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WW3 is not going to happen. Proxy wars like Ukraine, yes. But not all out WW3 for the following reasons: 0. If some European countries were not tied to NATO, t
by _448 4y ago
WW3 is not going to happen. Proxy wars like Ukraine, yes. But not all out WW3 for the following reasons:
0. If some European countries were not tied to NATO, they would not have supplied arms to Ukraine. Look how much time it took for Germany to agree to send tanks to Ukraine. France was also not keen on the war and Macron was involved in early negotiations.
1. The EU is already thinking of having its own army so that it is not reliant on the USA. This is being spearhead by France.
2. The so called powerful countries were not able to defeat a rag-tag group of ill armed terrorists after 20 years and spending trillions of dollars on bribes and modern weapons. Most of them have learnt that in this day and age wars are not viable. It just increases immigration.
3. Look at some of the countries that are not siding with the countries against Russia: India, China, Israel, Saudi Arabia and South Africa. Out of these, Israel and Saudi Arabia are US allies; India is a QUAD member, and South Africa is a major African economy and part of BRICS. Watch a recent podcast interview of ex-Israel prime minister Naftali Bennette on who really was responsible for escalating the Ukraine war. He, like French President Macron, was involved in early attempts to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
4. India, which this year will be hosting G20 summit, has started talking about the "Global South", the countries that are already struggling financially and due to climate change. This group will be given a voice for the first time in this "exclusive club of the 'rich'". Most of the world have different priorities and want to move away from the cold-war like situation, let alone a world war. They have their citizens to look after and fight poverty and climate disasters.
5. A full-scale war between India and China is unlikely because both have an agreement that they will not use lethal weapons on the border. The last time they fought war, that was in 2020, and both sides used sticks and stones. I am not kidding, two nuclear powers fought a war with sticks and stones! The only lethal weapon used was batons wrapped with barbed wires to kill Indian soldiers.
6. India is not going to attack Pakistan because Pakistan has openly declared that it will use tactical nuclear weapons against India if there is an attack.
7. China will not attack Taiwan because it already did a trial run in Hong Kong of its strategy and to test to what level the rest of the world will intervene. China will not take control of Taiwan by force. It will take indirect control of its parliament, and then overtime it will take complete control. It knows the risk of direct war.
The template for wars in this age is what is happening in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Ukraine. It will be proxy wars, and the losers will be the "pawn countries". These pawn countries ultimately get divided on sectarian, ideological or religious lines.
The news channels earn their bread and butter by scare mongering. So don't always believe in what they say. The most who benefit from wars is defense industries, finance industry (due to money laundering), news media and politicians, in that order. Everyone else loses.
- poushkar 4y agoHow much of the region history do you know? Russia has been invading countries for centuries. You are fooling yourself by reducing the complicated history and relations between Russia and Ukraine to some kind of semi-conspiracy theory about proxy wars and what's not.
- _448 4y agoWell why single out Russia then? Since the end of WW2, which countries have invaded other countries the most? And what was the outcome of those invasions? Get answers to these questions and you will know what I mean. All wars that have happened since WW2 are proxy wars. The west never learn the lesson after WW1 that humiliating a defeated country gives rise to characters like Hitler. After the fall of the USSR, if the west had put in an effort to mainstream Russia rather than make a scene out of it(remember that famous Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin press conference outside White House?) Even after that, Russia tried to guage the seriousness of the west (most notably NATO, because that is where the problem lies) to accommodate Russia. The Russians (Gorbachev himself had said this many times in interviews) that there was a promise from NATO to not expand eastwards because NATO was after all formed as a military alliance against Russia. Realising that is not going to happen, Russia used another track, of applying to NATO. The argument the Russians made was that if NATO is not an anti-Russian alliance then it should be allowed to join NATO too. This was the bonhomie period between Russia and the west(remember Putin being welcomed both at Downing Street by the UK prime minister and by the US President at his ranch?) In fact Russia was also very instrumental in providing logistical and intelligence support to NATO in the very early days of the "war on terror". Russia also expedited boundary resolution with some of its neighbours as that was one of the conditions put by NATO for Russia to be included in NATO. Having realised that NATO was not going to induct Russia, the Russians declared the now famous redline to NATO that it will not tolerate NATO missiles at its borders (the same way US did not tolerate USSR missiles in Cuba). Ukraine became a red flag for Russia because not only it would have bought NATO missiles to its doorsteps but it would have choked them in the black sea. Watch Adam Curtis documentary on this subject and the background to this geopolitical chess game. Having said all this, I am a believer in what Mahatma Gandhi said "an eye for an eye makes the whole world blind". But I am also a realist. I know that the world is not rational. As the US reacted to the Cuban missile crisis, Russia is reacting to the NATO expansion. And no one really cares about the "pawn states". That is why I will urge you to watch Naftali Bennett's podcast interview. What surprises me is that had NATO expedited Russian inclusion into NATO, it would have to concentrate only on "containing" China. Now, not only has that pushed Russia into China's orbit, it has opened a two front "war" in Europe and Asia!