7 ms·

Sounds fantastic, but if we look at the history of the EU's Galileo GNSS [0], massive delays can be expected. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_(satell

Sounds fantastic, but if we look at the history of the EU's Galileo GNSS [0], massive delays can be expected. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_(satellite_navigation) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_(satellite_navigation)

0xDEF 4y ago
There was little demand for non-GPS satnav. There is plenty of demand for non-Musk satcom.
- ilyt 4y ago
  There is demand for good satellite internet. There is no demand for something more expensive than starlink, aside from government stuff and you need consumers to support it and not be money pit
  - usrusr 4y ago
    Exactly: any constellation built with pre-falcon9 rockets might be non-Musk, but it won't even be remotely starlink-like. They'd inevitably aim for orbits higher than "throwaway-LEO" and the much sparser constellations those orbits enable (lines of sight less constrained by horizon) will cause considerably more latency (far from geostationary-bad, but a meaningful quality difference) even if the inherent SNR drawbacks were somehow solved. It seems quite rational for governments to desire a fallback, but it won't ever be more than that and as long as starlink is on the market any hope for significant customer contribution seems unwarranted. Without rocket parity to f9, it's just hopeless to get meaningful customer contribution as long as starlink exists. At least as long as they don't find some miracle tech to massively extend VLEO lifetimes (solar powered VLEO Bussard jet or something similarly far out), but even with that the numbers required would be virtually unachievable without an f9 equivalent (it's a somewhat crazy project even with the f9!). They should absolutely go for it, if they consider having a starlink fallback worth the investment, but they should really not base that decision on illusionary hopes for customer contribution.
    - panick21_ 4y ago
      Amazon basically bought every available heavy lift rocket for the next decade in an attempt to compete with Starlink.
      - kortilla 4y ago
        All 8 of them?!
      - usrusr 4y ago
        They did? Guess we might have to readjust the meaning of "state actor"..
        panick21_ 4y ago
        https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/amazon-signs-rocket-deal-with-blue-origin-arianespace-ula-for-project-kuiper-internet-satellites.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/amazon-signs-rocket-deal-wit...
- sys42590 4y ago
  The whole controversy around Musk is mostly a North American topic. I'm pretty sure that most Europeans that were left out in the rain regarding useful Internet speeds would love to use Starlink (if they can afford it) no matter which crazy billionaire owns the satellites.
  - palata 4y ago
    I am European and I hate Musk, but that's not the reason why I wouldn't use Starlink. I just don't want commercial companies to send hundreds of thousands of satellites and pollute my sky, just to enable more consumption in a world that has passed its limits.
- mardifoufs 4y ago
  For terminally online people, prehaps. But in real life, no, people aren't generally obsessed by twitter drama. Real life usage is what matters, and if it's good enough for the ukrainian army in an active war zone...
  - vore 4y ago
    Well, the guy who owns SpaceX seems to care a lot about Twitter drama...
  - ohgodplsno 4y ago
    [flagged]
    - dmix 4y ago
      They cut off access to military drones... drones which will still have access to military satellite data feeds from NATO countries. Yet every video posted on Reddit of commercial drones used by UA soldiers is still obviously using Starlink. Beyond drones it's still a critical asset, probably as much or more important than Javelins / HIMARs. This is a PR move, since Starlink is trying to deploy globally it doesn't look good when they are supporting a military. Making it seem like you're ostensibly a civilian org is a wise move, while in practice Starlink remains the #1 technical contribution by a foreign entity supporting the war effort. Of course, what it actually means IRL won't stop the people looking for a villain and spreading FUD as if they cut off the entire military.
    - dragonelite 4y ago
      Because Russia might just blow up LEO satellites, civilian objects/devices can now be blown up for national security reasons, the US recently normalised it with their weather/spy balloon saga.
  - t43562 4y ago
    It's not good enough for them because Musk seems to be limiting its use in line with his political views.
- Ekaros 4y ago
  Do we need satcom if we have good enough terrestrial communications? EU is reasonably densely populated. So why just not go with simpler and maybe even cheaper terrestrial solutions?
  - palata 4y ago
    Because we've polluted the ground so much that it's hard for one company alone to really pollute significantly more. But polluting space around Earth is brand new, so a few companies are rushing to leave their mark there.
- ClumsyPilot 4y ago
  > There was little demand for non-GPS satnav. Gallileo can detect a distress beacon in the middle of the pacific ocean and send gelm. No other system can do that. Civilian gallileo has better accuracy than GPS or any competitors. Every mibile phone has multi-system reciever and accuracy of navigation has tripled in the past 10 years precisely because Gallileo and Glonass and the chinese system went online.
  - kortilla 4y ago
    > Gallileo can detect a distress beacon in the middle of the pacific ocean InReach does that, no?
inglor_cz 4y ago
There are entire palettes of fantastically sounding plans to be found in Brussels. Don't get your hopes up.
- yvdriess 4y ago
  Europallettes, yea
- Ambolia 4y ago
  Remains to be seen how the German economy evolves and if they are going to pay for it, because other EU countries probably won't.
  - permo-w 4y ago
    that’s not really how the EU works
  - inglor_cz 4y ago
    [flagged]
    - Ambolia 4y ago
      Most europeans countries have worse demographics than Japan if you don't count migrants.
      - peterfirefly 4y ago
        And even worse if you count them. The age distribution is not nearly as important as the skills distribution.
      - inglor_cz 4y ago
        True, but we were speaking about Germany's ability to pull economic growth specifically. Italy won't be saving European economic growth anytime soon, possibly ever, even though I actually love Italy.

0xDEF 4y ago

There was little demand for non-GPS satnav. There is plenty of demand for non-Musk satcom.

ilyt 4y ago
There is demand for good satellite internet. There is no demand for something more expensive than starlink, aside from government stuff and you need consumers to support it and not be money pit
- usrusr 4y ago
  Exactly: any constellation built with pre-falcon9 rockets might be non-Musk, but it won't even be remotely starlink-like. They'd inevitably aim for orbits higher than "throwaway-LEO" and the much sparser constellations those orbits enable (lines of sight less constrained by horizon) will cause considerably more latency (far from geostationary-bad, but a meaningful quality difference) even if the inherent SNR drawbacks were somehow solved. It seems quite rational for governments to desire a fallback, but it won't ever be more than that and as long as starlink is on the market any hope for significant customer contribution seems unwarranted. Without rocket parity to f9, it's just hopeless to get meaningful customer contribution as long as starlink exists. At least as long as they don't find some miracle tech to massively extend VLEO lifetimes (solar powered VLEO Bussard jet or something similarly far out), but even with that the numbers required would be virtually unachievable without an f9 equivalent (it's a somewhat crazy project even with the f9!). They should absolutely go for it, if they consider having a starlink fallback worth the investment, but they should really not base that decision on illusionary hopes for customer contribution.
  - panick21_ 4y ago
    Amazon basically bought every available heavy lift rocket for the next decade in an attempt to compete with Starlink.
    - kortilla 4y ago
      All 8 of them?!
    - usrusr 4y ago
      They did? Guess we might have to readjust the meaning of "state actor"..
      - panick21_ 4y ago
        https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/amazon-signs-rocket-deal-with-blue-origin-arianespace-ula-for-project-kuiper-internet-satellites.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/amazon-signs-rocket-deal-wit...
sys42590 4y ago
The whole controversy around Musk is mostly a North American topic. I'm pretty sure that most Europeans that were left out in the rain regarding useful Internet speeds would love to use Starlink (if they can afford it) no matter which crazy billionaire owns the satellites.
- palata 4y ago
  I am European and I hate Musk, but that's not the reason why I wouldn't use Starlink. I just don't want commercial companies to send hundreds of thousands of satellites and pollute my sky, just to enable more consumption in a world that has passed its limits.
mardifoufs 4y ago
For terminally online people, prehaps. But in real life, no, people aren't generally obsessed by twitter drama. Real life usage is what matters, and if it's good enough for the ukrainian army in an active war zone...
- vore 4y ago
  Well, the guy who owns SpaceX seems to care a lot about Twitter drama...
- ohgodplsno 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - dmix 4y ago
    They cut off access to military drones... drones which will still have access to military satellite data feeds from NATO countries. Yet every video posted on Reddit of commercial drones used by UA soldiers is still obviously using Starlink. Beyond drones it's still a critical asset, probably as much or more important than Javelins / HIMARs. This is a PR move, since Starlink is trying to deploy globally it doesn't look good when they are supporting a military. Making it seem like you're ostensibly a civilian org is a wise move, while in practice Starlink remains the #1 technical contribution by a foreign entity supporting the war effort. Of course, what it actually means IRL won't stop the people looking for a villain and spreading FUD as if they cut off the entire military.
  - dragonelite 4y ago
    Because Russia might just blow up LEO satellites, civilian objects/devices can now be blown up for national security reasons, the US recently normalised it with their weather/spy balloon saga.
- t43562 4y ago
  It's not good enough for them because Musk seems to be limiting its use in line with his political views.
Ekaros 4y ago
Do we need satcom if we have good enough terrestrial communications? EU is reasonably densely populated. So why just not go with simpler and maybe even cheaper terrestrial solutions?
- palata 4y ago
  Because we've polluted the ground so much that it's hard for one company alone to really pollute significantly more. But polluting space around Earth is brand new, so a few companies are rushing to leave their mark there.
ClumsyPilot 4y ago
> There was little demand for non-GPS satnav. Gallileo can detect a distress beacon in the middle of the pacific ocean and send gelm. No other system can do that. Civilian gallileo has better accuracy than GPS or any competitors. Every mibile phone has multi-system reciever and accuracy of navigation has tripled in the past 10 years precisely because Gallileo and Glonass and the chinese system went online.
- kortilla 4y ago
  > Gallileo can detect a distress beacon in the middle of the pacific ocean InReach does that, no?

inglor_cz 4y ago

There are entire palettes of fantastically sounding plans to be found in Brussels. Don't get your hopes up.

yvdriess 4y ago
Europallettes, yea
Ambolia 4y ago
Remains to be seen how the German economy evolves and if they are going to pay for it, because other EU countries probably won't.
- permo-w 4y ago
  that’s not really how the EU works
- inglor_cz 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - Ambolia 4y ago
    Most europeans countries have worse demographics than Japan if you don't count migrants.
    - peterfirefly 4y ago
      And even worse if you count them. The age distribution is not nearly as important as the skills distribution.
    - inglor_cz 4y ago
      True, but we were speaking about Germany's ability to pull economic growth specifically. Italy won't be saving European economic growth anytime soon, possibly ever, even though I actually love Italy.