5 ms·

>quite trivial to create a competitor. I dont get it though, if its that easy why is there no meaningful alternative to openai now? or are you arguing that tha

>quite trivial to create a competitor. I dont get it though, if its that easy why is there no meaningful alternative to openai now? or are you arguing that that will happen later on once its (even more) established?

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> why is there no meaningful alternative to openai now Is GPT that far ahead of other LLMs?
logifail 4y ago
> why is there no meaningful alternative to openai now Alternative to do what, exactly? Were people asking each other "why is there no meaningful alternative to tulip bulbs?" early in the year 1637...?? Can't help thinking that the people getting rich off gold rushes are often the ones selling shovels...
- janalsncm 4y ago
  That isn’t quite fair. Tulip mania was a bubble because it was a greater fool scheme. The only purpose of the commodity was to sell it to a “greater fool” at some time in the future. This is analogous to the crypto bubbles that happen every few years. OpenAI has created actual products which have some value. Dall-E is useful to people for what it is. Codex has limitations but some people find it useful. GPT3 and ChatGPT are definitely not general purpose problem solvers but for the people who use them they have value.
  - logifail 4y ago
    > OpenAI has created actual products which have some value Value? One headline from last summer was "OpenAI announces pricing for DALL-E 2: AI images are almost free"[0]. [0] https://the-decoder.com/openai-announces-pricing-for-dall-e-2-ai-images-are-almost-free/ https://the-decoder.com/openai-announces-pricing-for-dall-e-...
mjburgess 4y ago
OpenAI haven't invented anything with a "competitive moat" right? They've created a product which uses ideas and data that are largely available to everyone. It's not a pharmaceutical-drug type invention. If they hadnt been bought my MS, their revenues were going to be in the $20/mo subscriptions. And you'd quickly find a lot of people offering $5/mo for 80% of the quality which would be "just fine" for many cases. (Eg., consider copilot). The valuation of OpenAI is because it was clear a player like MS would buy it, since the marginal economic value of that technology is to a large incumbent who can quickly deploy it "in the places it's needed". It's that ability to deliver "when needed" which enables MS to draw value from it: ie., MS is just capitalising on it's current position with customers. The AI bit is actually providing a trivial amount of profit over-and-above MS's existing position with customers.
- verbify 4y ago
  Isn't there a pretty big cost in training these LLMs?
  - mjburgess 4y ago
    One that prevents you from competing, but not most larger tech companies. If you think if it like any other product, the picture is clearer. A startup invents a widget whose production costs are somewhat high, but there's no patents/etc. So all major players could invent their own. Where's the value? Just in the sale to a major player.
    - verbify 4y ago
      I hear you. What do you think of the time/expertise/tooling it takes to train these models (and that's it's an iterative process and openai has a significant head start). This strikes me as more than a 'first to the gate' advantage (but perhaps less than a traditional moat).
Izkata 4y ago
Seems to be on its way: https://laion.ai/ https://laion.ai/

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

> why is there no meaningful alternative to openai now Is GPT that far ahead of other LLMs?

logifail 4y ago

> why is there no meaningful alternative to openai now Alternative to do what, exactly? Were people asking each other "why is there no meaningful alternative to tulip bulbs?" early in the year 1637...?? Can't help thinking that the people getting rich off gold rushes are often the ones selling shovels...

janalsncm 4y ago
That isn’t quite fair. Tulip mania was a bubble because it was a greater fool scheme. The only purpose of the commodity was to sell it to a “greater fool” at some time in the future. This is analogous to the crypto bubbles that happen every few years. OpenAI has created actual products which have some value. Dall-E is useful to people for what it is. Codex has limitations but some people find it useful. GPT3 and ChatGPT are definitely not general purpose problem solvers but for the people who use them they have value.
- logifail 4y ago
  > OpenAI has created actual products which have some value Value? One headline from last summer was "OpenAI announces pricing for DALL-E 2: AI images are almost free"[0]. [0] https://the-decoder.com/openai-announces-pricing-for-dall-e-2-ai-images-are-almost-free/ https://the-decoder.com/openai-announces-pricing-for-dall-e-...

mjburgess 4y ago

OpenAI haven't invented anything with a "competitive moat" right? They've created a product which uses ideas and data that are largely available to everyone. It's not a pharmaceutical-drug type invention. If they hadnt been bought my MS, their revenues were going to be in the $20/mo subscriptions. And you'd quickly find a lot of people offering $5/mo for 80% of the quality which would be "just fine" for many cases. (Eg., consider copilot). The valuation of OpenAI is because it was clear a player like MS would buy it, since the marginal economic value of that technology is to a large incumbent who can quickly deploy it "in the places it's needed". It's that ability to deliver "when needed" which enables MS to draw value from it: ie., MS is just capitalising on it's current position with customers. The AI bit is actually providing a trivial amount of profit over-and-above MS's existing position with customers.

verbify 4y ago
Isn't there a pretty big cost in training these LLMs?
- mjburgess 4y ago
  One that prevents you from competing, but not most larger tech companies. If you think if it like any other product, the picture is clearer. A startup invents a widget whose production costs are somewhat high, but there's no patents/etc. So all major players could invent their own. Where's the value? Just in the sale to a major player.
  - verbify 4y ago
    I hear you. What do you think of the time/expertise/tooling it takes to train these models (and that's it's an iterative process and openai has a significant head start). This strikes me as more than a 'first to the gate' advantage (but perhaps less than a traditional moat).

Izkata 4y ago

Seems to be on its way: https://laion.ai/ https://laion.ai/