not products.
      - hef19898 4y ago
        In my opinion, this line is valid for business in general.
coffeebeqn 4y ago
Also people thinking that Google and Meta won’t be looked at like Oracle and IBM in 10-20 years are probably way too confident in the status quo
- somsak2 4y ago
  Microsoft was founded before oracle and is among the top 5 largest tech co's. IBM and oracle may not be as big as they used to but they're still huge. oracle in particular is at a near all time high.
  - rrrrrrrrrrrryan 4y ago
    It's funny to see how people on this site so vastly overvalue organic growth and undervalue inorganic growth. (It makes sense given the target audience, obviously.) You can absolutely grow a company by all metrics (revenue, income, market share, market cap) just by having a bunch of MBAs that make well-negotiated acquisitions. It's basically all IBM and Oracle do these days: buy up smaller B2B software, integrate it into their portfolio as a new product or a feature for an existing one, then sell the hell out of it to their existing customer base.
    - coffeebeqn 4y ago
      They do seem to have shrewd b2b sales but my point was that at one point people actively wanted to work there and were excited about their new releases. They were the biggest company in the SP500 in 1981-1988

kolbe 4y ago

"the prize you get for being #1 in any market is enormous" I believe this for broad markets with network effects (though see how quickly tiktok obviated facebook), but for companies that send out text messages to your customers or host your application in the cloud, which are examples of the creme de la creme of 10s startup success, it matters a lot less. These companies have no moat, no future, and are purely designed to be vehicles that take money out of the pockets of pension funds and give it to financiers.